Stocks, Bonds , Gold , Btc

Something is being prepared …?

I don’t trust this move in the equity market right now Therefore, I still see downside risk for crypto here and yesterday gave us some interesting action.

Specifically, some of the views that came out of yesterday appeared recessionary Or at least the start of that view started to emerge yesterday.

USD Was down heavy and did manage to poke through my key support level of 104 we also lost the double bottom / 200 MA so I’m expecting some further USD downside here get ready for it

GLD Backed up the move on the USD and miners metals caught a bid.

So USD down equals Risk assets up right? NOT SO FAST Why didn’t the equity market get a stronger bid yesterday? With USD down and Powell now ‘’Dovish’’ – saying they will drop to a 50 hike next meeting? We should be going all in right?

Well NO SPY had 11BN IN OUTFLOWS yesterday.

So you have to follow the money…where did that money go? It went predominantly into bonds. Things like TLT. We also had some defensive sectors catch a bid – Things like Tobacco. People flock to these ‘’necessity’’ type plays when recession fears are starting to creep in.
My current stance is USD will continue to fall, defensive stocks and bonds will continue to get a bid. So if your looking to add stock names id go with strong balance sheet, ideally deal with necessities and have strong pricing power. Outside of that… areas of metals.

I think SPX can still run up to 4200.

We also have jobs data today.It needs to be a goldilocks number for equity markets to go higher.To many job losses = recession… To strong = more Powell hammer

So what about BTC??
The fear in crypto is X2 aside from the real economy we have hackings , defaults etc so a new visit to the lows is more probable.

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