What is the worst scenario for Vladimir Putin, Putin could be about to live precisely his worst nightmare and believe me it has nothing to do with Ukraine or with the Wagners but with Turkey.
Imagine a global chessboard where every move, every piece changed has far-reaching consequences for world powers, now envision just two consecutive moves that could tip the board unfavorably for Putin.
An electoral defeat of Erdogan in Turkey and after that Turkey's accession to the European Union, Russia and the United States are risking their geopolitical destiny in an election, in the election of Turkey.
Allow me to take you through this Russian nightmare or Russian paradise, the same for the West, this kind of geopolitical check, friends, that seems to be drawn on the horizon as a threat.
Turkey, a nation of vital importance for Russia and for the West, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been a crucial player in the relationship between the two countries, but what would happen if Erdogan loses the elections and if Turkey's next leader decides to orient himself, more than west side and join the European Union.
For years Erdogan has maintained a delicate balance between East and West, and has known how to play his chips very well, playing with the Russian cards and at the same time with the European cards always in his favor, however, a change in leadership could now unbalance this balance and the impact on Russia would be very significant.
Imagine Turkey with its strategic location, its strong economy and its status as a member of NATO, joining the European Union, this would be a real nightmare for Putin, you know why? Because this would mean a tightening of the European borders around it and a neighbor less susceptible to his influence.
These two points, Erdogan out of power in Turkey and Turkey united with the European Union, this chess move can become so threatening for Russia, here geopolitics, strategy and of course alliances come into play.
Putin's power rests on his ability to keep its borders secure and his sphere of influence intact, which is why the discourse that Putin has held on Ukraine was a vulnerability of its borders with the approach of NATO, it is something that he repeated a lot in their speeches, but these movements would jeopardize that security and that influence.
Putin has prided himself on maintaining control of his influence, but these seemingly independent but closely linked in their impact moves could challenge that control, just think about this, Putin has carefully built his relationship with Erdogan and allowed him to maintain some influence in the region and keep NATO at bay; Do you remember who was the one who initially opposed the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO? Erdoğan.
The loss of Erdogan would deprive Putin of a crucial Ally and a Turkey with more European direction and more direction to be an Ally of the United States would be a thorn in the heel for Russian influence, Turkey which is a NATO member state is currently at the crossroads of its future, the nation has been under the administration of erdogan for almost two decades, by the way, almost the same time that Vladimir Putin has been at the head of power in Russia, are contemporaneous with a time in which the relationship between Turkey and Russia has certainly oscillated between cooperation and confrontation but they have always maintained a tendency towards the balance of mutual understanding without Turkey losing its relations with NATO.
Could all this change with a new leadership in Turkey, could erdogan lose power and unleash the worst nightmare for Vladimir Putin.
The worst? Worse than everything else? Do you think President Erdogan is a despot and that the next one is some democratic will of the people that will break ties with Russia and alienate them, because that's what the people want?
You act as if its two people, not millions, and you start off with a guarantee of what happens should Erdogan lose, as if you know what the future is.