They Say September is a great to buy crypto....

..... which means a dump is incoming?

Because technically dumps are the only thing that opens up a buying opportunity. But historically we've seen crypto holders in the past (including me) hold when it's pumping and only sell when it's not dumping.

I wonder how many people actually buy when there's a bad dump, even though the history says that September will always present opportunities for people to ape in. Also, I think the "September" things is a myth to some extent.

Last year's September was not a good September to buy, if I remember correctly. Everyone was kept hearing that it was the right time, but unfortunately we never really got any dumps, and the dump only happened in October.

This is why I think that crypto has become really unique and no longer follows timeline, although it still looks similar, just not as exact as it should be.

For example I've learned that there's honestly no catching the top or the bottom anymore. Yesterday I was telling someone that a X10 (for top prediction) from a current price for an alt that didn't do so well in the previous cycle is actually a big win, so when it begins to hover around that range then a profit expectations have already been met.

So instead of saying something like "oh I have to wait for a certain period" This is the dynamics of crypto at the moment, it looks to have moved from the timeline of 2017 and 2021 to something entirely different.

A lot of alts uses to follow the movement of BTC but now it follows the movement of BNB and ETH. So basically BTC moves and it lingers until ETH begins to move.

Another example is that previously the bull or bear market has a recognizable timeframe, and is always shorter or longer, but this time, the timeframe shifts and tops at unexpected times. The dynamics of this is quite different and this is something we have to actually understand.

While there's a possibility that there's still be another dynamic change in how the market moves in 2028, I still think that this present crypto dynamics will remain like this for a while. Also these change are also a reflection of the possibility that the bull and bear market "timeline" might actually end soon, and we might be having something different.

In 16/17 years of crypto

So in the 16/17 years of crypto being here, the dynamics have changed completely and there's a possibility that more changes will happen. Apart from events like the BTC halving happen every 3/4 years window, the dynamics of pumps and dumps will certainly change, including the "sell in May and buy in September" it's already changing before our eyes.

Last cycle showed a lot of changes.

For example BTC hit it's previous ATH before the halving in 2024, which had never happen. We felt like the pump was going to be crazy, but BTC actually underperformed, and never did the expected X3 of the previous BTC top which peaked at 69k. Basically if it did, it would have put BTC at around 185 to 190k, but unfortunately it topped at 125k.

So even though a lot of gurus were talking about 240k, I personally stuck to the pattern of the previous cycle, but cycle disappointed, BTC topped at 125k and 99% of alts never hit their previous ATH which is actually expected since BTC didn't do the expected X3.

So if BTC isn't hitting the expected X3 Which puts it at 375k, at least in early 2029 or late 2028 then alts are going to massively underperform. Will BTC actually do these numbers? Again, I don't think so, because the expected patterns have changed and the dynamics are no longer the same.

I see a 200 to 220k cycle top for BTC, which means alts might not hit their ATH of the last cycles, maybe a 50% reduction or something in that range. However there's another theory is that crypto is overspent and we're due for the type of pump we had in 2021, that's basically a theory and nothing substantial backing it up.

The facts are still tilting to the idea that the dynamics have changed and this is probably what we're going to be having for a while, maybe a few years before something different happens. But truly we might be overspent and maybe the bull missed the last cycle and will not miss this time.

However, I don't believe the "September" thing is set in stone, but I'll be willing to see if September indeed will be a dump month, and present a buying opportunity.