First Binance, Now Coinbase? Could There Be A Massive Rally Around The Corner?
Alright let's start with the full disclaimer here:
This is probably just copium. I'm not a trader or analyst. I'm just someone who has seen certain patterns before in my years in crypto and is trying to connect the dots.
First the SEC goes after Binance, then literally the day after they go after Coinbase. Two of the top exchanges in the world serving huge markets. We are most definitely in the 'Then they fight you phase' of the journey.
All of it just feels so...calculated.
Why now? What has Binance done differently recently that gave the SEC reason to pursue? Why let Coinbase go public in 2021 if you had issues going back to 2019? Why name specific coins and projects in the lawsuit when you've been so vague in the past? Why leave out Ethereum after all that back and forth?
So many questions...
It feels like May of 2021 when the Elon tweet about energy usage got tag teamed with China banning crypto along with a bunch of other FUD that was rehashed by mainstream media. It also feels like November of 2022 when FTX went under and we got what we hope are the lows for this cycle.
So why am I feeling so bullish? Because history shows us these types of targeted campaigns can only hold the market down for so long. In 2021 we ended up with a double top and in early 2023 we saw Bitcoin do a 2x from the $15.5k low.
The way I see it, there are 2 likely scenarios: 1) People get scared and dump, smart money loads up, then we're off to the races. 2) People don't get scared and we continue business as usual.
Both of these end the same way.
I'm not saying we are going to hit new all time highs, I don't believe that will happen until at least another halving and we clear up a lot of the macro issues. But Bitcoin could 2x from here to hit $50k and still be significantly lower than it's ATH and the alts would have a field day.
Maybe that happens, maybe it doesn't. All I know is the next 6-12 months are going to be anything but boring when you have inflation, rate hikes, a banking crisis, a bond crisis, and a bitcoin halving in the mix. Time to strap in and grab some popcorn.
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I wouldn't be surprised to see new all time highs before the halving this time and then a sell off when the halving happens. Its too well known and its not nearly as impactful anymore. 92% of all bitcoin has already been minted, the halving cycle is likely over. I'd argue the last run had little to do with the halving and more to do with investing manias and institutional investing. And we knwo the fall had nothing to do with bitcoin.
Anyway, I agree with this. I'm fully expecting a bull run soon. Macro has already cleared up. There will always be things out there that look scary in the macro but markets go up anyway.
There is going to be more pain in the fall and especially winter when the holiday consumer bump is missing for corps and Q1 2024 should be brutal. However, the halving event and tighter spending should make for a great time to load up before fireworks next spring/summer heading into Q2 and Q3 imo.
I'm not convinced we have any real fireworks until late 2024 or even 2025.