Blind Echoes

Janet Yellen regrets saying inflation was transitory... Well, who put this old fart in charge of whatever she's doing over there because she is clearly useless. I know meme accounts on Twitter that do better at the economy than she does. I guess deflation is still a few good months if not years away and my prediction for oil severely dumping this year might not come true.

I've been wrong so many times in the past and will be wrong so many times on so many things in the future as well. Being wrong is an inherent part of our existence as a species, but some things are intentionally wrong like politicians and media narratives and so on and so forth.

The media blamed and trashed El Salvador all over the place a couple of years ago for Bukele's decision to get hard on Bitcoin. As a matter of fact, when El Salvador declared Bitcoin legal tender, the IMF referred to that as the road to self-destruction. Three years forward, and that decision was more than profitable.

El Salvador is sitting on nice profits with Bitcoin and will do great over time. They have even initiated recently a governmental buying challenge of buying one BTC every day for as long as that will be possible by using cash. This guy knows something... I like leaders like Bukele, but there are very few of them out there.

Personally, I don't believe cash is going anywhere anytime soon, and we are far from getting to the Bitcoin standard, but that does not mean crypto should be ignored. If you're into crypto and Bitcoin becomes the norm, great; if it doesn't and you're into crypto and made some really nice profits on the way, that's good too.

At the end of the day, no matter what you get involved with, if it improves your life and overall well-being, then it is worth the effort, risks, and energy. If not, you should ditch it. I am following some dude on YouTube who is doing charts all day, and he quite often says that he actually hates crypto...

He is into crypto just to "make it" this cycle, put something like $2 million in the bank, and earn interest on that. It's shortsighted to me because if he'd bother a bit documenting certain crypto projects such as Hive, he would find out about HBD savings which offers 20% APR on your locked HBD. I don't blame these people.

I try and learn from them as I am mostly interested in studying the psychology of crypto rather than what charts are saying. I have high respect for people who do charts, but they sometimes miss some important things in the equation.

Recently, I was told about some dude I know that he had something like $2,000 worth of BTC that he acquired back in 2021 for $500 which he now sold to pay for his vacation in Spain. It's kind of early to sell at this point in my opinion.

We can't say we are still in the disbelief phase of the market anymore, but I don't see euphoria either, and that is my exit plan: to start dumping on euphoria. We were in "greed territory" on the fear and greed index for Bitcoin a couple of days ago, but that's not a top signal to me.

When the market will be in extreme greed for something like two months in a row, it is definitely time to exit... We are not there yet, though. We will probably be in a few months from now, maybe a year. I'm throwing assumptions here; I don't know anything for sure.

All I know is this cycle is different in the sense that fuel for the crypto rise is different, old narratives are about to die, and new ones will emerge. Bitcoin is dipping over the weekend, something like a month away from the halving, but will for sure recover on Monday when ETFs start buying again. At some point, the ETFs will diminish their buys, and that will be a good metric/signal top saying it is time to jump off the ship...

What do you think?

Thanks for your attention
Adrian