JOLTS: Another Metric Starting To Crack
Remember when people pointed to the JOLTS report as an indication of the labor market being so strong. We now have the June (not July) numbers out and they were down again.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/job-offers
In this video I discuss how we can clearly see the trend. For those who buy these numbers as absolutes (I dont) then it is a bad sign. We saw a10% decline since the peak in March with half of that coming in June alone.
Anyone think the numbers for July will show a larger decline?
▶️ 3Speak
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in june Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report is not so good.
Just part of a downward trend that we saw emerging over the last few months.
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BEERKING.the labor market is very unstable and we cannot be guided by any indicator it is very changeable there are many factors that can alter it
I think there is a high chance for the JOLTS to print a lower number in July. At least, we have seen quite a few companies reporting that they are cutting down their labor force.
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Summary:
The video discusses the Joltz Report, a metric used to gauge the number of job openings in the U.S. economy. The speaker criticizes the report, highlighting how it overcounts job openings, leading to inflated numbers. He mentions a significant decline in job openings from March to June, speculating that the trend is worsening. The speaker correlates this decrease with other economic indicators like declining GDP, manufacturing orders, and retail inventory issues. He also dismisses claims that job openings increased due to extended unemployment benefits, pointing to the delayed impact on the Joltz Report. In conclusion, he advises viewers to focus on trends rather than absolute numbers to understand the true state of the job market.
Detailed Article:
The speaker, in this video, delves into the intricacies of the Joltz Report, arguing against its reliability in reflecting the true state of the job market. He asserts that the Joltz Report exaggerates job openings by counting each interaction with potential candidates as a separate opening, leading to inflated numbers. By criticizing the methodology of the report, the speaker questions the accuracy of the data it presents.
Analyzing the numbers, the speaker highlights a concerning trend of decreasing job openings from the peak in March to the figures reported for June. With a significant decline of 1.2 million job openings in just four months, amounting to a 10% decrease, the speaker predicts a further drop in July's numbers. He correlates this decline with various economic indicators such as a shrinking GDP, diminishing manufacturing orders, and retail inventory challenges.
Moreover, the speaker challenges the notion that job openings surged due to extended unemployment benefits, emphasizing the delayed impact on the Joltz Report, which peaked months after the benefits were discontinued. This assertion undermines the argument that the high number of job openings was a result of individuals no longer receiving unemployment benefits and returning to work.
By emphasizing the importance of observing trends rather than fixating on absolute numbers, the speaker warns against relying solely on the Joltz Report for insights into the job market. He cautions viewers to scrutinize the data presented by mainstream media and financial experts, encouraging them to seek a deeper understanding of economic indicators to form more accurate assessments.
In conclusion, the speaker paints a grim picture of the job market, suggesting that the decreasing trend in job openings indicates broader economic challenges. By pointing out inconsistencies in the narrative surrounding job openings and economic recovery, he urges viewers to adopt a more critical approach to analyzing economic data.