70 chests will do

over 1 year ago

70 chests.png

There are about 5 days until the end of the season and I'm up to 55 Silver chests. My experiment to stick with Silver league, instead of moving up to Gold league at the end of the season seems to be paying off.

I have to admit though, climbing up the ranks has not been as easy as I expected because of the level of competition. However, I think it'll be more profitable to continue brawling for Silver chests every season.

In terms of my brawling activity, this season has had a slow-start mix. I've been consistent enough to participate in battles every day but there have been days when I end with only 4 chests from my daily quest.

I would have preferred to be more active during the season but things tend to get in the way and I have to adjust my schedule accordingly. In any case, I think I've done pretty well so far but I also think a late push could get me to an even better position.

Is 70 possible?

The main reason I decided to stay in Silver league, instead of moving up to gold league was because I decided to chase quantity over quality. The plan is pretty straight forward; I intend to offset the difference between Gold chests and Silver chests by accumulating a lot more silver chests and getting them silver rewards.

At my current level, the rating points I earn from winning battles could actually push me close to the 70 silver loot chest target pretty fast. This would ideally offer better rewards than what I'd have gotten with the gold chests I accumulate.

Even at the peak of playing, I only managed to accumulate 45 Gold chests, which I think is a fair result considering I spend virtually the whole season in Silver league. However, to validate my decision to stay in Silver league, I have to be ending the season with almost twice the number of Gold chests I'd have accumulated and 70 chests should be the bare minimum.

For what it's worth, Gold chests aren't exactly twice as good as Silver chests. The difference between Silver and gold chest is marginal, and with a minor calculation based on information in the game, we can estimate the number of Silver chests I need to match 45 Gold chests.

So, according to the game, there's a 0.8% chance of getting a legendary monster and a 2% chance of finding a gold foil asset in a silver chests. For Gold chests, there's a 1.2% chance of finding a legendary monster and a 3% chance of finding a gold foil monster.

The preceding paragraph means that Gold chests are roughly 33% better than Silver chests. This was calculated by dividing Silver chest chance with Gold foil chance and subtracting it from 1. It is a rough estimate and just meant to be used as a reference point, in reality, things are much different.

So, based on this finding, if I end the season with 45 Gold chests, then i should at least get 33% more Silver chests to offset the difference. According to my calculation, that puts it at around 60 Silver chests.

It is important to note that this is just a rough estimate and is only theoretical. In reality, things tend to be much different but I believe that with some dedication, I'll be able to finish the season with 70 Silver chests.