Spill The Hot NFT - A Possible End Game
Hey Jessceptics
I've had a rant about NFT's previously, and the more I watch this unfold, the more of an absolute shit-storm I see coming. As the prices of NFT and the convenient public increases, you're seeing a money-hungry swarm of "artists" descend on NFT platforms ready to make their first crypto millions.
We're saving the art world one NFT at a time, giving back their creative rights, cutting out the middle man, bla bla bla bla bla. I imagine some people believe this but seriously has anyone taken the time to look at these FOR-PROFIT VC funded dapps that are NFT platforms?
They're just spinning up these services out of the goodness of their own hearts.
The starving artists will be no more right? NFT's are here to bring value to creative work; yes, I've heard the altruistic pitch all before, and man, what a load of horse shit?
Whenever I hear this altruistic bile being spewed, I know it's just to obfuscate the absolute garbage that is sold as revolutionary. It's like asking someone why did you steal grandmas purse and they like me? Steal? Look at all these bibles in my room; how could I steal?
I've seen this all before; the stronger the altruistic pitch, the smellier the turd you get at the end. The ICO market was full of tokens to save the whales, tokens to solve gender pay issues, tokens for this and that.
NFT's right now is just a new wrapper for the same old shit.
I have absolutely nothing against going on and making money, and by all means, you artists do your thing, get your money, honey. But don't give me this pitch that we're doing the world a favour man, you're just a money-hungry little shit like the rest of us, and NFT's are your gig of choice.
Just because it's art involved doesn't make it all the nobler.
Now, as more people flock into NFT's to get their piece of the digital pie, they're associating their wallets, identities and work with a network that could be fraught with potential scandal along the way.
Remember I mentioned these platforms have a profit motive? Well, when you have a profit motive, you tend to let a lot of things slide for the sake of mo' money.
As they say mo' money, more problems, but they don't say WEN problems arise, usually with any frenzy the good effects hit first, now that we're all good and coked up and on a high. The comedown eventually shows up, and man, is it a brutal cold turkey.
The silent crash
NFT's are a new market, and pricing anything will be a topsy turvy thrill ride; those that have benefitted from this mini gold rush will naturally be biased towards its value, but any market has two sides. The whole appeal of NFT art is that it is "rate" and illiquid. There are only a few available, so illiquidity means prices are bid up as people want these items.
However, the market also has another side; I guess people don't realise prices can go down when all you hear are prices go up. When illiquid assets are dumped on the market, there is very little by way of resistance, and off-loading these things can crash prices faster than they would fungible tokens.
You can easily see prices drop by more than half in an overnight spell in an illiquid market.[3]
But that's dumb; why would anyone sell at such low prices? Gosh, can you wait? I am getting there. For the same reason, people are buying these things at high prices, making sense n a second.
The end game
In the end, there is no end up, this thing will continue in different forms, but this current end game, I see playing out a lot differently. NTF's have become quite the market for wash traders [2] to buy and sell assets between each other and create a record of losses they can use to write off against their gains in other trades and thus claim tax benefits based on blockchain data.
We're also hearing rumours of people using NFT's as a way of laundering funds through an NFT, so they send tainted coins to buy an NFT and then sell it for non-tainted coins.
[1] I see a big call to having these NFT markets regulated, and since few of them are actually decentralised, if any, they will have to comply or be put out of business. Once AML/CFT regulations come to NFT platforms, you can bet your arse the amount of capital flowing through to it will dry up in a major way.
There will be a market for art NFT's, but this big hype will crash and bring about a forced repricing. There will be NFT DEX's that show up, and people will continue in that fashion, but this trend, I think, will hit its peak in 2021 the same way ICO's peaked out in 2017.
Sources:
- [1] - cryptonews.com
- [2] - techcrunch.com
- [3] - cointelegraph.com
Have your say
What do you good people of HIVE think?
So have at it, my Jessies! If you don't have something to comment, "I am a Jessie."
Let's connect
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I think it's good to have an option. I am not into NFT but what I can think of is to have two sets of portfolio one for the NFT and other which you always have. In that way you are not only making money but also safeguarding what you have already or you are going to create as an no NFT mode.
I guess you can see it that way but I'm not a fan of diversification for diversification's sake, just because you split up a portfolio and purposefully added dog shit to it doesn't make it better.
I just see the current frenzy as a roach motel pulling in a lot of bag holders who are going to get the rug pulled. To each their own, everytime one of these things flop just makes Bitcion holders that much more wealthy as capital consolidates once again
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This jessie cannot purport to understand half of what you've written but informative as always. Now that I'm back in town perhaps you can explain to me how this nonsense works... 😂 I'll even pay for the coffee of you draw a picture whilst explaining. Have a great Saturday!
LOL sure, I'll be happy to take you through it if you're willing to listen, just make sure you bring with a grandpa or panado for the headache you're going to have after that coffee
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.... 😆😆😆Imagine the blog post i can write about that... 😂 Cool beans... Will stock up on panados.. 😂
Let's be honest here on a few things.
NFTs do have a very good possibility to really cut out the middle man and help music artists as a new form of generating revenue without someone taking massive cuts of their profits.
Yes, some bad shit will go down. Always does bad shit goes down with FIAT all the time NFTs and crypto no different so to say that is kind of a broken record.
Almost all NFT marketplaces are regulated already so you're going to have to report it no matter what and you should be reporting your crypto anyways. I don't care how against the government someone is if you're not reporting it your breaking the law and risk fines if not more such as jail time.
There is still a huge place for NFTs fully regulated. NFTs when used correctly without shady ass people serve a huge purpose and honestly a wave of the future in terms of artist, music and many more implications which are still not even thought of.
I don't feel like money will fully dry up I believe it will slow down but as more legitimate sources come into the mix it's going to boom up again. You saw what happens with influences like Elon musk talk about dogecoin and bitcoin it sparks a rally. Now imagine that 100x as popular music artist start selling tickets, art, tracks etc.
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I don't understand how it cuts out the middle-man, perhaps reduces the cost of the middleman, but you still need to use a service and pay them to mint it, then you still need to find marketplaces to sell it, isn't that middlemen?
NFT memorabilia perhaps is direct sales but anything that has any tangible value like something tickets or art/music with royalties or ownership attached to it WILL need a middle man to back up the authenticity of the claims by the NFT.
Sure it's an improvement on the trading of stock certificates or contract ownership but people are confusing an NFT with it being a bearer asset which it's not.
I realise we live in a narrative-based game, and it's more about the story and sounding good and as you mentioned above a call from authority like Elon means more than any fundamentals, but doesn't mean I can't say its stupid lol
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I guess that is middle man but it's a lot less of a middle man. The music and art industries are weird and a lot that people don't see. There are so many people that take cuts of the profits that the artist is left with nearly nothing. For instants take Apple music a $0.99 track only earns the artist about $0.64 because the payment processor takes a fee, apple takes a fee and you nearly cut your profits in half because of it. Now list this same track yourself on a market place with a far less fee (now of course we are not there yet with Ethereum) but you now have a higher income per track sold. So maybe not cutting out the middle man but at least getting your deserved cut. This music industry is abusive AF in terms of fees towards artists.
lol, I agree with you it's stupid on the point of influencers but honestly that's now a large majority of people act anymore. They follow, already spent their next paycheck and so on. It for sure has a very real possibility to fuel a massive market and shift things into NFTs Even though things are dying down I have a strong feeling it's going to come back with a vengeance at some point.
It reminds me of 2017 rally where everyone was buying whatever shitcoin possible. Then it died off for years and reparked as more real world use cases came to be. I strongly feel we will be moving in that trend again. It might not be 3 years though it most likely will be shorter.
I don't disagree there, entertainment is a racket with many leaches in the system, just like a lot of industries, I can see it in marketing too where I am in.
If as you say these NFT platforms are regulated and arent a DOA then that means there's an entity behind it with a profit motive. So how much NFT trading is actually wash trading? We know exchanges do it all the time, why wouldn't I wash trade on my own platform and then sell the story oh artists on xx site are making bank, its manufactured press driving a marketing funnel
Like I mentioned I am a marketer so I see things always through that lense
I think I'm also a little harsher this time around since in 2017 i was a newb that drank the kooliad and bought into the sales pitches of all those shitcoins and I'm just seeing striking similarities and feel like it will end up the same way.
Personally I stay away from all the art NFTs and stick purely to game NFTs. However the game has to be playable and I can earn crypto with it. So games like Splinterlands, Rising Star and Alien Worlds work for me. Though the only one I actual put money into is Splinterlands (before I learned about HIVE). The rest I earned without investing any fiat.
There are many games out there on WAX with no game play or way to earn crypto and I won't spend a dime on them. Though I am considering the possibility of buying packs and trying to flip them for a profit. Of course the money I am putting into this flipping business is house money made from my crypto gaming rewards.
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I totally get gaming NFTs since they have utility in the game and the game acts as the authority verifying if the NFT works and is valuable
As for art I’m not sold on it at all, music I think needs to be done the other way around so the music is not the NFT but access to the file is the NFT your alley allows you access to the file that’s it and even then sound can always be copied
When I see frenzies like this I always ask myself who benefits and while the artist sales get the headlines they once off sales but the platforms are making a killing quietly off people minting complete nonsense
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I think the artists were benefitting to a certain extend but I do think now, the corporations and those seeking money are now taking a large piece of the current pie.
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It’s a great camouflage for a lot of shady stuff, allowing artists to mint their work and using it as a vessel for other things it’s the same as many funds do startups, fund it get it going even if it’s a total piece of shit they just try to hit certain numbers to try and sell it on to the next person
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https://peakd.com/decentralized-media/@nonameslefttouse/its-post-time-on-decentralized-media
Read the Wen NFT part at the end.
I've been watching closely. Feeling like the only artist in the world right now not minting NFT. I like the concept. Too much greed and the middleman is on drugs. NFT Showroom on Hive seems reasonable though. Should have a future. But read that post.
I do think it has a future, this is just a transition phase, but I'd like to just be a smug arsehole and say I told you so, hence putting this on chain with dates so I can reshare it in a few months time lol
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I like hearing the various perspectives. I don't shy away from things if it's something I might not want to hear. I want to know what the critics are saying.
Me too! I'm well aware that I have biases and I probably don't even know what they are and sometimes I do react when people challenge by thinking but then I'll go away and sit and think about it and I think this place has helped me with that since there's quite a few opinionated peeps here
So many times I wanted to punch the screen when artists and scammers were explained as one in the same. Then I started looking closely and no, they're not scammers, but they are chasing money blindly and missing the mark on business sense. And of course have to add in the disclaimer. Some, not all.
I have been trying to wrap my head around NFT's, or well, not so much really, but well, I still have so much to learn when it comes to the technology. I'll research this more so I might understand it better.
Looking forward to seeing what your research unravels, always keen to see how other people see these developments :)
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Yeah i think laundering is the only explanation for those big sums of money. Art's always been a good tool for laundering because of the subjective valuation.
Nothing like a good old inflating of your numbers to make you seem more successful I’m beginning to think that finance takes a lot of tips from social media like who cares if it’s bot accounts look at all my likes and followers
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thank you very much for the post,have a great day and good mood
understand fully your concerns, once heard it was compared with the ico bubble so that everyone can just put anything he wants on these nft platforms. also think that many artists disappear after the bull run in nowhere but the good ones will remain... general value I see already behind tokenized art :)
Yeah everyone can mint something but some just get the luck of the draw from wash trading whales and then because we conflate money with value we think that person art is now more valuable than others.
There are going to be a lot of people who end up minting art that never gets bought and those that have had a taste of a sale will continue to mint thinking they going to hit it big again.
I don't think tokenised art goes away, I just don't particularly see where the value comes from, a lot of valuable art only gains value after the artist dies since its a guarantee of scarcity now people can just keep making pieces so supply will eventually kill demand
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the supply and demand thing can really be true, but i think it always depends: if you make 10 artworks a day, maybe the supply exceeds the demand. but if you only make one artwork in your whole life, it probably won't be worth much, even though the supply is very tight, because you can't really measure it if you've only painted one artwork. collections are also very popular with nfts. i think it always depends on the size and the quality. and that you might not necessarily make 10,000 of the same artwork.
and i don't think it's just luck when you sell something, at least not when you sell more than one... i think it's mostly higher quality ones that are sold.
but i don't understand the pixel pictures either ;))
I think it’s easy to pick anecdotal evidence like the collections you mentioned but It sounds almost exactly the same as the arguements made about Crypto kitties back in 2017 they were minted and the novelty of a new application for ETH took it up and as the game grew people started minting more and more Cat NFTs to a point where it collapsed the whole thing
Cryptos kitties are still around today just like art NFTs will but all I’m saying is this isn’t going to be how it will always be, soon these whales will be into the next hype with better yields and those that actually like art NFTs will keep the market going and those crazy valuations and speculation will be a much smaller part of art NFTs sales
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hmm i don't think the hype around NFTs will die down so quickly, not until bitcoin has its bull peak.
even now there is less talk about defi but I don't think that's over yet either (though of course it's a different story with its tech).
I think the collections thing is really not an anecdote, would you buy a painting from an artist who makes a lot of different ones that have the same style but no other commonality? (although I don't know if you would buy something like that at all).
but yes I think over time as you say less is paid for the works that are really worth less
Perhaps I just don't get it, but I don't see how a unique identifier hashed into the blockchain with a link to a jpeg makes it rare or makes it valuable.
I am not saying that what the artist does isn't valuable, but why can't an artist then sell the work, not as an NFT and command the same value?
To me, people are conflating the idea of an NFT with something that offers any protection but unless the actual NFT is a native asset of something like a game, or has several oracles validating its authenticity or a central body with legal grounds to enforce anything then I where does the NFT hold any value?
Maybe I am getting too old and this new age stuff is going over my head lol
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haha lol yes i think i understand what you are saying
and i think the physical artwork should be as valuable (or is, even if you can't take it everywhere)
the only problem i see is that there is no security in the sense that i don't upload and mine the jpg on another nft platform... you have to trust the artists... you can't do that with a physical work that's why the trust is right there
That’s what I was thinking this goes against crypto as it’s trusting a platform or 3rd party..
I want to verify it, what I was thinking is if the file was secured in a way that when you buy the NFT you secure access to the file and it’s the only way you can access it that would make a little more sense to me
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you are right thats true ;) hopefully that will work some day in that way technically
thank you very much for the information, have a good day
yeah, there could be a place for NFTs, but i don't get what's going on currently. i'm not going to rule anything out as i don't really understand it, but yeah, it's over the top. after a crash maybe/probably will evolve to something better
I think the mania we're seeing in collectables such as cards, gaming consoles, sneakers and other sports memorabilia has spilled over NFT's and since these things aren't exactly rare or scarce you can keep feeding the demand till it implodes
yep ... i got a bunch of baseball cards too, but they are such a pain in the ass to try to sell