Time For "Plan B" With Bitcoin
Things Are Getting Interesting...
I've seen a few posts on LeoFinance over the last couple of days regarding a "notorious BTC investor" who goes by the name of PlanB. Although I only tuned in to this podcast which went into great detail about his "stock to flow model", it seems his content is held in high regard by many and a model/prediction of the price of Bitcoin has been given based around a deep dive in to comparing charts and all kinds of technical analysis that I don't fully understand.
Anyway, this values BTC between $100,000 and $280,000 by the end of 2021! That's between ~6.5x and 18.5x from today's ~$15,000.
That seems pretty nuts when you just consider that value compared to where it is now but when I've read other posts on how that model is broken down into simpler language, it may not be so far fetched. Particularly when learning about all these institutional investors seemingly coming in, along with other "new investors", swooping up 10,000s of BTC and then moving it all off exchanges in a mass exit to what many believe is long-term storage. Sounds pretty interesting to me anyway!
Doubling Up
So I decided to double my daily micro-payments on Luno today as my Stack-Sat-Strat (stacking sats strategy) is a fully automatic process now. I'm hoping that this will put me in good stead for next year if/when we reach those valuations. Even if we don't hit those heights, I'm playing the long game with BTC and if it remains lower then I'll get more BTC anyway until it does move to those eye-watering price ranges.
Either way, I'm a big fan of stress free sats accumulating and with Luno's savings account adding a variable 4% interest starting from the day after you put your BTC in there, hopefully that will add some extra sats at the end of each month! Maybe I am just finding it a little difficult to shake the "saver mindset" but with the discoveries of sites that let you hold your crypto assets there for a return or interest, it's been a revelation and plays right in to my own methodologies.
The other platform I use is Celsius and I got an email from them saying they just hit $2 billion worth of cryptoassets on their platform, considering I watched a video on their website that's only 6 months or so old saying they had $1 billion worth, that's quite a staggering growth! So I'm a bit more confident with CeFi now and will probably stick with them for the time being but keeping the majority of my holdings on the Ledger.
We'll see how this pans out but I can't stress the importance of having a spreadsheet to keep on track of my finances. Seeing where I can cessate needless outgoings has helped formulate a new auto-stack-sat-strat and it's likely my Plan B may well become my plan A 😉
How about you? What's your take on these models and predictions of BTC price? Has it changed your strategy or are you going to keep on what you're doing? Let me know in the comments below!
Take care
Nicky
Originally posted here
Now I admire the shit outta Plan B for multiple reasons--man I hope he's right.
:fingers crossed: Or whatever needs crossed.
Yeah man, I just scrolled down his twitter feed and lots of interesting charts being shared from his research, quite eye opening in a way but feet on the ground and sticking with my stress free strategy here!
Keep my ledgers crossed personally :D
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I really need to learn how to stop replying to myself
We've all seen hyped up predictions, even hearda one douchebag gonna eat his genitalia. So the predictionsc although tough to rely on, they're still exciting.
Thanks for posting this one Nicky. 👍🏿 Now stay inside unless it's essential.
Good for the engagement league though? :P
Yeah wasn't it Jon Macafee or someone like that who said he'd eat his "meat and two veg"? I don't normally follow podcasts and price predictions because no-one knows how anything will go really but this PlanB chap seems to be well versed and doesn't mention eating genitalia as far as I can see - instant gravitas.
Don't you worry mate, I'll not be leaving the house unless I absolutely have to!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I've never heard of Plan B, I'll have to check him out.
So it that a referral link to Luno, I may have to check that out too!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I only heard the name once or twice and think it was @chekohler who originally brought that video in the first paragraph to my attention - just had a quick scroll down PlanB's twitter feed (@100trillionUSD) and there's some interesting charts and discussions if you use Twitter!
Yes it is a referral link - details of what the referral entails if you wanted to use it (not financial advice - not going down that road again haha):
Referral Link for LUNO
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I'll have a look at my finances and see if I can spare £100.
If I can I'll use your link!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
You're a star, thank you! Check behind the sofa if you haven't already! :D
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
It might not be until the end of the month when I do money things.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
No worries, I'll hold off sending my people around for the time being :P
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I have never heard of this person before, but it does sound very interesting. I think a lot of people have been eyeing that 100k mark for a while now. The plan was for us to be there by now I think, but things keep getting pushed back because of... who knows why. It is hard to trust the advice of anyone when it comes to crypto, but it is nice to know that smarter people than me are analyzing all of this stuff.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Haha yeah, I've been seeing his name a lot recently and at first glance plus watching an interview, seems to be "accurate enough" but I still take all crypto price predictions with a pinch of salt. Given that the range he's given is nearly $200k, I mean, yeah, I can say that the price of BTC will be somewhere between $0 and $1,000,000 lol - I'm a genius (not financial advice)!
I am not sure what the plan was (I see what you did there, nicely played), but the amount of institutional investment going in the last few months with Paypal announcing things as well, you don't need to be too technical to see that big players are now taking things seriously. That's pretty exciting in itself! But always good to have smarter people looking at this stuff like you say, then we can make our own minds up about it!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I agree, the big names coming in should definitely be a help. Between Paypal and Google Cloud becoming a block producer for EOS I am pretty excited about the future.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Ohhhh Google are getting involved with EOS? That could be very interesting! Have you got a link to that article(s)?
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
https://block.one/news/welcome-google-cloud-to-eos-community/
What makes me so bullish is the most conservative number it’s already 5 years of salary tax free value so count me in! The tough part is do you cash in and wait for the retrace and buy in a again or HODL all the way through.
Each year I hodl I become more desensitized to the price soon I probably won’t even care even at life changing money levels
I know it sounds silly now maybe I’ll change my mind should I be on the high end sitting with a 500k plus lol
I'm basically in a forever HODL mindset and going full on Smeagle "My Precious" mode with this right now haha! I know there will be a retrace at some point but like you said, I'm also probably a bit more desensitised to the price with this daily auto stack-sat-strat then whack in to savings. Who knows how much that will be worth at the end of 2021 if any of those price models hit?!
I remember your post the other day about putting a year's worth of salary in and just thought, I might as well top up the daily buys because that could be monstrous by the end of next year.
LOL, yeah, we'll see how we feel if we're actual millionaires and can live the high life or we'll be selling our souls for beans on toast!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Arrgghh wish I could play the game like you guys if I had a separate steady income, it won't be an option, it will be a compulsory thing for me. If the price swings are high enough though I plan to sell and buy back and forth, its the only way I could increase my holdings faster
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Well there's definitely more skill involved with what you are doing and I'm crap at the chart reading/analysis of charts so I tip my hat to you for being able to play the markets! Yeah the DCA approach is definitely compulsory for me, hopefully you will be able to join team DCA in the not too distant future!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Plan B is one account that I follow for quite a while on twitter and his S2F model really makes sense and it's so on point with BTC's price evolution. That guy who created the model is a really wise dude.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Ah nice one, thanks for the additional knowledge about Mr PlanB! I've just started following but from what I've seen so far, looks like it's pretty detailed and researched so will be keeping an eye on the wise dude :)
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
His definitely worth following during this bull market, dot after dot :)
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I am only peripherally aware of this "PlanB" but I guess this was my signal to learn more... regardless, I do like the strategy of just a slow gradual buying in, which ultimately works out to a form of dollar cost averaging, if you invest a fixed amount of fiat per day/week/month etc.
I could totally see BTC heading towards $100K within 12-18 months or so.
=^..^=
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Well you were more aware of him than I was before I started seeing a few more posts on LEO the last couple of days! I've started following his Twitter now and it's never a bad thing to have a more technical news feed going on - can help come up with a balanced opinion of things with other research.
But yeah, the low stress, "slow and steady wins the race" (hopefully) is something that's more suited for me. Life is pretty fast paced at the best of times so by taking away the "thinking" element of just have this slow form of dollar-cost-averaging, I'm happy with this way. It's not for everyone of course!
Ah man, if BTC gets to that... wow, let's come back to this conversation then and see where we are!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Thanks for sharing @nickyhavey! ((: I'll go take a look at Plan B's podcast, sounds very interesting.
What I find exciting is that there is actually a quantifiable basis (based on math and technical analysis of graphs etc.) to those price predictions apart from just macro-economic philosophy and personal bias.
But...I'm not a technical person myself and may get lost whilst listening too XD
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
You're welcome man, definitely worth having a look at the podcast, even it's just to gain a different perspective but yes, can be a little technical. Seems to have a bit more foundation than a lot of the other "waffle" out there though so you might as well follow - can never have too much research when it comes to making your own decisions!
Hope all is well your side!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Wow, these are some big numbers for the BTC, though, we are talking about one year from now and lots can happen!
Yeah little sister! Big numbers, pretty unfathomable for me to be honest but a lot really can happen in a year, especially in crypto where 1 year = 1 decade haha!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I have also never heard of the guy! Thank you for sharing this! I heard similar predictions of BTC going over 100K in the next few years! Will it happen? I guess we'll see. Meantime, let's get those wallets stacked up!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
No worries mate, always good to have an extra ribbon to the knowledge bow! Theycallmedan and leofinance also follow PlanB on Twitter and they have a lot more skin in the game than me so that adds a little extra gravitas for me anyway!
Haha, yeah definitely stacking those wallets - have to say, loving your username! Sounds like you are pretty well stacked from that alone :D
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Yeah, it's always good to see things from other perspectives, especially from those who have proved themselves!
Haha, thank you! I appreciate it! Right now, my journey is only at the beginning! I know that in next years there are many more interesting things to come!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Yeah man, agree with you on all fronts there! Plenty of interesting things to come and let's hope that these bags become our income in a few years!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I hope so too! 🌞
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I actually hate dealing with money but... you know, passive income like compounding interest is hard to say no to...
Oh okay, we see you in a decade... 😂
I used to hate it but have learnt some techniques to have a better relationship with the stuff! I think we're in a better place than we were a few years ago but still work to do in this relationship haha! You're right, the compounding interest (something we see on HIVE with the motion of powering up), is one very appealing thing!
Sheeet! Can you move house? Haha! How is Celsius looking for Malaysia? A possibility?
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Not sure about Celsius (I couldn't find a list of locations in which it works), and I'm just too lazy to go through another KYC process haha. No plans on moving as well, guess I'll still be on the watching seat for this!
Haha I know how you feel on the KYC processes, jeez, they can get tiresome can't they?! Well, hopefully you won't be waiting too long, let me know when you're able to get involved with it as you can use the below referral link - details of bonuses are:
Referral link for Celsius
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Thanks for the referral! Although I think I don't really want to jump into this at this time, but I'll... take a note :)
No rush mate, it's there for when you need it and are ready!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I think I am one of the few people who care little about bitcoin. But like I have been told many times, 'never be an emotional investor'. Bitcoin will most likely moon and it will make no sense to miss out of such gains.
I plan to start buying $1 btc per from December. if I do that for the next 360days, I probably would have $360 worth of bitcoin (or more or less). So let's see how that works out for me.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Yes, that's good advice about note being an emotional investor. I have been burned many times but in a way, that's the best way of learning. One of the reasons I prefer doing what you're going to start doing from December - there's no emotion with it, you are putting in what you can afford to lose each day. I hope it works out for us! Even if it only gets to $30k, that's double from what it was at time of posting and you can withdraw your principal should you so wish, that way, it really is just stuff to play around with!
Good luck!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Glad to see another LEO fam member who sees the importance of diversification in their bags! I've been preaching about stacking the sats here! Not that you shouldn't be stacking the LEO but people unfortunately go all in too much in alts
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Yeah man! Although BTC and HIVE make up over 95% of my bags, LEO is increasing too as I know the most about these projects having been involved with them over the last 2.75 years, with a few scraps of other tokens aka "taking a punt" haha!
I'll start following you then and see if we can share some more ideas on the Stack-Sat-Strat!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
There are criticisms of the PlanB Stock to Flow model based on how the statistics are generated. I personally don't understand the technicality. It has something to do with one of the variables being invalid. So, I am aware that there is a flaw to the model.
However, the model does fit the data rather well going back to the start of BTC. Furthermore, enough investors are aware of the stock to flow model that the BTC price will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. In other words, STF shows a price target path for investors to follow. We will likely see trading follow the chart, more or less.
One other thing to keep in mind is that the scale of the chart can be deceiving, it's going up by factors of 10. So around the $100K projection, the price swings can be breathtaking. Price swings will be even more amazing after the next halving when the price is projected to be around $1 million.
Percentage wise, the swings will be minor. But, in dollar scale, it's going to be crazy.
I'm also a big fan of Celsius.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Ahhh thanks for the added info! I'm not too familiar with the ins and outs of the model, seems to be way to technical for me but I think to have a "high enough degree of accuracy" on it's model/predictions of price from the inception of BTC is a positive sign like you were pointing towards.
Yeah the good ol' "logarithmic" chart, I think there'll be a few tears along the way from many, including myself when we get to those astronomical figures! I've not seen the projection to $1 million though - where was that at? That's making me dizzy just thinking about it! 10% swings at 1 million? Yikes! Hold on to your hats!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
The $1 Million projection is after the next halving.