My Chaos Legion Buying Strategy: Considerations About VOUCHER and Chaos legion Packs / La mia strategia di acquisto dei pacchi Chaos Legion (ENG/ITA)

ChaosLegionBuyingStrategy2.jpg
Logo image owned by @splinterlands - Edit by @libertycrypto27- Font used is Open Source


image.png La versione in italiano è subito dopo la versione in inglese - The Italian version is immediately after the English version


Today is November 29, 2021 and there are just over 9 days until the official launch of the Chaos Legion card collection.

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On December 8 it will be possible to open the packs of cards purchased during the pre-sale and the phase 2 of the Chaos Legion sale will begin.
On December 8, the airdrop of VOUCHER tokens will start again and, as during the presale, they will be the prerequisite to buy the packs of cards.

1 pack of Chaos Legion cards = 4$ + 1 VOUCHER token

During phase 2 of the Chaos Legion card pack sale, there will be 2 million packs available for purchase and the distribution of VOUCHER tokens will double compared to the presale.

The Voucher token distribution mechanism during the presale was as follows:

33333,333 tokens per day / total SPS staked * SPS staked by player

The Voucher token distribution mechanism during Phase 2 of the Chaos Legion card pack sale will be as follows:

66666,666 tokens per day / total SPS staked * SPS staked by player

I chose to sell all the VOUCHER tokens I received during the presale and from their sale I got a profit of 1439.23 SWAP.HIVE.

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Based on the current value of HIVE, with the gain from the sale of the VOUCHER tokens I could purchase 867 packs of cards during phase 3 of the sale (when the VOUCHER tokens will no longer be needed).

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In fact, in phase 3 of sale, Voucher tokens will continue to be distributed (20000 tokens per day) but they will only be used to obtain bonuses for multiple card purchases.

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I could have participated in the presale and instead of selling VOUCHER tokens I could have purchased 71 packs of Chaos Legion cards.
In this case I would have had the benefits of the presale and on December 8 I could have made the guaranteed claim of 1 level 1 Doctor Blight card.

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If I had participated in the presale each pack of cards would have cost me $52.69 today:

  • 4$: value of 1 pack of Chaos Legion cards
  • 48.98$: loss of earnings due to the choice of not selling but using VOUCHER tokens.

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The Doctor Blight card is the guaranteed prize that will be distributed on December 8 for every purchase of 50 card packs during the presale.

This means that anyone who purchased 50 packs of cards during the pre-sale paid for the guaranteed Doctor Blight card $2434.41 ($48.89 * 50 packs of cards).

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The calculations above are only for the case of buying 50 packs of cards during the presale.
Those who participated in a buying pool or bought for example 1000 packs of cards got more benefits (bonus packs + legionaire title) and therefore had lower costs but also in this case, given the current value of HIVE, those like me who chose the strategy of selling VOUCHER tokens got a lot of value from the sale of VOUCHER tokens.

Will the Doctor Blight card be sold and purchased at a price higher than $2434.41?

I could be wrong but I really think not but it is necessary to wait until December 8 to have the answer to the previous question.

For the moment I am very happy to have chosen to sell VOUCHER tokens and I am obviously very happy to see HIVE at a value above 2$.


Sales phase 2: my buying strategy


As with the presale, in phase 2 my strategy for buying Chaos Legion card packs will be highly influenced by the value of the VOUCHER tokens.

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Purchasing Chaos Legion card packs during phase 2 will not have the same benefits as the pre-sale and therefore the value of VOUCHER tokens will logically be lower and in fact already today November 29 a VOUCHER token has a lower dollar value than the first day of the pre-sale.

On the first day of the presale (October 18, 2021) the value of 1 VOUCHER token was 29.99 SWAP.HIVE=20.00$
Today 29 November 2021 the value of 1 token VOUCHER is 6.20 SWAP.HIVE=14.94$

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If the current values of HIVE tokens and VOUCHER tokens are the same on December 8, buying a pack of cards during phase 2 of the sale would cost $18.94.

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If we assume that the average cost of a VOUCHER token will be during phase 2 of sale the same as it is today: 6.2 HIVE = $14.94...

Will it be convenient to pay a pack of cards 18.94$ during phase 2 when in phase 3 it can be bought for 4$?

The answer to this question will depend solely on the value of the cards that will be distributed by airdrop to participants in phase 2 of the sale of packs of Chaos Legion cards and the value that will have VOUCHER tokens from December 8.

As of today, the cards that will be distributed after the sale of the second million packs of cards and after the sale of the third million packs of cards are not yet known, and the airdrop distribution mechanisms are not yet known.

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My personal prediction is that the value of VOUCHER tokens will decrease in the future because the benefits of their use will be less than the pre-sale.

If the value of the VOUCHER tokens will be the same as today also on December 8 I will continue with my strategy and I will sell the VOUCHER tokens that I will receive at least initially.
When I will know the characteristics of the cards distributed in the next two airdrops I will be able to make more precise calculations and predictions even if always estimated.

In conclusion I wanted to answer to who on Discord asked me if it is convenient to buy a pack of Chaos Legion cards on external markets like Hive Engine or TribalDex.

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Buying a pack of cards on the external markets does not give any benefit to the buyer, in fact it takes away some benefits because:

  • the pack of cards will not be counted in airdrops
  • the pack of cards will not be counted for the achievement of the Maverick status of Splinterlands

That's why in my opinion buying a pack of cards from Hive Engine makes sense only if the purchase price on Hive Engine is lower than the price you can buy from the Shop section of Splinterlands.

In the past I've only bought Untamed card packs and Dice card packs from Hive Engine when their purchase price was less than $2 for Untamed packs and $3 for Dice packs otherwise I would have bought them directly from the Splinterlands Shop.

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I really don't understand how you can buy a pack of cards at twice the value that in a few months will be available in the Shop section of Splinterlands.

Obviously, mine are just personal evaluations and are not financial advice.

My minimum goal to buy Chaos Legion packs is 1000 packs but if the value of Hive goes up I can raise the goal and buy more packs.

Splinterlands is my favorite blockchain based game and in addition playing games I also enjoy writing content related to the various investment strategies that Splinterlands offers and I hope you liked this post and thank you for reading and taking the time to read it :)

Are you not a Splinterlands player?


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Splinterlands is a beautiful game and it has proved to be a very good investment (at least until now) and if you regularly participate to the weekly contests organized by the @splinterlands account you will recover the registration cost (10$) in a short time.

If you decide to register, you can do it from this link:

https://splinterlands.com?ref=libertycrypto27

of course if you'd like to use my refferal link... :)


Any game that involves the purchase of cards and tokens is never a simple game but it is also an investment and should be considered as such.
I am not a financial consultant and if you decide to invest in the game of Splinterlands you do it for your own choice, after having made your personal evaluations and considered all possible risk factors.

My advice is to always invest only what you can afford to lose with a light heart.


See you on the battlefields of Splinterlands.


A selection of my previous posts on Splinterlands












Unless otherwise indicated, the images in this post are screenshots taken from the sites:

https://splinterlands.com/

https://www.splintercards.com/

https://peakmonsters.com/

Images containing calculations and formulas are my property

The font used in my images or edited by me is Open Source


HIVE ON and Splinterlands ON!


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Italian Version copia.jpg


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Logo image owned by @splinterlands - Edit by @libertycrypto27- Font used is Open Source


Oggi è il 29 novembre 2021 e mancano poco più di 9 giorni al lancio ufficiale della collezione di carte Chaos Legion.

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L'8 dicembre sarà possibile aprire i pacchi di carte acquistati durante la prevendita e inizierà la fase 2 della vendita Chaos Legion.
L'8 dicembre ripartirà anche l'airdrop dei token VOUCHER che saranno, come durante la prevendita, il requisito indispensabile per acquistare i pacchi di carte.

1 pack of Chaos Legion cards = 4$ + 1 token VOUCHER

Durante la fase 2 di vendita dei pacchi di carte Chaos Legion i pacchi disponibili all'acquisto saranno 2 milioni e la distribuzione dei token VOUCHER raddoppierà rispetto alla prevendita.

Il meccanismo di distribuzione dei token Voucher durante la prevendita era il seguente:

33333.333 tokens al giorno / totale SPS staked * SPS staked by player

Il meccanismo di distribuzione dei token Voucher durante la Fase 2 della vendita dei pacchi di carte Chaos Legion sarà il seguente:

66666.666 tokens al giorno / totale SPS staked * SPS staked by player

Ho scelto di vendere tutti i token VOUCHER che ho ricevuto durante la prevendita e dalla loro vendita ho ottenuto un guadagno di 1439.23 SWAP.HIVE.

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In base al valore attuale di HIVE, con il guadagno ottenuto dalla vendita dei token VOUCHER potrei acquistare 867 pacchi di carte durante la fase 3 di vendita (quando i token VOUCHER non saranno più indispensabili).

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Infatti nella fase 3 di vendita i token Voucher continueranno ad essere distribuiti (20000 token al giorno) ma serviranno solo per ottenere i bonus per acquisti di carte multipli.

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Avrei potuto partecipare alla prevendita e invece di vendere i token VOUCHER avrei potuto acquistare 71 pacchi di carte Chaos Legion.
In questo caso avrei avuto i benefici della prevendita e l'8 dicembre avrei potuto fare il claim garantito di 1 carta Doctor Blight di livello 1.

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Se avessi partecipato alla prevendita ogni pacco di carte mi sarebbe costato oggi 52.69$:

  • 4$: valore di 1 pacco di carte Chaos Legion
  • 48.98$: mancato guadagno dovuto alla scelta di non vendere ma utilizzare i token VOUCHER.

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La carta Doctor Blight è il premio garantito che sarà distribuito l'8 dicembre per ogni acquisto di 50 pacchi di carte durante la prevendita.

Questo vuol dire che chi ha acquistato 50 pacchi di carte durante la prevendita ha pagato la garanzia di ricevere la carte Doctor Blight 2434.41$ (48.89$ * 50 pacchi di carte).

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I calcoli sopra si riferiscono solo al caso di acquisto di 50 pacchi di carte durante la prevendita.
Chi ha partecipato ad una pool di acquisto o ha acquistato ad esempio 1000 pacchi di carte ha ottenuto benefici maggiori (pacchi bonus + titolo legionaire) e quindi ha avuto costi minori ma anche in questo caso, considerato il valore attuale di HIVE, chi come me ha scelto la strategia di vendere i token VOUCHER ha ottenuto molto valore dalla vendita dei token VOUCHER.

La carta Doctor Blight verrà venduta e acquistata ad un prezzo superiore a 2434.41$?

Potrei sbagliarmi ma io penso proprio di no ma è necessario aspettare l'8 dicembre per avere la risposta alla domanda precedente.

Per il momento sono molto contento di aver scelto di vendere i token VOUCHER e sono ovviamente molto contento di vedere HIVE ad un valore superiore ai 2$.


Fase 2 di vendita: la mia strategia di acquisto


Come per la prevendita anche nella fase 2 la mia strategia di acquisto dei pacchi di carte Chaos Legion sarà altamente influenzata dal valore dei token VOUCHER.

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Acquistare i pacchi di carte Chaos Legion durante la fase 2 non avrà gli stessi vantaggi della prevendita e quindi il valore dei token VOUCHER sarà logicamente inferiore e infatti già oggi 29 novembre un token VOUCHER ha un valore in dollari inferiore al primo giorno della prevendita.

Il primo giorno della prevendita (18 ottobre 2021) il valore di 1 token VOUCHER era di 29.99 SWAP.HIVE=20.00$
Oggi 29 novembre 2021 il valore di 1 token VOUCHER è di 6.20 SWAP.HIVE=14.94$

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Se i valori attuali dei token HIVE e dei token VOUCHER saranno gli stessi anche l'8 dicembre acquistare un pacco di carte duranrte la fase 2 di vendita costerebbe 18.94$

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Se ipotizziamo che il costo medio di un token VOUCHER sarà durante la fase 2 di vendita uguale a quello di oggi: 6.2 HIVE = 14.94$.

Converrà pagare un pacco di carte 18.94$ durante la fase 2 quando nella fase 3 potrà essere comprato a 4$?

La risposta a questa domanda dipenderà esclusivamente dal valore delle carte che verranno distribuite tramite airdrop ai partecipanti alla fase 2 di vendita dei pacchi di carte Chaos Legion e al valore che avranno i token VOUCHER a partire dall'8 dicembre.

Ad oggi non si conoscono ancora le carte che saranno distribuite dopo la vendita del secondo milione di pacchi di carte e dopo la vendita del terzo milione di pacchi di carte e non si conoscono ancora i meccanismi di distribuzione dell'airdrop.

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La mia personale previsione è che il valore dei token VOUCHER diminuirà in futuro perchè i vantaggi del loro utilizzo saranno inferiori rispetto alla prevendita.

Se il valore dei token VOUCHER sarà quello di oggi anche l'8 dicembre proseguirò con la mia strategia e venderò i token VOUCHER che riceverò almeno inizialmente.
Quando conoscerò le caratteristiche delle carte distribuite nei due successivi airdrop potrò fare calcoli e previsioni più precisi anche se sempre stimati.

In conclusione volevo rispondere a chi su Discord mi ha chiesto se è conveniente comprare un pacco di carte Chaos Legion sui mercati esterni come Hive Engine o TribalDex.

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Comprare un pacco di carte sui mercati esterni non dà nessun beneficio all'acquirente anzi toglie dei benefici perchè:

  • il pacco di carte non verrà conteggiato negli airdrop
  • il pacco di carte non viene conteggiato per il raggiungimento dello status Maverick di Splinterlands

Ecco perchè secondo me comprare un pacco di carte da Hive Engine ha senso solo se il prezzo di acquisto su Hive Engine è inferiore al valore acquistabile dalla sezione Shop di Splinterlands.

In passato ho acquistato i pacchi di carte Untamed e i pacchi di carte Dice da Hive Engine solo quando il loro valore di acquisto era inferiore a 2$ per i pacchi Untamed e 3$ per i pacchi Dice altrimenti li avrei comprati direttamente dallo Shop di Splinterlands.

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Davvero non capisco come si possa acquistare un pacco di carte ad un valore doppio rispetto al valore che fra qualche mese sarà disponibile nella sezione Shop di Splinterlands.

Ovviamente le mie sono solo personali valutazioni e non sono consigli finanziari.

Il mio obiettivo minimo di acquisto dei pacchi Chaos Legion è di 1000 pacchi ma se il valore di Hive dovesse salire potrò alzare l'asticella e comprare un numero maggiore di pacchi.

Splinterlands è il mio gioco basato su blockchain preferito e oltre a giocare mi piace anche scrivere contenuti inerenti alle varie strategie di investimento che offre Splinterlands e spero che questo post ti sia piaciuto e ti ringrazio per la lettura e per avermi dedicato il tuo tempo :)

Splinterlands = Play 2 Earn!


Non sei un giocatore di Splinterlands?


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Splinterlands è un bellissimo gioco e si è dimostrato anche un ottimo investimento (almeno fino ad ora) e se partecipi regolarmente ai contest settimanali organizzati dall'account @splinterlands recuperi il costo di iscrizione (10$) in poche settimane.

Se decidi di registrarti, puoi farlo da questo link:

https://splinterlands.com?ref=libertycrypto27

ovviamente se hai piacere ad usare il mio refferal link... :)


Ogni gioco che prevede l'acquisto di carte e di token non è mai un semplice gioco ma è anche un investimento e come tale va considerato.
Io non sono un consulente finanziario e se decidi di investire nel gioco di Splinterlands lo fai per tua scelta, dopo aver fatto le tue personali valutazioni e considerato tutti i possibili fattori di rischio.

Il mio consiglio è di investire sempre e solo quello che puoi permetterti di perdere a cuor leggero.


Una selezione dei miei precedenti post su Splinterlands











Se non diversamente indicato, le immagini presenti in questo post sono screenshots presi dai siti:

https://splinterlands.com/

https://www.splintercards.com/

https://peakmonsters.com/

Le immagini che contengono calcoli e formule sono di mia proprietà

Il font usato nelle immagini mie o da me editate è Open Source


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@tipu curate 2

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Grazie mille caro @zottone444 :)
!BEER
!LUV
!PIZZA
!LOL

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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ho sbagliato account e da lì i token non arrivano :)
Recupero subito
Ancora grazie per il supporto caro @zottone444
!LUV
!BEER
!LOL
!PIZZA

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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SI si , non ti preoccupare , ma quindi ora usi LEO finance AHAH

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Si con libertyleo27 voto i post con il tag leofinance solo che avvolte mi dimentico di fare lo switch quando rispondo ai commenti :)
!BEER

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Good analysis bro. I sold a good chunk of mine too, but got just 20 packs, i don't qualify for the bonus blight card with just 20?

!LUV dat !PIZZA

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Hi @captainquack22
With 20 packages you are not guaranteed to get Doctor Blight but you have a 2% chance of finding him in each package so you should have a 40% chance of finding him.
Obviously I hope that at least one will be found ;)
!BEER
!PIZZA

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Interesting read. Especially the part about the total cost for a guaranteed Dr Blight, I didn't think about this.

I think Dr. Blight will be pretty cheap. Don't forget that there will be more than 20k cards in circulation.
If you look at Black Dragon, it's a bit similar to Dr Blight, has only half the supply, has more power and it's only worth $145 for a lvl 1 card. Of course, the big advantage of Dr. Blight is that it's a neutral splinter.

Otherwise, I also used the same strategy than you and I'm very happy with my decision. The only difference is that I bought 6 packs with my vouchers, so I still have a small chance to find the promo card in my packs. 😃

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Hi @sleaz0id
Dr Blight is a great card but I fully agree with you and your considerations.
Like you I don't think it can be worth much even if in the early days it could have a value of $300-400 but I don't think it can exceed this amount.

The only difference is that I bought 6 packs with my vouchers, so I still have a small chance to find the promo card in my packs. 😃

It would be nice if with 6 packs of cards you could find Dr. blight. I hope so ;)

thanks a lot for your comment
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This post has been manually curated by @bhattg from Indiaunited community. Join us on our Discord Server.

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I also think VOUCHER price will go down and I will also be waiting for the phase where packs are $4 each. Using the funds from the pre-sale voucher selling and the HIVE pump, I am fully funded in credits to buy at least 500 packs so I just need VOUCHERs for the bonus packs.

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we followed the same strategy and were rewarded :)
You did well to buy the credits with the proceeds of the sale of vouchers so you have a capital to invest without having to worry about price fluctuations
!BEER
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One wonders whether the eventual price of voucher will even be worth the cost of the bonus packs!

Everyone's going to be sellling down to $4 aren't they?!?

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Hi @revise.spt
the ability to participate in airdrops should keep the price above $4.
Let's wait and see what the cards will be for the next two airdrops but I think Vouchers will continue to be overpriced and that's a good thing for me that I will continue to sell them ;)
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very good . i think better sell voucher xD

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Hi my friend, I have read your previous reviews, and honestly you have hit the mark for the moment. I am really happy for you in this regard.

I have learned a lot about economics reading you haha.

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(Edited)

$2434.41

There's no way a Doctor Blight will be worth that much.


I purchased 154 presale packs and sold the rest of my vouchers. I wanted to cover both angles. The reason for paying Voucher + $4 USD in general instead of waiting for general sale 2.0 where we can get vouchers for just $4 USD is FOMO.

There is a chance that general sale 2.0 insta sells out. There's multiple large guilds looking to come in with 100,000- 1,000,000 USD for purchases of CL packs. With the HIVE price Spike its likely everyone has adjusted their spending limits for CL upwards (not financial advice). That said, I'll be (attempting) purchasing most my packs once vouchers are only needed for bonus packs.

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Hi @rentmoney

I purchased 154 presale packs and sold the rest of my vouchers. I wanted to cover both angles.

Yours was a good strategy because when the presale started HIVE was worth 0.6$ and staying in the middle and covering the two corners was a possibility that I had evaluated too.
Let's say that whoever sold the token vouchers like me was more lucky than good because if HIVE had remained under 0.5$ it would have been profitable to participate in the presale.

That said, I'll be (attempting) purchasing most my packs once vouchers are only needed for bonus packs.
I will do just like you ;)

Thanks for your comment and for your considerations
!BEER
!PIZZA
!LUV
!PGM

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Your numbers are amazing. I hope to one day be able to have a realistic buy goal of 1000 packs. :-)

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(Edited)

I have also sold all my vouchers in the first round of the pre-sale and my analysis is pretty much the same as yours. Continue selling vouchers and stay ready for phase three. I think all the FOMO that packs sell out within minutes are exaggerated but it might be within hours. So better keep your money ready.

1UP-devider-comment.pngYou've got 1UP'ed! Thanks for using 1UP and its #oneup tag, your NFT and PlayToEarn blockchain gaming community on www.1up.zone. Join us on Discord. And here is a !PIZZA 🍕
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Hi @flauwy-1up

Continue selling vouchers and stay ready for phase three.

I'll be ready for phase 3 ;)
!BEER
!PGM
!PIZZA

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Very Good Game
!BEER
!PIZZA
!LOLZ

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Wow I had a few bad thoughts when thinking of all the VOUCHER I spent to participate in the presale. I did not buy VOUCHER to buy extra packs. But according to your a
calc I would have made 6k hive approx and that is crazy.
Especially with hive being so high now....
However I made a ton of hive selling CL packs on atomic hub and exchanging WAX for hive. Not as much but still ok. There are some very nice arbitrage possibilities by buying on tribaldex and selling on atomic hub I made 50 packs out of 44 without any great effort. As long as I can make 50-150 cents profit per pack sold on wax I will continue to do this. With the rise of hive the arb has a lower profit sometimes. I am buying packs for their future value...
One thing, it could be that you will not be able to buy packs when the open sale starts. There is a lot of players waiting for those 4$ packs. I wish for you that it works out but securing myself some packs in presale takes away my FOMO
I comment as splinternews since that is my curation account for 1up.
cheers
@solymi

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Mi piacciono un sacco questi tuoi post... io ti ho seguito per metà... ho venduto solo la metà dei Token Voucher... effettivamente, visto il pump di HIVE sarebbe stato meglio convertirli tutti in HIVE.

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(Edited)

Thank you this is a great resource post especially for newbs like myself. Will reblog :-)

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Nice strategy. Still a bit too pricey for my liking at the moment. Gonna take a while for me to reach this type of level.
All the best!

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