Chinese Scientists Claim They Found a Way to Break Encryption Using a Quantum Computer

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In a 'scientific paper' published by 24 Chinese Research Scientists in late December, 2022, claim was made that they could break the RSA algorithm utilizing a quantum computer with only 372 qubits. The RSA algorithm is the most common format for online encryption and is integral in all things crypto. Should this claim prove true, the threatened ability to crack encryption is years earlier than most predicted that quantum technology could pose to the cryptoverse and beyond.

For any computer gurus out there. The 'scientific paper', above referenced, provides a brief summary of the study (that is above the pay grade of this author), as follows:

Shor’s algorithm has seriously challenged information security based on public key cryptosystems. However, to break the widely used RSA-2048 scheme, one needs millions of physical qubits, which is far beyond current technical capabilities. Here, we report a universal quantum algorithm for integer factorization by combining the classical lattice reduction with a quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA). The number of qubits required is O(logN/loglogN), which is sublinear in the bit length of the integer N, making it the most qubit-saving factorization algorithm to date. We demonstrate the algorithm experimentally by factoring integers up to 48 bits with 10 superconducting qubits, the largest integer factored on a quantum device. We estimate that a quantum circuit with 372 physical qubits and a depth of thousands is necessary to challenge RSA-2048 using our algorithm. Our study shows great promise in expediting the application of current noisy quantum computers, and paves the way to factor large integers of realistic cryptographic significance.

[Yan, B., Tan, Z., et. al. Factoring integers with sublinear resources on a superconducting quantum processor. (Accessed January 9, 2023)].

As reported in the Financial Times, the algorithm as presented in the 'paper' was used to factor a number with 48 bits using a quantum computer with 10 qubits. Admittedly, the Chinese Researchers had not attempted to up scale the process to work in a bigger environment.

Nonetheless, it must be stressed that the Chinese claim states that only 372 qubits are required to be successful. Presently, IBM is producing its 433 qubit system (Osprey), which will be available for distribution to the public early 2023. Accordingly, the technology does exist to make this claim possible.

Experts maintain that the 'paper's' theory is apparently sound. However, utilization of the theory in practice might prove to be beyond the current technological state of quantum computing.

According to Peter Shor, M.I.T. scientist, he finds nothing wrong with this theory. But Shor noted that the Chinese researchers did not address the speed at which the algorithm will run. He concluded by stating: "In the absence of any analysis showing that it will be faster, I suspect that the most likely scenario is that it’s not much of an improvement". [Waters, R. Chinese researchers claim to find way to break encryption using quantum computers. (Accessed January 9, 2023)].

Bruce Schneier, a computer security expert maintains that the 'scientific paper' fails to address whether or not the theory would work in practice. Schneier states: "We have no empirical proof that the [new] quantum algorithm overcomes the Schnorr scaling problem [...] There’s no reason to believe it won’t — but there’s no reason to believe it will". [Waters, supra].

As set forth above, the current state of quantum computing has already reached the threshold scale outlined in the study. Therefore, the Chinese claims could be tested sooner than later. According to Schneier, even should these claims prove unfounded, the race to break encryption using quantum computing is coming much sooner than expected. In this regard he stated: "The betting is, as in all these cases, breaking RSA won’t work. But some day that bet will be wrong". [Waters, supra].

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