IPL 2024 MI vs RR Preview - Will the real Mumbai please stand-up?

Key match stats

Pitch Stats – Wankhede Stadium IPL records

Pitch stats from the 10 most recent IPL matches played at the Wankhede Stadium

Team form MI vs RR
MI: LL
RR: WW

Recent meetings: IPL 2023 - MI won by 6 wickets

Weather

General Forecast: Dry and Clear
Chance of dew: Moderate

Preview MI vs RR

Mumbai fans will be hoping that their poor start to the season is reminiscent of so many of their previous campaigns in the IPL that ultimately end up in victory.

However, losing 3 games in a row in what is now a 10 team format would leave them with a mountain to climb in order to make the playoffs let alone actually win IPL 2024.

They'll be hoping that home advantage will be a major factor, as it appears to be for all sides so far this season and certainly their record here at the Wankhede last season was very strong with 5 out of 7 matches ending in victory.

As the graphic above shows, Mumbai were particularly good on the chase here in 2023 as Rajasthan themselves found out when they lost the equivalent match last season, despite posting a score of 212. MI weren't a million miles off chasing SRH's monster score last week but just faded in the final quarter of the innings but the warning signs are clear, this Mumbai side will have a go at any score, no matter how big.

What that 2nd innings against Sunrisers did provide this MI side was clarity of thought. So far this season, they've tried to be innovative with their batting line-up and decisions in the field and it's generally back fired. When you're chasing 270+ there's not any alternative other than to just to pin your ears back and have a swing!

Meanwhile Rajasthan made it 2 wins from 2 by defending their total against the Capitals. So far their lack of a genuine all-rounder hasn't cost them courtesy of some strong performances from Samson and Parag but as the stats for this pitch show (and RR know from their defeat here last year) this is a wicket that you're likely to need to score 200+ on in order to win. The Royals have only managed to pass the 200 mark once since they last played at the Wankhede and even that match ended in defeat for them.

In fact, chasing is not something that the Royals have ever been particuarly great at. They've won just 6 games batting 2nd since the start of the 2021 season and only once in their IPL history have they successfully chased a score in excess of 200 to win and that came early on in the very first season of the IPL back in 2008!

With ball in hand Rajasthan have thus far had the luxury of bowling 4 specialist quicks and 2 specialist spinners. Boult and Burger have helped the Royals take 5 powerplay wickets in their opening 2 matches while at the back end, Avesh and Sandeep have restricted scoring at the death to 9.6 an over which in the context of some the massive scoring we've seen to date in IPL 2024 is some achievement. Mumbai will be keen to break the Royals ability to bat first and have play an extra bowler.

MI vs RR head to head

RR bowling vs MI batting

Rajasthan's bowlers do have some excellent head to head records against the Mumbai batsmen.

Rohit Sharma has been dismissed 5 times by Sandeep Sharma in the IPL and averages just 7.6 against him! The way that RR now use Sandeep means that it's less likely we'll see that particular match-up until later in the innings and Rohit may also need to navigate overs from Ravi Ashwin who he scores at a strike rate of just 89.7 against despite having faced over 100 deliveries from him in the IPL.

Rohit and Ishan combined T20 head to head vs Boult

The most immediate concern for both MI openers will be Trent Boult who has dismissed Rohit 4 times in T20 cricket and Ishan a further 3. The Kiwi had some injuries problems throughout last season and didn't always look at his best but so far in IPL 2024 he appears sharp and as always is a threat with the new ball.

Chahal T20 record at the Wankhede Stadium

The graphic above indicates that during the last 10 IPL games played at the Wankhede, spin has become a more significant factor here. Historically, MI have never packed their squad with a large number of slower bowlers, instead relying on the extra pace and movement that the pitch here can offer their quicks. However, if you can get through those initial overs where the new ball might do a bit, then pace on the ball is generally disappearing over the boundary.

Tilka Varma T20 head to head vs Chahal

In that regard, Yuzvendra Chahal has an excellent record here at the Wankhede and could be a major factor once again at attempting to limit this MI middle order. He has a good record against much of the Mumbai batting line-up making the wicket of Tilak Varma who averages 50+ vs wrist-spin in T20 cricket particularly important in this game.

MI bowling vs RR batting

The one aspect of Rajasthan's game that hasn't clicked so far has been their opening combination which on paper is one of the strongest in the league. However, Jaiswal hit a magnificent 124 here last season while Buttler knows the conditions at the Wankhede very well following a spell with MI earlier in his IPL career.

Buttler and Jaiswal combined T20 head to head vs Bumrah

The big question for MI continues to be when do they unleash Bumrah? Most watchers of the IPL including myself will have come to the conclusion that in Mumbai's first 2 matches, their star bowler has been held back for too long, allowing the opposition to get away in the powerplay before he has to try and reel them back in. Rajasthan's long tail means that if you can get them 2 down in the powerplay then you're in a really strong position to win the game and that is what MI should be thinking when deciding on when to play their trump card this time around.

MI spinners in IPL 2024 to date

The Bumrah conundrum isn't helped by the fact that MI's spinners have taken some serious punishment in their first 2 games. Everybody got smashed around in Hyderabad but the fact that Chawla and Mulani only bowled 4 overs between them suggests there's not a huge amount of confidence in their ability to put the breaks on.

You can bet that Rajasthan will be looking to target the perceived weak links in this MI attack and their effectiveness of doing just that may have a significant impact on the outcome of this game.

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All stats used in this blog are from my own databases which are freely accessible below
IPL player head to head records
IPL player records by stadium
IPL stadium records.
Images are my own with the exception of player profiles and highlights within GIFs which are not intended to infringe copyright- read full disclaimer. Background images are used under a creative commons license or otherwise royalty free.