The US Iran Deal Is A Shitshow

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Just a few days ago, everyone was celebrating a "historic agreement" between the United States and Iran. A ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices plunging, and markets soaring.

And then suddenly? The talks were canceled, Iran once again declared the strait closed, and on Sunday negotiations had to start all over again.

In just a few days, the situation changed three times. And by the time you read this, it may have changed a fourth.

HOW IT ALL STARTED

Everything began on Wednesday, June 17, with a scene that felt straight out of a movie.

Donald Trump signed the final 14-point document remotely during a dinner with Macron immediately after the G7 summit. At exactly the same time, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was placing his own signature on the agreement in Tehran.

What was signed was a "memorandum of understanding". In other words, a framework agreement that included a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the basis for future nuclear negotiations.

The markets went wild. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq turned sharply green as investors saw what they considered the biggest systemic risk of 2026 begin to fade.

But the most impressive move was in oil. Prices, which had surged because of the strait's closure, fell dramatically, dropping below $79 per barrel.

It makes sense. Roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait reopened, and oil prices fell.

Trump himself, in an interview with Axios, described the agreement as Iran's "unconditional surrender." When asked what he had learned about the limits of his power, he replied: "I know there are limits, but there are no limits." We will be talking about this president for years.

AND THEN... EVERYTHING STOPPED

This is where things became even more interesting.

On Friday, everyone expected follow-up technical talks to begin in Bürgenstock, Switzerland. Vice President JD Vance was preparing to travel there.

Then suddenly, everything was canceled.

The White House blamed unresolved logistical issues. But the Financial Times revealed what many believed was the real reason. Israel launched a wave of deadly airstrikes in Lebanon.

Lebanon's Health Ministry reported 18 deaths in the country's south. Israel said four of its own soldiers had also been killed. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that he had ordered the military to strike Hezbollah "with full force" in response to what he described as a "heinous attack."

Just hours later, the two sides agreed to a ceasefire beginning at 4 p.m. local time.

Oil prices immediately resumed their decline.

Do you see the pattern? One ceasefire is signed, another collapses, and a third is negotiated. All within the same twenty-four hours.

HORMUZ CLOSES AGAIN

As if that were not enough, the weekend brought even more drama.

On Saturday, Iran warned ships to stay away from the Strait of Hormuz. In effect, it declared the strait closed once again.

Tehran set two conditions for reopening it: respect for the ceasefire in Lebanon and the issuance of waivers allowing Iranian oil exports.

American officials immediately rejected the claim.

"Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz," a CENTCOM spokesperson said. "Traffic continues, and our forces are monitoring the situation to ensure it remains that way."

Meanwhile, new Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon reportedly killed at least 16 people, including two children.

Then on Sunday, Vance arrived in Switzerland. Negotiations resumed, with Pakistan and Qatar acting as mediators.

He struck an optimistic tone, claiming that "16 million barrels of oil" had passed through Hormuz in a single day, a record level that he said exceeded even pre-war volumes.

And of course, Trump would not be Trump without issuing a warning.

He said that if a final agreement is not reached within 60 days, the United States will impose tolls on ships passing through Hormuz as payment for what he called "services rendered."

SO... IS THE WAR OVER?

I don't know.

And frankly, nobody else seems to know either.

What we have today is a temporary 60-day memorandum filled with unanswered questions.

What happens to Iran's nuclear program?

What economic concessions will be granted?

Will the ceasefire in Lebanon hold?

Nobody knows.

Analysts remain skeptical.

UBS stated clearly that this agreement is "the beginning, not the end" of the process.

Meanwhile, strategic analyst David Roche called it a "bad deal," arguing that "the Iranians will never abandon their nuclear ambitions."

For now, the only certainty is uncertainty.