RE: LeoThread 2026-06-08 16-49

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Perhaps half a dozen hedge fund managers could actually model these scenarios; almost everyone else appears to be shooting in the dark, or worse, shooting themselves in the foot

leofinance
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This phenomenon is notable in much of the discussion around Hormuz
Who should be trusted for analysis of systems as complex and reflexive as energy?
Apparently not the IEA

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Is it even possible to make meaningful predictions for out-of-distribution shocks like a strait closure, given all the second-order effects that must be modeled?
Are all forecasts fatally conceited?

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