So..Long or Short ...?
Hey guys big days ahead on the trading side and on my work. I wont be able to monitor the market as i could the previous days since i am back to work after 6 days off due to having covid today i took i took a dive into markets , macro charts, read a tone of articles and saw many videos and twitter feed to see if a Long is due so thats what i concluded and i am not sure if i came to conclusion .XaXaXa.
Nice move across markets yesterday / overnight.
Now we really just need to monitor sustainability. Thus far all I’ve seen is an unwind of short’s / puts… For the rally to be sustainable we need to see a few things.
Bitcoin SPOT leading the rally – So far all we have is a perps driven rally and that could be the MM pushing up price to distribute at higher prices OR just a perp short unwind. We need to watch to see if spot buyers can step in here or higher.
BTC FLOWS – I don’t want to see spot being added to exchange on a move up – this would confirm distribution and likely supply will outweigh demand and we fall.
BTC TA – Imo we’re still in this sell side demand zone and still dealing with the buyers that bought up the failed CPI rally that are looking to get out of negative positions… Would really like to see BTC as well as other coins overcome this pool of liquidity – BTC above 21.6k would be a good start
On ETH I think 1500 levels. If ETH cant hold the 1200 levels on any downside I think we see 1000$ ETH again. So really just focused on 1500 + for now. '
VIX – This is one of the most dangerous charts imo and one that NEEDS to be followed closely. We could just be in some consolidation here before a very big upside move. The likelihood of this outcome diminishes below the 27 levels and we could see a further vix crush / equities higher. For now this chart says tread with caution
10Y Yields – Really just expecting a ABC correction move here and this could help boost markets further. However we really want to watch for a move below 2.5 to be satisfied the bond market is back on ok footing
USD – Things working well so far to get out weekly reversal confirmation candle. but plenty of time left in the week… Really we want to see a move below 103’s to feel comfortable the USD destruction is over – Until that point the bullish trend is sustained.
13/10 – CPI – The macro calendar is pretty clear for now but this is the big one I’m waiting for.
SPX – Back in the zone of interest here – 3750 – I expect some sell side liquidity to be kicking around here. If we can clear it then I expect 3800. but again we need to see evidence of a sustainable rally in both equities and BTC – Until then its just a bear market rally / Short unwind.
UK 30Y GOV BONDS – Not something I’ve ever really monitored but given what’s happened its prudent to keep an eye on this chart… The UK is currently a test subject on what happens when you QE into 10% inflation. What the UK has done thus far is quell the bleeding… If this starts to spike again then we know deeper problems are afoot and more systemic risk is on the way.
Macro thoughts
We seem to have entered a breakage phase, things are starting to come under serious stress… The Combination of PMI figures yesterday and the issues in the UK have caused traders to revise the November rate hike expectations – Now coming in at almost 5050 on a 50 or a 75 hike….
I’m currently in the camp he goes 50 and 50 in November December and that would give us a rate around 400 - 425 and this would be on a footing with CORE PCE at around 4.7 but I don’t think he pauses… No way. The mans on a mission and I think he’s happy to see some collateral damage providing nothing to systemic breaks and by 2023 I think we do see 425 – 450 and rates remain there for a number of years.
My base case is Powell wants a regime change and to go down with some serious legacy – what better way to do that than take us out of this credit dependent system that dominates and drives the feds decision making. You think a credit Suisse blowup makes him change course? No change. Just collateral damage. However a bond market / credit issue is a different story and cause for a chill out while we sit back, take stock and see what the damage is.
Due to this outlook I don’t think markets make all time highs in 2023 – I very much expect it to be the year of the crab, unemployment to steadily rise, house prices down, economic activity down, rates up and inflation yoyoing up and down.
So the best strategy is to Dca any buys for now. Even if BTC goes to 17K or 12K 19K is a very good place to buy some spot. The bottom is closer than the top