Fed Raises Interest Rates: My Forecast For Crypto
To nobody's surprise, the Fed raised interest rates. This is not going to end well, I feel certain of that.
In this video I layout the timeline that I expect to see over the next 6 months. We are starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel. The risk-on trade will come around again and I think that is where crypto lives.
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I think at this point it's pretty much baked into the price, lol. I mean who would have thunk it right? LOL. I am about sick of this whole clown show. I swear it's not real, lol.
Well it is real when people start losing their jobs.
The Fed is way off base right now and that is becoming more evident by the day.
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Oh believe me I know, I just wish we could just wake up from the nightmare, lol. Like I am about to go work for a grocery store at this point, lol, at least they are still hiring, lol.
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everything in life is a risk but yes you are right that is the perfect niche to look for the perfect opportunity and get the maximum possible benefit
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You dont really believe in that do you?
The Fed doesnt create USD. The money printer go BRR is online meme bullshit.
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Are you in MMT (Modern Money Theory)?
Not at all. MMT is an effort to further central money creation. It is as bad an idea as CBDCs.
As for the M2, there was a reason that it became a useless metric. To start, money is a lot more than just USD that is out there. Plus, that only measures USD in the domestic banking system, not globally. When we look at the NIIP, we see that, since 2017, there was $10 trillion in net inflows into the US as compared to the outflows.
Much of that ends up in the banking system.
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BEERKING.The rate hike was expected and I think the risk-on trade will come back eventually. It does look like it got a boost from the hike though.
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It gets a boost since the hike will help to make things even more apparent of how bad it is.
This will bring us closer to the reversal.
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Still about risks
Good points. Agree with most of it and have been coming to similar projections via different data/analysis, which is good. Confluence is imperative. Get the same story from different places and you secure the odds...
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Summary:
In this video, Task discusses the recent Fed interest rate hike and its implications for the cryptocurrency market. He mentions that the Fed raised the Fed funds rate by 75 basis points and delves into the significance of this decision. Task criticizes the Fed for being out of touch with current economic realities and expresses skepticism about their economic models. He predicts that the next 90 days might bring bad news economically and speculates on potential future actions by the Fed, suggesting a possible reversal by the end of the year. Task recommends keeping an eye on various market indicators like the 10-year bond, gold, and the dollar to gauge market movements. He also touches on the impact of the rate hike on different assets like oil and shares his thoughts on how cryptocurrency fits within the risk-on, risk-off trading dynamics.
Detailed Analysis:
Taskmaster starts the video by addressing the recent Fed decision to raise the Fed funds rate by 75 basis points. He points out that while the Fed funds market is relatively small, the repo market is much larger, and market reactions indicate concerns about the sustainability of current economic conditions. He criticizes the Fed for relying on outdated economic models like the Phillips curve, which he believes do not accurately reflect the current economic situation.
Task goes on to share his theory on the implications of the rate hike, mentioning that the bond market has been resistant to rising interest rates and predicts a challenging economic period ahead. He anticipates a potential reversal in the Fed's stance by the end of the year and suggests watching market indicators like the 10-year bond yield, gold prices, and the strength of the dollar to assess market movements.
In terms of cryptocurrency, Task expresses a cautious stance, linking its performance to the overall risk-on, risk-off sentiment in the markets. He disagrees with the idea that crypto is forward-looking, stating that it still falls within the broader market dynamics. Task highlights Bitcoin as a key player in the crypto market, mentioning its influence on the performance of other cryptocurrencies. He also touches on potential market manipulation and the industry's maturity level as factors influencing cryptocurrency price movements.
Task concludes by discussing the challenging economic outlook, citing negative news from retailers like Walmart and suggesting that the crypto market may see some positive developments in the future. He emphasizes the need for patience and monitoring various market indicators to navigate the current economic landscape effectively.
Notice: This is an AI-generated summary based on a transcript of the video. The summarization of the videos in this channel was requested/approved by the channel owner.