The Macro Moment: Another High CPI Print
The CPI came out with an 8.7% print. This is still at the 40 year highs which has causing major havoc with household budgets.
In this video I discuss how the persistance of this only makes the landing that much harder. There is no way we get a "soft" landing. The economy has little choice but to crash as wages are lagging, causing different sectors of the economy to tank.
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We are all screwed... Yeah that was not a good report this morning...
Yeah because inflation that gets really elevated turns to deflation and ends up wiping out the economy.
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well if that is a real problem for any economy worldwide. When salaries, let's say, fall behind with respect to inflation, they tend to collapse and even more so when the government, let's say, does not apply measures that can solve it, undoubtedly we are heading towards the precipice.
Governments dont solve it. They tend to only make matters worse.
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Waiting for good days in.economy. Government sometimes act unwise and I don't support those decisions of government that can't bring something positive in our economy, inflation is now became a Worldwide problem and many people believe that corona pandemic and Russia Ukraine war was scam and affect the economy.
I don't think we will get a soft landing either and the companies already could not pass the full cost of the increases over to the customer. So I do think it will be causing more trouble for the next few years for people. It's too bad the government isn't interested in solving any of these issues.
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Summary:
In this video, Task discusses the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for the United States, highlighting the significant increase in energy prices contributing to the 8.7% inflation rate. He warns viewers about the impact of rising prices on household budgets, particularly on discretionary spending. Task emphasizes the difference between inflation caused by monetary policy and supply chain issues, using examples like beef and automobile price hikes due to these factors. He also mentions concerns about job market indicators such as an increase in first-time jobless claims, a drop in JOLTS, and companies implementing hiring freezes. Task expresses skepticism about the Federal Reserve's handling of the situation and predicts a challenging economic downturn ahead.
Detailed Analysis:
Task delves into the recent CPI numbers, noting the 8.7% inflation rate, attributing it to the surge in energy prices. He predicts that this elevated inflation is unsustainable due to the disparity between wages and CPI, impacting affordability issues significantly. Task highlights how rising costs in one area like energy directly affect discretionary spending in other aspects of household budgets, leading to a reduction in consumer purchasing power.
Moreover, Task draws a distinction between inflation driven by monetary policy and that stemming from supply chain disruptions. He cites examples such as the increase in beef prices due to livestock culling and the shortage of chips affecting automobile production. By emphasizing the impact of supply chain issues on pricing, Task underscores the complexities of the current economic challenges beyond just monetary policy.
Task then turns to the job market, expressing concern about indicators such as a rise in first-time jobless claims and a notable drop in JOLTS numbers. He mentions the adverse effects of companies announcing hiring freezes, potentially signaling a looming downturn in job opportunities. Task critiques the Federal Reserve's focus solely on inflation and unemployment, pointing out the broader implications of deteriorating job market conditions that may have been overlooked.
In his concluding remarks, Task offers a grim outlook on the economy, dismissing the possibility of a soft landing and comparing the current situation to a free fall without a parachute, leading to a hard landing. He doubts the Fed's ability to navigate the economic challenges effectively, given the unfavorable circumstances, and suggests that a bumpy economic road lies ahead.