Canadian Retail Sales In: More Headwinds?

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We are seeing this in a lot of places. The Canadian retail sales went negative for the second month in a row.

In this video I discuss how this is really worse than it looks since inflation is propping the numbers up a bit.


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I don't believe it is a double dip and we are definitely not out of the recession yet. After all the pandemic and lockdowns did terrible damage on our economy and even the supply chain has been affected.

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The lockdowns have managed to keep the velocity of currency down, despite the amount that's been printed. Looks like we are heading for stagflation, as Peter Schiff has often predicted.

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Looks like we are heading for stagflation, as Peter Schiff has often predicted.

Not a chance. You are going to see a major pullback in the inflation impact.

Schiff out to look at the bond market and see what that is saying. It is not screaming inflation. Of course, that would bust up his narrative, one he kept pounding for more than a decade.

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I think they will think of a way to come around

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I don't know how people are coping in foriegn countries but here in Africa another lockdown is not what we wish for because the economy is struggling already and Corona make it even extremely poor.

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Summary:
Task discusses the Canadian retail sales numbers, highlighting the consecutive decrease over the past two months. He mentions the significance of the upcoming holiday season in boosting retail sales. Task explains the concept of nominal sales versus real sales, emphasizing how inflation impacts the numbers. Furthermore, he delves into how inflation affects consumer behavior, particularly in discretionary spending. He concludes by noting his observations on various economic indicators and the potential implications.

Detailed Article:
In this video, Task delves into the recent Canadian retail sales numbers and their implications. He notes a concerning trend of consecutive monthly decreases, with sales down by 1.9% following a previous 1.9% decline. This cumulative 3.8% drop over two months raises red flags about potential economic headwinds. Task underscores the significance of the holiday season for retail, as it historically accounts for a substantial portion of sales and profitability.

Task introduces the distinction between nominal and real sales figures, emphasizing the impact of inflation. He explains how inflation adjustment is crucial in understanding the true value of sales and how it can mask real decreases in purchasing power. Task goes on to discuss how higher inflation rates can dampen consumer spending, particularly in discretionary areas. He provides examples of how individuals may adjust their spending habits in response to inflation, such as cutting back on dining out or switching to more cost-effective options.

Moreover, Task touches upon the prioritization of spending during inflationary periods, highlighting that core necessities like housing and food take precedence over discretionary items. He elucidates how inflation affects consumer behavior and shapes purchasing decisions, leading to shifts in expenditure patterns. Task also mentions the broader implications of inflation on the economy, especially in the context of retail sales performance.

Additionally, Task reflects on the broader macroeconomic landscape, noting a trend of mixed or negative indicators. He points out the importance of monitoring various economic metrics for signs of slowing growth or disinflation, especially following a recession. Task alludes to the potential of a 'double-dip recession,' a scenario where economic recovery falters and enters a downturn again. Overall, he concludes by encouraging viewers to stay informed and attentive to evolving economic trends.

In conclusion, Task's analysis provides valuable insights into the complexities of retail sales, inflation's impact on consumer behavior, and the broader economic landscape. By dissecting the Canadian retail sales data and contextualizing it within larger economic trends, Task offers viewers a nuanced perspective on the current state of the economy and potential challenges ahead.

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