How Much Gas Left, Sir?!

The next Bitcoin halving is now less than three weeks away, and when that happens, the daily amount of Bitcoin produced will be cut in half from 900 BTC per day to 450. There's no supply cut (there are still 21 million Bitcoins in existence), but the newly mined Bitcoin is drastically reduced, meaning all the ETFs soaking up Bitcoin on a daily basis will have to take their share from somewhere.

Sure, miners will sell, investors will sell, but will they meet the demand for these ETFs at the current price levels? I don't think so. If it weren't for Grayscale outflows, I believe BTC would be around $100,000 by now due to the aggressiveness of buying we witness from these ETFs. I wonder how much Bitcoin retail investors are still buying.

I bet it's not much... Now, considering the strong buying pressure combined with shrinking production, it's basic math that the price will shoot through the roof, but for how long and how high?

Typically, BTC has peaked around one and a half years after the halving, which would put the theoretical Bitcoin top for this bull market sometime in late 2025. How high will it rise at the peak? Some say $300,000, others are betting on just $150,000, while there are degenerates claiming BTC will reach one million this cycle.

What I've been paying attention to lately is how BTC is holding above its 2021 ATH and how long it took in the past before it peaked. According to history, it took BTC something between 9-11 months to peak after it broke past its previous cycle peak. Worth noticing is that some are considering the $64,000 peak more than the $69,000 one when analyzing the data.

Now, since we're discussing absolute peaks in this post, we'll take the $69,000 one as a landmark for determining when the potential peak will be this bull market. So, it seems that on March 11, 2024, Bitcoin reached the level from which it fell into a bear market back in 2021, that being $69k.

Based on this data, we should expect the BTC top sometime in late 2024 (November to be more exact) and January 2025, if, of course, BTC respects its previous bull market patterns of topping out something like 9-11 months after breaking above the previous cycle peak. All of this is supposition; don't base your bull market strategies on anything I write. I have a long history on Hive of being far off from the truth in terms of predicting the market.

Why would Bitcoin not follow the same length patterns it had back in 2017 and 2021 when it comes to the duration of the bull market counted from the halving landmarks to its peak? Because of these damn ETFs accelerating everything.

However, there will be a bear market settling in probably next year, as at some point, investors will sell. I do not believe in no exceptional rise without a drastic fall, and what we see now is definitely a bull market type of rise. Whether BTC will top in November this year, January of 2025, or sooner, we will have to see.

I am paying close attention to these metrics, though, the lengths of time I mentioned above in the post, and also the level of extension the price can get to. If, for example, we see BTC at $200,000 and a total market cap for crypto at around $10T by August or something like that, I will not be waiting for any other metric to convince me the show is about to end.

I do not base my strategies on only one metric, but there are a few that I really pay attention to, and RSI at the moment is not one of them... What do you think?

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian