Hive: How Quickly Things Can Change

Did everyone see the jump in the price of HIVE? Of course you did. It was the topic, it seems, in one out of three posts recently. A massive run in price was not about to be overlooked by the community.

Whether it was simply a pump followed by a massive dump remains to be seem. We will see how the pricing action unfolds over the next week or so.

What we do know is things can change very quickly. When something starts going, it can run. Manias happen in different ways, with price being just one of the forms. We could also see something similar in terms of users.

In the digital world, when dealing with a potential base of more than 4.5 billion people, success can come very quickly. Something simply going "viral" can turn a few users unto tens of thousands overnight. We saw this happen repeatedly over the last 25 years.

It is the advantage of not being mired in a particular geographic area. When the entire global, online community is a potential user, this can take off.


Source

These charts are well known by now to many. It is the classical exponential versus linear growth chart. As we can see the numbers from the red line to the green get very different once the "elbow" of the green hits.

Another way of phrasing this is the Network Effect. When we only have a couple people involved growth, in raw numbers, can be slow. However, as the more people (nodes) are involved, the word of mouth means the numbers can get big rather quickly.

It is the situation where if 10 people each tell a person, 10 more people know about it. Yet the numbers chart much different if 10,000 people each tell another individual. In the later, 10,000 more people are aware of what is taking place.

Cryptocurrency is now approaching the point where the numbers are big enough to make a significant difference. Obviously, for the most part, telling people will not be effective since a lot have already heard about it. Crypto's growth is going to come from the involvement in it. In other words, people actually getting involved to the point whereby they have some crypto in their wallets.

Here is where Hive enters the picture in my opinion.

Since there are a lot more people who are aware of cryptocurrency today as compared to a few years back, we will be able to leverage that for much greater numbers. However, there is still one problem: with rare exceptions, the common way to acquire cryptocurrency is to buy it. One needs to take existing money in their account and swap it for crypto.

This is a challenge when you consider that half the United States, the richest country in the world, cannot come up with $500 to meet an emergency expense. It means we are dealing with people who do not have a lot of excess capital.

Again, this is right up Hive's alley. As the interest in crypto grows, people are going to learn they are better served by being involved. Of course, individuals are left looking in from the outside if they have no money to invest. This means another alternative has to be presented.

Presently, we are seeing a few projects that are working on offering abilities that people are familiar with. When utilized, the applications will enable people to take action that always have while providing the potential to be rewarded for what they do. This will start the process of sending crypto into another wave of people's wallets.

It is also the process that will allow the trajectory to follow the green line on the exponential chart.

The question is would everyone like Hive's path to follow the green line? The answer is obvious.

Now, look at the chart closer. What most miss is how the green line actually unfolds. Notice the first 4 iterations. During that time, the line is flat, hardly moving. The red line takes off immediately while the blue line starts to move during the second time period. Yet the green one just struggles along, not doing much of anything.

Does this sound familiar? Certainly there are a lot of other blockchain projects that got a great deal more attention than Hive as well as the financial rewards from the markets on that. All the while, Hive is overlooked, thought to be dead by many.

Nevertheless, to achieve the end result, the early stages have to be endured. That is what people miss. They want exponential growth cycles yet do not want to go through what it takes to set that off. Ultimately, it is accessing pent up demand that sets things on a parabolic trajectory. To tap into that, one needs the proper applications. This is what is being developed.

Another thing to keep in mind is that period 7 looks like it was remarkably different from the first couple iterations. The growth rate going from 1 to 7 was incredible. Yet, when viewed through the lens of what followed, we can see how the move was minor in comparison.

Does this sound like the move from $.10 to $.40. A huge move certainly but, perhaps, minor in comparison to ultimately what takes place.

We are in the digital world where things can change very quickly. The move from 100K to 1 million can take place much faster than the corresponding one from 10K to 100K. This is the power of the Network Effect.

Over the years, it happened hundreds of times. My view is that we end up seeing similar results on Hive once we get a few applications that touch the mainstream consciousness going.

At that point, the moves we are presently discussing will see minimal.

Just follow the exponential growth chart to see how things are apt to go.


If you found this article informative, please give an upvote and rehive.

gif by @doze

screen_vision2025_1.png

logo by @st8z

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta



0
0
0.000
47 comments
avatar

Just as you are analyzing the price of hive in ways for possible future growth, does it also affect the price of HBD, or is hive meant to pump while HBD struggles with $1.4?

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

The price of HBD actually preceded the run up in the price of Hive. We saw that on Steem too.

It seems the Koreans like to pump up that token for some reason.

HBD is still a tough animal to figure out. Doesn't really hold true to what it was designed for.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Just as we are all hoping for a continual increase in hive, I am hoping for a pump in HBD so I could acquire more hive

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

If you are holding HBD, that is a good approach. Anything to turn into more Hive will help.

We are going to see a huge run in the near future.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

I've always been a bit confused about how to handle my HBD, in the past I have converted it and the message says that it will result in "approximately $1" worth of Hive by doing so. So would it be a better idea to hit an exchange and get more Hive that way, or am I misunderstanding how the entire system works?

0
0
0.000
avatar

Converting now will give you less amount of hive, why not hold and when there is a good pump of HBD you convert to hive

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

pixresteemer_incognito_angel_mini.png
Bang, I did it again... I just rehived your post!
Week 44 of my contest just started...you can now check the winners of the previous week!
!BEER
7

0
0
0.000
avatar

My view is that we end up seeing similar results on Hive once we get a few applications that touch the mainstream consciousness going.

I think, if we just get the wallstreet guys, then it will pump like anything. Hope the new initiative that you published will be noticed by them, I tagged them as well.

0
0
0.000
avatar

It will just take one breakthrough. There are a lot of things happening so we will see what unfolds.

In the meantime, just keep hitting things up wherever you can. Comments, posts, upvotes, social media, whatever you can do.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar
(Edited)

Median income purchasing power parity per country in 2013:

image.png

That list is ordered according to Gross per-capita income in int$ (PPP) or dollars converted into units that have equal purchasing power locally.

I'm a bit surprised to see that four out of the five Nordic countries are in the top 10 and above the US. The fact that the US has a more top heavy income distribution is apparent from this statistic.

What really surprises me is that Germany is over 6% below Finland. Almost everything is cheaper in Germany. But I guess there are more people with lower levels of income in Germany. They have what are called mini-jobs.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_income

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Very interesting. I would be curious as to what the stats look like today.

The EU is in rough shape and a lot of the capital moved around. How did that affect things? I would believe the southern half of the Eurozone got poorer but I could be wrong about that. Germany probably held strong, at least up until COVID.

It is eye opening to look at the stats which go counter to some of our beliefs. People automaticall presume the income in the US exceeds all else. It is not the case.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

The US is higher when the averages are compared. There is a greater relative number of high net worth, high income people in the US. But the income floor is also higher in northern Europe than in the US. Homelessness exists but is very rare in northernmost Europe.

The EU countries are very diverse, much more so than different states in the US.

Here's a list of EU member states in Europe (not just EU) by GDP PPP per capita in 2020 (IMF Dec 2020 est.):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_state_of_the_European_Union

If we ignore Luxembourg and Ireland whose figures can be considered somewhat misleading (particularly Luxembourg as it is a mini-state), then the range is from 57,781 USD (Denmark) to 23,741 USD (Bulgaria).

Finland had an unemployement rate of 7.7% in the third quarter of 2020, which was 1.6 percentage points higher than in the previous year.

http://www.stat.fi/til/tyti/2020/09/tyti_2020_09_2020-10-20_tie_001_en.html#:~:text=The%20average%20number%20of%20unemployed,the%20respective%20period%20of%202019.

When unemployed, you get an average of about 60% worth of your previous salary in unemployment benefits for the first 400 days. As a response to the Covid-19 situation, this was extended to small business owners. There is no serious crisis where a cascade of mortgage foreclosures or evictions are be expected. There is a moratorium on bankruptcy procedures initiated by debtors that is about to end, though. That affects small businesses primarily.

The situation and conditions in the rest of Northern Europe is similar.

The problems in the south are more acute. The same disease is affecting the whole continent as the entire developed world. Zombie corporations are being propped up with QE money. There is general mismatch between skills in demand on the labor market and those offered on the dole. The latter is going nowhere thanks to technological change that is showing no let-up.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

The US has rent and mortgage moritoriums in place also. We will see how long they last.

A lot of the stimulus coming out of Congress is helping many people to replace a large percentage of their income. This is true of the lower economic class that was affected.

However, the long term perspective does not look that rosy. You are right, technology is not going to let up at all. We know it will keep pushing ahead and, now, corporations have incentive to replace employees.

It will be interesting to see how some of the issues are resolved.

I do have a neighbor who is from Italy...he said that where he is from, more than 20% of the local economy is directly related to tourism. He says the economy is tattered due to the lockdowns.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

@taskmaster4450 i think the team behind hive need to check out this your post,you have shared some awesome tips that will really help to make the hive grow bigger.... You are doing a great job sir...

0
0
0.000
avatar

There is no team behind Hive.

That is what makes Hive different.

What you wrote there falls to all of us. So we are all challenged to do our poart.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Blessed are the ones who have endured the early stages. Based on exponential growth I do believe that this year the bull market will be way bigger than the previous one. The networking effect will take prices to unimaginable levels.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

That could be true although financial markets are just one indicator. To me, the user network effect is much more important. We get a breakthrough there and we will see things changing greatly.

Eventually the price will follow if all else is in place.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Awesome analysis on hive's price action. I think we're due for growth in prices since development all round has been going on for more than 8 months. Irrespective this seems like an organic pump to me. Since we don't have massive Scheme to push hive

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

A lot of it could have been traders taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.

That is fine since it put Hive on people's radar. That said, price action/money players are not what is going to make hive. It is users who set off the network effect. This is where I think we are getting very close to kicking off. Projectblank will help as well as the WallStreetbets initiative.

If we can get a couple of breakthroughs, things will change very quickly.

I would expect the price to follow suit.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Project Blanket is an awesome prospect I cant begin to imagine the possibilities involved.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

We are all excited for it. Sadly it is still two weeks or so out.

Going to be a long two weeks LOL.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Not that sad, I believe people are trying to accumulate Leo and stack more. The opportunity to do that is that a possibility. Thanks for constantly updating. I look to your blogs for all these updates.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Sadly from the point of view I want to start using the application today.

Yes I think people are trying to add to their holdings so they benefit from the airdrop to a greater degree. We will see when the snapshot takes place.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Of course in the end I read a lot about hive yesterday I would almost dare to say that it was 3 1/2 post yesterday this place was all hive jaaaaaaaaaaaa but that's good that helps a lot to be informed, if I have seen these graphs that seem that linear growth is a lot faster than the exponential but it seems in the end a race between the hare and the tortoise
Yes word of mouth works very well but in my case I have made the best effort and in fact I have paid some several hives to blocktrades buying accounts for friends who are already there like 6 that are lying there because people want short-term results They do not want to make an effort, nothing less yesterday I created the last one with a lot of risk thinking wow I am spending 6 hive today that may perhaps US $ 60.00 or more in the future but hey it does not hurt to give back a little to the platform that has helped us so much grow and learn, so it remains as a sunk cost hopefully optional works.
We hope to be at point 7 soon, of course if we go there, who did not regret yesterday not having bought hive at 0.10 and we received 0.4 bagging in a single pull that was incredible but we are going well we are well we are already in the adjustment stage of price but we are doing very well more than well.

By the way yesterday I could not answer, if the technology is going well and the Nigerians cannot stop it, they are still here, they would have to close the internet as you say to stop it and totally here what one does is a blog nothing more and maybe money will have to by means of, maybe that the authorities still don't understand why they get involved in going to the money directly as the central bank of nigeria will soon realize the mistake.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

It does appear to be human nature that people what the results without any effort. At the same time, especially in this era, short term focus is the norm. Few are willing to step back and see things from a broader perspective.

They want the kick hits. That is not the case here. It takes time and effort to build a following. It is the same as in any business.

Why do people believe they are entitled to instant results on Hive?

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

This is a really great perspective to have on this. I was a little sad to see the price drop back down to the low $.30 level, but I know it is mostly a psychological thing. It will most certainly go back up. Looking at it through this lens makes that small drop not seem nearly as significant.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

It is still higher than it was a month ago. If the price keeps doubling every month, by Summer people will be very happy. LOL

In the end, this move means nothing. If it makes people happy, fine. However, there are much bigger things ahead in my opinion that I think this will be dwarfed not too long down the road.

We just need to get some things released and then go hard after new users. It can be done and will be starting with projectblank.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

I think price movement ticks boxes highlighting we are in the right place which we all knew already. This year I am hoping for a lot more of this more regularly especially with project blank.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

I think as we add more apps, the ability to attract users increases at an exponential pace. This will ultimately lead to more action in the token.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar
(Edited)

get the point, so true. I think the green line is super-exponential and hence it is not only parabolic but hyperbolic. Parabolas grow fast, but never reach infinity (mathematically - at least not in finite time but with t going to infinity as well) hyperbolas or super-exponential functions literally explode and go to infinity in finite time. This is why price bubbles are finite-time-singularities like a black-hole and have to correct, otherwise they would go infinite because the time-period for a price doubling is cutted in half each doubling (like Bitcoin in 2017)

0
0
0.000
avatar

pump and dump with hive ? - this is heresy. You should be sent to sunny boy's blockchain to atone for your sins :P

0
0
0.000
avatar

I absolutely agree. This is the right time for Hive, the world is fighting centralization , fighting for free speech , fighting to spread the truth , fighting to not get censored + amount of people who know about crypto like never before . .
Hive is already a solution to so many problems , others who aren't on Hive have to just find their way.

0
0
0.000
avatar

We need to keep telling that story.

It will be great to put a "blank" out each day telling exactly what you stated here. It will be great to get that on twitter and other social media.

We will get the message out. There is many ways to start the promotion once projectblank is released.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Agreed, with hive posh community rewarding the marketing of Hive , it all become very easy to encourage our own Hive users to get out there and promote it ( although it should happen automatically without expecting monetary incentive )

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

We all already have a monetary incentive to do it. Holding Hive along with all the other tokens, the network effect is benefits all of us.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

As long as HBDs stay above $1, there should be some support for HIVE.

The only bad thing about now vs then when looking at HIVE is that back when STEEM went on a move like this, it pulled new users in. Due to all the competition for users out there now, a move like we just saw in HIVE doesn't necessarily guarantee many new users... We are going need a truly massive move to really pull people away from other projects in today's world. That being said, higher prices do always help!

0
0
0.000
avatar

I don't expect to sell HIVE anytime soon, nor in 1 year or 2. Only if it gets to $5 maybe it makes sense for me, but until then I am building up a retirement plan based on HIVE and other secondary layer tokens like LEO and CTP. I think these will outperform in the future and there are a lot of good things awaiting us in this ecosystem.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Everything changes in the blink of an eye and that always brings two sides of the same coin. However, it is undeniable not to be happy with how things are stabilizing.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

Price is irrelevant, what matters though is that we kept hustling despite all the shit we've been through. 2021 will be our year.

Building a sustainable business on top of decentralized and immutable infrastructure is priceless. The hype is real!

Oh, can't wait for @leofinance to release projectblank - fun times m8!!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar

I haven't seen it reached $0.40 but it was pretty high recently above 0.3$. That's still pretty impressive.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

0
0
0.000
avatar
(Edited)

I am increasing my holdings of HBD and HIVE.
100 Hive Dollars are about 169 Canadian,
but 500 HIVE is only 187...

0
0
0.000