Bitcoin Breaks All-Time High in Euros

We are in the 9th week of 2024 and so far all I can say is that things seem to be looking good for crypto. Bitcoin is approaching its all-time high in USD. In Euros, British Pounds, and a slew of other currencies, Bitcoin has broken all-time highs! And that may be somewhat surprising, to say the least.

The fact that Bitcoin has already reached a new all-time high in this other currency can be explained by several factors, including currency fluctuations (probably the big reason for this difference), economic factors, trading activity, and liquidity. But no matter how you look at it, reaching a new all-time high BEFORE the halving was not the general expectation but now certainly seems within reach. And if you consider that the real bull market has yet to start, many people are adjusting their already high expectations even higher.

And that sounds very nice, but it also brings dilemmas for others. Because when is the time to sell? If Bitcoin enters a bull market before the halving and can reach a new all-time high, when will that bull market end? We now know that timing the top is virtually impossible, but you also don't want to pull the trigger too early. How should we view this new situation? It should now be clear that the Blackrock and Fidelity ETFs are participating, and that is not about small boys. We are talking about the big boys here, they are throwing billions at a time to buy Bitcoin. Compared to these guys, even the biggest investors of the past are suddenly babies. And that immediately makes this a very uncertain factor.

Although they throw around billions to buy, they suddenly withdraw those same billions when they sell, which can cause the price to drop very quickly. And they aren't looking at you or me. Do you have your plan ready yet?

Correction Coming?

And it is of course not without reason that I ask whether you already have a plan ready because it is of course still crypto that we are talking about. Crypto always involves volatility, right? How many times in the past have we seen Bitcoin rise around 27% and continue unhindered? In any case, it is rare for Bitcoin to rise by 27% in just a week.

What many people forget is that normally after a significant increase, a correction will also have to be taken into account. Until now that has always happened, every bull market Bitcoin has gone through major corrections on its way to a new all-time high. And it would be very exceptional if we now continue undisturbed from a real bottom position to a new all-time high.

So what I, like many analysts, am starting to wonder is whether we are on the eve of a (major) correction. It's not entirely impossible. To be honest, it would almost make me 'happy' at this point because Bitcoin would then show a more familiar pattern. I can anticipate something I know. A new style of bull market is more difficult to anticipate and then the only option left is to react. However, analysts are now predicting a possible correction of around 20 to 25%... and that wouldn't be completely unknown to people who have been in crypto for a while. It could be painful for people who buy as in the past when Bitcoin is already on the rise. If the correction that is predicted by several analysts comes, Bitcoin could fall back to around 46,500 USD. And no matter how painful that can be, if you pay attention and can anticipate instead of react, it also offers opportunities!

Crypto Outgrown Its Infancy

In any case, what we can now slowly conclude is that crypto has grown beyond its infancy. You will slowly see the violent corrections decrease. For example, if we look back at the 2017 cycle, we count no fewer than SEVEN major corrections of Bitcoin on its way to the top. These corrections had an average relapse of 32%.

A positive development for investors is the decrease in the severity of corrections as the crypto market matures. To illustrate, there were seven significant corrections during the 2017 cycle, with an average pullback of 32%. The next cycle leading to the all-time high of USD 69,000 already had somewhat friendly conditions for the investor. This cycle had FIVE corrections that had an average pullback of about 24%.

In the current cycle, FOUR corrections have been seen so far. These had an average relapse of 21%. You could say that the corrections are becoming less intense, which means that volatility could very slowly become a thing of the past. This indicates a growing maturity of the crypto market, and it is beneficial for most investors. But the downside is that if the violent price fluctuations become a thing of the past ... the extreme profits in relatively short periods are also over.