When to buy the next Silver dip? Jackson Hole Symposium and the end of BTC cycle?

“All I know is in a split second; my money is gone.” That’s how a bull must have felt over the past few days when the market suddenly went bearish. ETH price dropped to below $1500, and the silver price dropped to below $19, wiping out all the gains of the recent relief rally. Is it true that winter is imminent? I believe no one has the definitive answer to the question. But from now on, my strategy will focus mostly on smaller DCA because no one knows how deep the market goes. I’ll be very cautious while catching falling knives.

Where to buy the next silver dip?

How deep does the bear market bottom go? Perhaps this is just the beginning of the deleveraging. When you gaze into the abyss that’s the bottom of this bear market, you see a black hole sucking all the liquidity, and there’s no real bottom at all. Most bulls, including myself, must have underestimated the strength of this bear, and I am afraid what’s yet to come is a cold and long winter for all non-dollar assets.

Jackson Hole Symposium

Every market in the world, from stocks to commodities, reacts dramatically to it. The Federal Reserve delivered a speech on August 26. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) goes up more than 20% amid the speech. The VIX is essentially a fear and greed index for the stock market. The crypto fear and greed index plummeted to 28, which looks like Investors are still showing a high degree of optimism considering the fact that Bitcoin just dropped below 20k. The Fed was very hawkish in during the speech and dropped bombshells that crashed all the markets except the dollar.

So, what should one do now? If you are a day trader, volatility is your friend. For long-term holders, it is prudent to continue holding large caps and initiate DCA. Be very conservative about buying the dip, as the winter could be long and brutal..

When it comes to Bitcoin, I currently have a very negative outlook. I don’t really believe in stuff like the image above because it failed to consider the long-term debt cycle of the U.S. economy, which is roughly 50-75 years long. Numerous analysts believe that deleveraging has only just begun. I don’t know. I just think extrapolating based on a 4-year cycle of a tiny digital asset (Apple’s market cap is bigger than all the cryptocurrencies combined) while ignoring a greater cycle at play is utterly foolish. But at the same time, I don’t want to be like the boomer financial or economic experts; they missed all the astronomical gains of cryptocurrency and are perpetually furious about it.

[Credit: Ray Dalio]

All the ideas expressed above are my personal views. In light of that, please take it with a grain of salt and no financial advice juice.