Defense Mechanisms

Looks like the everything bubble keeps inflating relentlessly, and before you know it, we will enter the final stages of the 18.6 years cycle (borrowed notion/term) when the winner's curse kicks in. The winner's curse refers to the stage of a bull market/boom cycle for any market where every pleb makes money investing and starts feeling like the king of the world.

For the past decade, no matter what piece of land or type of real estate you would have bought, you would have been on profit year on year, and when it comes to crypto, the situation is relatively the same. From cycle to cycle, almost any shitcoin out there has outperformed its previous performances.

The S&P 500 literally had a god candle yesterday after the FED meeting where stagnation was announced regarding propping up or lowering interest rates. Bitcoin has done pretty well over the past 24 hours as well, and $61,000 might have been the bottom for the current correction. I know that some are still waiting for $58,000 or even lower, but we might not see BTC correct that low.

After all, we've had an over $13,000 correction from the local peak recently. How much lower would anyone expect to see Bitcoin correcting during a bull market? Yes, we are in a bull market; the majority has reached a consensus in that regard, but for some, I was nothing but a lunatic calling Bitcoin doing bull market things back in early 2023.

I don't own Bitcoin, and I am not exposed to Bitcoin in any way, but I do pay a lot of attention to Bitcoin because it is dictating what the broad market does. Altcoins are still lagging a lot in terms of bull market performance when compared to Bitcoin, but let's not forget that once altcoins such as DOGE, XRP, and others start awakening and partying, the show will be epic.

I mentioned XRP, and some will throw a lot of hate at me for this one because XRP is seen as the banker's crypto, and we crypto dudes hate the banking cartel. But if you check some of the charts some guys are throwing on Twitter, you will see that the upside potential for XRP is massive.

But this post is not about XRP; it's about the current bull market, which in my opinion will end sooner than the previous ones, my bet being on early 2025 when the world realizes that the world is indeed fucked whether Trump gets elected or not. He is not going to save anything because he is not in charge of anything.

Some argue that this time is different and that ETFs won't allow BTC to enter a bear market because the boomers are buying Bitcoin through these ETFs. Wrong, completely wrong. If you check the data on ETFs, you will notice that over the past three days since the correction became more severe, the net flows have been negative for the ETFs market.

If these guys sold BTC at $74,000, you think they won't be doing that at $150,000? Come on, stay true to yourself and don't fuck up this bull market as you did back in 2021 and 2017... I know I am doing things differently this time because I feel "this time is not different." Every rally needs a cool-off period, and for crypto and probably the S&P 500 too, the chill time will come sometime in Q1 of 2025.

A while back, I shared an interesting old chart predicting the best investing and profit-taking times since the early 1750s, and after changing my smartphone, I lost this old gem, but luckily @edicted had it saved and gave it back to me. If you pay attention to the chart, you will see that 2026 is the year you should become highly fearful.

Why do I say highly fearful? Because as a contrarian, one should become fearful when others are greedy and vice versa. When mass euphoria becomes palpable, and that will happen relatively soon when the world will be fooled into believing we are transitioning to a Bitcoin standard financial system, it's when profit-taking should be on your mind (and mine).

Don't necessarily wait for the year 2026, but rather focus on the sentiment of the market and keep in mind that the bull market is in, and it might last until 2026. It might, but it could also pop up earlier... Stay prepared and be a contrarian; it will pay off.

That's about it from my side; I wish each one of you here will make it this bull market and will change their lives for the better, and if you do that, don't forget to help the less fortunate ones as well.

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian