Why Vouchers will Skyrocket 100% in my opinion in the late hours of Jan 13th (First Day of General Sale)
Hello Everyone! ForsakenSushi Here with a vital revelation that has come upon me just now. Truly worthy to blog about and share with the Splinterlands Community.
So I was buying some vouchers today because I saw the price had dipped big time in terms of hive, Just now reaching lows of 1.45 Hive per voucher, or the equivalent of $1.99 USD each. I have been thinking that vouchers should be worth at least 4 dollars during general sale from the get go because they will give you the free bonus packs for bulk buys.
Of course it wont instantly jump to that price but as people purchase packs and consume the vouchers, the price will rise, and buyers will definitely be willing to pay up to $4 dollars in my opinion because of the equivalent value to the cost of a pack.
The major risk to this thesis is a titanic situation where less than half of general sale packs sell in first 1-3 days. Lets take a look at how the vouchers have fared in the recent past. The price chart of vouchers sure hasnt been pretty since the 1st phase of presale:
As you can see they have been demolished in a slow but steady, relentless grind lower, each and every day. As a matter of fact todays move down in price marks the lowest ive seen vouchers since ive been watching, and we seen to be getting quite a few panic sellers of vouchers in hive engine.
How Does my brain go from death spiral price chart to cat chillen with money like a boss? Analysis and critical thinking.
- Currently 1,754,000 Packs of Chaos Legion have been purchased out of 15,000,000 packs total.
- A total of approximately 3,100,000 vouchers will have been issued in total by the day of general sale.
- The team has told us no bonus packs will be obtained in general sale without the use of a voucher
- Assuming the most voucher conservative pack purchase options, At least 1,440,000 vouchers have been used so far out of 3.1m
- Approximately 1.66 million vouchers to accomodate general sale on day 1.
- Last AMA stated white glove sale will be approx 5m to 6m packs, this will consume at least 1 million vouchers in itself.
- Approximately 660,000 vouchers for General sale on day 1.
As you can see 660,000 vouchers is nowhere near the amount needed to supply the entire stock of chaos legion general sale if it was to sell out on day 1. It looks like between 7m and 8million chaos legion packs will be up for grabs in general sale in 3 days, I also bet, by mid day of the first day 8 hours after the start of general sale, Vouchers will easily rise to at least $3.00 USD maybe approach $3.50.
I believe I will make a bet that vouchers will rise, if they do, i will sell my vouchers, if they go down I will use them, same way I merch in my previous games.
Best of luck everyone! Great times to be a buyer of just about any splinterlands asset, its a buyers market!!
Great analysis, take my upvote fellow Wax Streeter!
Thanks brother!
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Not a bad strategy bro, I'm going to have to check those voucher prices and snap up some if the price is down! I think they will go up in value too. Too bad SPS has been down so much, but it will make up some losses soon I believe!
Yes I definitely have a feeling good things are coming for SPS and vouchers! Excited to see how the system works out for governance
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Thanks bro!
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Thanks so much! Precious Hive!!!
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But at least it puts food on the table.
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If you want to keep self-voting your comments on day 6, that's fine.. but I will continue to remove them for you.
ok thanks sir
It's very much frowned upon, give your votes to other people. You still get the curation rewards.
Well this is the first time anyone has told me this, I even searched to see if there were any articles regarding this, because obviously it was built and is an intended function. And i see things like monster curator giving 8000 spt upvotes to flauwy or other people who also run monster curator, so that is ok to you, please explain. I am giving my own upvote to myself to reward myself proportionately for legitate engagement on the hive and splintertalk ecosystem. I also give our tip tokens in almost all of my comments that i invested in and share with everyone. Please explain this to me further.
If you look at my history I upvote all engagement on all my posts im able to, and in addition outside countent curation. Thanks for taking the time to educate me on this matter which is unknown to me I look forward to your response as to the ethnical implications of the situation and the best course forward in all honesty.
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I figured you didn't know so left you the comment. Self voting your own comments has always been a no-no and discouraged. There are no hard fixed rules or instruction manual so this is often how it ends. Some people take it hard and rage quit, while others listen (like you).
You don't need to vote my stuff, I get enough already! People will notice you don't self-vote and you will get more support. Trust me... it works. There's always other low-rewarded content that could use your vote
honestly brother if you look im putting up posts and getting 1.5 spt if you in some if you take out my upvote. You have to HOPE monster curator or some big people put you on curation trail or notice you. Look back at how much legitimate content ive put up with no recognition. Since august only 1 10% monster-curator vote on all my stuff, and i even delegate 10k SPT to him. So you gotta realize its a lot of just hope or finding someone big and sucking up to them.
Im a legitimate person and level headed, as I see you are. What is the correct resolution for this, I want to be compensated for my great investment in SPT, as a matter of fact I was thinking of doing more until this situation arose. As ive said, its widely accepted that the biggest content producers do this though curation accounts, is that accepted because its veiled behind another hive "Entity". If that legitimizes it here, I dont want any trouble im trying to make a home here....
Posts are fine, comments.. let others vote them, not yourself. I'm going to leave it at this, nothing else to say. That's just how it is here.
Case in point, this post which I correctly predicted voucher prices would be going up, if I didnt upvote it, and i didnt do the weekly challenge to get steemmonster upvote, the whole payout for this amazing preview and info for the community and time and thought, was worth 10 SPT without my vote, like 3 cents. Theres so much luck factor associated with it and its frustating, you know how often ive seen posts with 1 paragraph get 8000 spt max upvote from monster-curator. Best I ever got was 10% on an amazing amazing post.
What dapp are you using, this post has pending rewards of:
I'm talking HIVE, not SPT. Are you using https://www.splintertalk.io/?
yes, splintertalk, thats what I use 99.99% of the time. I just interact with hive through the keychain and hive engine, and peakd to share the links.
OK, in that case my downvotes will remove your HIVE comment rewards but won't change your SPT ones. That's up to the SPT community to decide upon. (see below)
As you can see they are still there. I would still suggest you refrain voting your own comments. I was not picking on you, I am part of an anti-abuse group and run a custom SQL query to find the top comment self-votes. You came pretty high on the list.
As we are all stakeholders here, its in the interest of us all to maintain order. That's if there is any order on a system based on Anarchy.
I understand now, I thought you were targeting me wow I was super concerned, thanks for letting me know how this all started.
I hope you understand I am not trying to cause any problems just reward myself for what is considered legitimate activity with my legitimately acquired stake. If it becomes against the rules of the community explicitly I will of course conform, I am just trying to build up ive just started here, once I acquire a critical mass I will not engage in such activities.
I will also consider Producing my content and engagement in a different account in the future, and this will be my content curation account. I think that is the solution right?
Best wishes sir
There is no picking on people, at least not by me.
It's not what I would do as you are still voting for your own content indirectly. Yes some others do it, but that doesn't mean its the right thing to do. Where do I start...
Vote your own posts if you must, nobody will bother you for that, but comments are different. Let me give you an example. If I made 10 comments that said 'A' and then self-voted them all for $5 each, would that be OK?
Yours are on a smaller scale, but the habit needs to be curbed before it gets out of hand.
Use your large SPT stake to vote for other posts, its all about spreading your vote. You will get followers, they will look at your content, and give you votes.
After doing lots of research in the past 24 hours I came across a solution for people in my situation, its called the hive staked based income token here is there community https://peakd.com/c/hive-189312/trending
I think in your future endeavors talking to people doing the upvote thing, perhaps you can open with, hey heres an idea, you can do this to get guaranteed support for your posts as an alternative to upvoting yourself. I think that will lead to much better long term results for your sanity and the community retainment.
I also would like to point out many people do this from secondary curation accounts they own. It is an option to upvote your own comments and post, why cant we support our own legitimate engagement and I feel like you are targeting me for no reason. You or a group you support has downvote attacked my legitimate engagement in the hive blockchain today. People do this all the time from curation accounts and I dont see you targeting them, many with much larger assets than I. Do you want me to make a curation account would that make peace?
...just when I thought I was getting somewhere..., I take it all back. It's up to you, it's your stake.. and the same can be said for mine.
Im willing to change my whole situation to accomodate you and the community if that is neccesary. But I legitimately tried to build my stake if you look at my early history no upvote of myself ever, just posting and engaging and trying to build and staking every spt. I got nowhere, maybe like 60 or 100 spt in 3 or 4 months of work and good content and ideas. So then I saw an opporunity and bought SPT and staked it, did the same this month with a ton of hive powered up so id like to at least reward myself if noone else does. I think thats legitimate. I see why you are performing a just and required service for the community in order to prevent people from doing these activities with spam activities that do not provide value and serve to extract value from the blockchain and ecosystem. But i view rewarding my own engagement as just also.
Have you looked at delegating that 100k+ stash of yours to @monster-curator? I have around 70k or so and it gives me daily SPT. That's one way of using it. In your case, it's your main stash so your situation is different from mine.
yes ive been comparing the rates since im doing both. I decided I will comply with your request to not upvote my own comments even though technically there are no rules against what I was doing and it is not stated anywhere on any post that I was able to find on the hive blog blockchain or splintertalk. I recommend if this is against the rules, propose to hive witness to make a change so you cannot upvote your own post or comment or make the community standard well known, visible, and easily searchable. Take care
Don't feel you are special. Many of us will downvote those who are being selfish. You have been on here about 5 months and only have 26 followers. Maybe you should look at ways to get more to support you. You cannot rely on big accounts to do so. Look at those who are doing well and you will see they generally have a lot of followers. Your success is in your hands, but we all share the rewards pool and self-voting is seen as wrong by many.
Well it is special when it happens out of nowhere by 10-20 accounts in a coordinated fashion within 5 minutes, clearly thats not human activity brother.
And do they feel the same way about curation? The largest stakholders across every ecosystem on hive have curation accounts that upvote themselves. This is very hypocritical. You are insinuating because my content and engagement did not garner enough followers that I am selfish or bad? Im not here to "build a following" im here to blog and engage and i researched the system and this is a legitimate function and no rules against it. I am not spamming.
Yes there are downvote trails as well as upvote trails. Some people choose to lend their support to dealing with abuse in that way.
What is the point of blogging without a following? You are not spamming, but self-voting is seen by many as selfish and we have downvotes to deter behaviour we think is harmful to Hive. I'm not saying you are bad, but we can all learn. I have a big stake and never self-vote as I connected with lots of people and spent a lot of money travelling to events to meet them, so they support me. Hive is not all about 'me, me, me!'. It is a community.
Why not just take the lesson and move on? Vote up others and they might return the favour.
You are making a decent amount of HIVE. Buy more SPT with it if you like.
Peace.
Thnak you for this blog. a lot of good info! more blessings to come for you!
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