Precious Metals.... Still a Good Bet...?!?
I was just having a look at the Gold and Silver 20 year chart, and generally they're pretty stable with some relatively mellow spikes in there, if that's not an oxymoron, but overall increase in value, but then since mid 2025 the prices, as we all know, have gone mental...
Gold over the last year has just gone MENTAL, the last six months.....
I'm not really sure what's behind the mental increase in silver and gold over the last year: I guess it's just kind of HYPE over something stable, lack of anywhere else for safe money to go, and then maybe some quick money piling in on the action too.
The thing with price surges fueled by buzz is that fundamentals don’t matter. When the excitement fades, prices come crashing right back down.
And maybe that's what we've got here.....
Or maybe not...
Some analysts, including those at Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan, still like precious metals. They point to global tensions and shaky economies—the usual ingredients for a gold rally. They say this is the chance to buy in cheap while everyone else is panicking.
But to my mind one is still taking a risk doing so. If speculators are calling the shots, these markets could stay bumpy for a while. Maybe prices snap back, maybe it’s more chaos before things settle down.
The real takeaway? This latest crash is just another chapter in the age-old battle between actual value and pure hype. Gold and silver still play a role if you want to hedge against bad times. But too much hot money, and even “safe” assets can turn into a thrill ride.
But I am still tempted to start DCA ing once more...!
I think it's a classic mean reversion, a lot of the hype has been blown away, I think with big swings like we have seen, some volatility is likely before the steady march up over time resumes.
DCA'ing into gold long term is never a bad idea I feel, but there are certainly some times when it's best to sit on the side-lines and watch the show unfold. I wouldn't rush
This is really hard to accurately predict, because we don't know what is happening.
I figure/assume that there are three market moving sized thing happening that i have no clue about.
I believe that some people are moving to cash because war.
I believe the COMEX riggers are jumping on this and trying to push the market down.
I believe retail investors are spent.
That said, i know silver is going WAY up, because manufacturers who use silver, are going through contortions to line up future supply.
Soooo, will gold go up?
Most likely.
Will gold stay up? Not until the COMEX dies, and we have someone/some market/maybe blockchain keeping track of real sales and real movements of gold (and then off-track betting)
The thing is, there is scary future. Every scare, people run to gold.
But, there is also bitcoin. And other cryptos, that fear will move people into too.
In the farther future, i see gold reverting to the value of a pretty yellow metal.
I've always heard about the Gold/Silver ratio but finally after breaking out of the 40 year cup and handle formation, Silver and Gold are readjusting. If you had swapped Gold for Silver last March 2025 at 102, and then swapped Silver to Gold at 48 in January, you would have been able to double your Money. Just wait and see what happens next, Gold and Silver are money, Currency is Debt and each Dollar is owed to 10,000 places.
https://goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html
I heard rumours that the bank Silver shorts were all wiped out at $50, and that institutions were being instructed to Sell so that the banks could buy back the money on the dip. There are serious physical supply shortages and also rumours that Comex is being emptied of physical supply also, so perhaps at some point the international markets will Bid up the price. $200 is a target I heard being discussed on various channels. Indian silver holders may be behind the "Asian Guy AI videos" that you see on YouTube, Indian Farmers were allegedly the main beneficiaries of the price rise in 2011.
(If anyone knows any of this to be incorrect please correct me and provide additional evidence, thank you.)
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That's all fascinating - Tempting to buy some silver, the problem I've got here in the uK is the 20% VAT on Silver which doesn't apply to gold!
That silver and gold spike since mid-2025 is wild, especially gold’s last six months. You’d think 20 years of stability would mean a slow climb, but now it’s like someone flipped a switch. Maybe geopolitics or inflation fears are finally catching up. I’d watch if this keeps up or if it’s just a reactionary run.