RE: LeoThread 2025-05-26 22:29
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The idea is worth further consideration. When the QQQ ETF debuted in 1999, its peak occurred precisely 54 weeks later, and BTC's peak on January 20th also came 54 weeks after its spot ETF launch.
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QQQ’s cycle went from 48 → 120 → 63 → 103 → 20, while BTC's numbers show 48 → 109 → ?? → ?? → ??. If this represents a left-translated cycle, a macro lower high may appear around Q2/Q3, similar to the QQQ scenario.
The strongest counterargument would be BTC finding support at or above its 2024 high of $73k. Back in 2017, BTC fell to its 2016 high—a drop of 35%—before the cycle resumed normally.
If BTC slips significantly below $73k, a multi-month countertrend rally towards a macro lower high later in the year becomes more likely, and the peak might be reached.
"One potential explanation may lie in this idea.
The QQQ reached its top 54 weeks after its ETF launch, and BTC did the same so far. While this isn’t set in stone—and a right-translated cycle akin to normal would be ideal—exploring such theories can aid in managing risk appropriately."