Football and Gambling - Doing Things I Was Never Much Into
After my bike trip I am now back to spending more time online, so I got to open pages I have been ignoring for months. Not because I am so excited about them, much rather just because they are still there among my bookmarks. And there is some money involved... Take Polymarket for example.
A Bit of Experimenting
I started looking into it back in February, simply because it was new and talked about. I even gave it a try, with a $10 deposit. I made some bets, won some small change on obvious predictions, took some risk, and made some losses. Most famously, I put money on Orbán Viktor remaining the Hungarian Primee Minister, even though I was just as excited about him being deposed. But it just seemed like he had cemented himself way too much into power for it be realistic. Well, the rest is history, as we say, and I was clearly wrong. Never mind. I still had eight bucks left.
I never saw my first and only deposit as anything more than a one-time playing fee. That means, I never intended to get anything out of it. And since then even my initial interest has faded, realizing that it's most useful for insider gambling. After logging in today, and seeing how my portfolio that used to be counted in USDC has been converted into ... some other coin I had never heard of, my decision has been confirmed: I'm going to use up my deposit and get out of it! But not without enjoying myself a bit first.
It's the Round of 32 in the World Cup
And what occasion offers itself more ideally for making bets, than the ongoing Fifa World Cup? Not that I'm an expert on soccer, by any means. Though some national teams are clearly more likely than others to win, there are a whole bunch of wild cards, and unexpected turns. How's that Curacao even qualified while Italy didn't? Or that Cape Verde got this far? I'm not a fan of either football or of nation states, but like so many others, during the World Cup I can get into some flag waving. After all, I've got a few ones in my collection...
New Zealand, the place my parents call home, is out. Hungary, the country of my origin, never even made it. Germany, whose passport I carry, is obviously in, though I find them generally too strong to deserve my support. (But their loss against Ecuador suggests otherwise this time.) However, the country whose flag I am waving with both hands right now, is that of my chosen home, México! Their performance so far has been splendid, and I really hope they go far. As far as possible before facing the inevitable...
Where My Money Is Riding On
So I started out with some realistic bets: Canada winning against South Africa. This was also a bit influenced by the fact that my bike trip started out on Vancouver Island. I know, you may be thinking: That's not the way the way to make sports bets! and you're right. But as I explained, the idea is to have some fun while using up my Polymarket portfolio.
Next, I put a dollar on Germany against Paraguay and one the Netherlands against Morocco. Both of them very likely wins, and they may lead to these two rival teams to contend against each other. (Though I'm still not sure who I would be rooting for, if that happens.)
For the game Mexico against Ecuador I'm obviously supporting the Mexicans. Even though Ecuador is proving to be a worthy underdog, and if they were to be playing any other team, my money would be on them. Plus, I also believe Mexico is likely to win this one.
Where I'm taking obvious risks is the France - Sweden game, where I have put a dollar on Sweden, and the USA against Bosnia, where I am in full support of the underdog. The first one is literally a gamble, while in the second one I simply believe the US deserves to lose against a less formidable power. It would have been nice to see a US - Iran match, though that was clearly too much to ask for.
That leaves me with two dollars to bet. Am I going to put one on Japan against Brazil? A probable loss, but having spent a year there I have more to do with it than Brazil. And how about Norway against Cote D'Ivoire? Again the underdog, or the one that could get me a win for a next bet? I know, this is how gambling can get into your head, hehehe... Or I could simply sit these out, seeing how things develop over the next few days.