Macro Thoughts

Americans are once again influencing the price of Bitcoin... Have you noticed the trend? For the past few days, it's been a case of "once Americans wake up, it's dumping time" 😄. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but...

It's no coincidence that the halving happens every four years. Believe it or not, we're just a day and a half away from the next halving. JPM has announced that the halving is already factored into the price, and they might be right about that. But the supply shock hasn't been factored in yet.

As mentioned in a few previous posts, Bitcoin is rapidly leaving exchanges. Coupled with a decrease in supply from miners and the inevitable accumulation by ETFs, we could find ourselves in the midst of the next market surge before we know it.

Markets move in waves. This is something many people overlook, something that took me years to grasp. But once you start understanding these waves, you can make a significant impact on your own financial journey and those around you.

You think you want to get from $10k to $100k, or $100k to $1 million

However, no matter what level you make you will want MORE!

Therefore, your real goal is to get to $100k without dropping back down to $10k.

Can you learn to KEEP what you make? That's when you have made it!
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What a thought-provoking tweet! Some of us are already seeing our portfolios inflate to unimaginable levels, or are on the brink of it. But how many will handle the bubbling phase of this bull market properly? Remember the DOGE millionaire? That guy who turned a few grand into a million, only to watch it all deflate into oblivion once again...

"Don't be that guy." That's what I keep reminding myself. It's tempting to try and catch the top, to maximize your gains in this bull market. But those who attempt it often end up like the folks lately trying to buy coins at the lowest possible prices.

Most alts are down close to 40% for the month. How much further do you think they'll fall? BTC is around 18% down from its all-time high, following the typical pattern before soaring to new heights. So far in this bull market, it hasn't corrected more than 22%.

In 2017, 40% corrections were common. That might not be the case now, but don't expect astronomical returns either. In my opinion, the shallower the correction, the less potential for upside. I'm no wizard, but if you ask me, the top for BTC is around $140,000, and it'll happen sooner than many think.

The SPX seems to be forming its blow-off top, and crypto's latest bull market phase won't last long after the equities peak. The profit-taking phase is approaching, but many will once again miss it because they're too focused on turning a few grand into millions, instead of gradually taking profits as we climb higher.

I wouldn't take profits at the moment, but once BTC nears $100,000 and surpasses it on the way to $150,000 (and probably even more), I believe profit-taking should be a priority. You don't have to sell everything at once, just as you don't have to buy everything in one go.

I doubt I'll get rich in this bull market, but at least I know I'll be making positive financial changes. Two messed-up bull markets in a row are more than enough.

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian