How Countries Die
There are a lot of things taking place in the world. Many are making forecasts about what will happen. While predicting the future is very difficult, there are some things we can incorporate into our analysis that can tell us where things are heading.
One of the biggest issues is that of demographics. This is a little watched field especially as it pertains to economics. Unfortunately, the situation is rather dire.
We also live in a world of a lot of misinformation. Have you heard about the population problems? Of course. Since the 1970s, we were told the population was getting out of hand and we would end up reproducing to the point where people would be starving to death.
Sadly, for anyone keeping this viewpoint, it is completely wrong. To start, we have less starvation than we did three decades ago. We now produce enough food to feed the entire planet. Hence, we do not have a food production problem but, rather, one of distribution.
That said, the population problem is not from too many people. Instead, we are confronting a path where underpopulation is the biggest problem facing us. This is something clear as day for anyone who is willing to look.
The biggest factor is fertility rate and almost every developed country is under replacement rate. At the same time, the two largest nations in terms of population, China and India, are both below it. The former is going to be highlighted in this article.
Demographics are predictable. This is something that we can forecast out because, if you are low of 20 years old, then in 2 decades you will be short on those who are 40.
So let us take a look at what is going on.
The Next Japan
Everyone is aware of the situation in Japan. That country has the lost decade (actually 3 but who is counting) due to their demographic decline. This is a problem that gets worse with each passing year. It is a reality that once a woman leaves child bearing age, she no longer can add to the population. This only compounds the problem as Japan found out.
With that, here are countries that are waiting to die.
Germany
THis is a bad situation. When we look at the demographic tree of this country, it is ugly. There is no economic model for what this nation is facing.
Let is start with a look at the chart.
Source
It is interesting that someone made a note on the chart detailing the problem. Notice how tight it is at the bottom. There are going to be a lot fewer people in this country by the middle of the century.
There is another problem. Look at the most populous range: those in their 50-60s. Here we have a group of people who will all be retired by the middle of the next decade. Thus, they are out of the workforce, not producing, reducing their spending, and drawing in social benefits.
How is the country going to pay for them? Obviously there will be much smaller tax base to draw from.
This is why Germany is trying to import immigrants. This is an issue since assimilation is not something most of these European countries excel at.
Russia
It is rather ironic to see the Russians and Germans bickering over energy since they are both in the same boat. The reality is both countries are screwed.
Russia is better than Germany only in that it has a bit more time. In this regard, they run about a decade behind but end up at the same point as the Germans.
Source
Russia would have until around 2050 before they encounter major issues as compared to today. That would be under normal circumstances. With Russia, things are anything but normal.
A challenge for them is the baby bust they had after the fall of the Soviet Union. The last Soviet children are now in their 30s. This means that the numbers get a lot slimmer after that. It could explain why Putin was forced to make a military move now. In another 10 years, Russian will be unable to field troops unless they want to send a bunch of 40 year olds into combat.
There is another problem facing Russia: men do not have great longevity. The average life expectancy of a Russia male is around 60. Notice how the men start to be dwarfed by the women as they proceed through their 50s.
What this means is that many of the male side of the chart, between 35-50 today, will be gone in the next 20 years. The early 2040s could see a problem for the Russians.
China
Here we have another country that could be in a lot of trouble by the middle of this century. Certainly, when we are dealing with a population of over 1.3 billion people, there is plenty of room to negotiate.
Unfortunately, demographics can be unforgiving.
This is what things look like for the Chinese.
From a population perspective, this is China's heyday. It only gets worse from here. Once again, add 20 years to the chart, putting us in the 2040s, and things look bad.
Things do not get better after that. If we focus upon the group just entering child bearing age, we see a lot fewer women then in previous generations. Hence, even if the birthrate stays the same, the fact there are a lot fewer females means the population is going to encounter issues.
This Is How Countries Die
Countries need people to remain economically vibrant. No matter what the system, consumption is required. At the same time, those who are exports, like Germany and China, will only find it more difficult to remain competitive as their populations implode.
If you have less people, that means an increase in exports is required. This is problematic if the rest of the world is facing a similar situation. With the demographic issues most of Europe has, are they going to want to increase the goods they buy from Germany? Not likely.
These countries are basically dead on their feet. It is interesting to watch the media and how they frame them. This gets to be downright humorous when looking at the situation. Often, when I see reports about the future of these countries as powers, I ask "how?".
We all heard of zombie corporations. Perhaps we start to apply that term to countries.
This his literally how countries die, at least on a global perspective.
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Thanks for writing about an important issue and its also different topic, mostly we see you wrote about cryptocurrency and finance
Every country should focus on papulation management and equal distribution of resources and wealth
The U.S. and, especially, Canada have somewhat healthier demographic profiles but only because of immigration.
Thanks for sharing this very interesting perspective! It's actually a highly important economic topic. ☺️
I do think there's a cyclical effect to the population changes as well. You'll notice that there are times when population growth increases in rate, and other times when it slows down - then the cycle repeats again. On a larger time frame, it's more common to see lower population growth in highly developed nations with great economic stability, while nations which are underdeveloped or undergoing turmoil tend to have higher rates of population growth. Sometimes the timelines of population changes overlap with development or turmoil, as there is a reaction to ongoing changes. For instance, Russia was improving its power and economic steed in the world for a few decades, and population growth slowed down. From this point forward, it will likely be undergoing turmoil for quite a bit of time, so there's a good chance we'll see population growth increase with some lagging effect.
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This is definitely going to be interesting to watch unfold. Sad to see but as others have said, it's part of a cycle. I just hope that we can combat the wild inaccuracies of the eugenecists like Ehrlich with populations being too big and all that horse shit, so that people will have more kids to stabilize populations.
With the mass gene therapy experiments, over the next few years the 0-4 bracket may take a nose dive.
It is positive to combat Climate Change.The world will become sustainable by 2030, well ahead of 2050.
The debt based system of things like social security will be the downfall and I agree that demographics are an issue. I think immigration will help offset the issue but I just don't think people are that interested in having kids anymore.
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At least Zombie corporations can have an appearance of life via government intervention. How about Zombie nations? Who will help them reverse the tide?
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An eye. opening article. I am surprised by the German and Russian numbers. Why aren't they reproducing? Curious. Japan I have heard about...
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On a global scale, there is a shift, but the population is growing. India is growing in population. Some African countries. Brazil, in South America, is probably growing.
That's what some people who've looked at the demographics say. But Russia's real manpower problem is the lack of well-trained reservists and the lack of a proper mobilization system as a whole. There are 14.3 million men aged 20-35 in Russia. That's more than enough to field an army of 1-2 million men, which should be sufficient for any task.
The problem is that about a decade ago, the general mobilization system inherited from the Soviet Union was dismantled. That explains the chaotic manner in which the current "partial mobilization" has proceeded. A mass mobilization system also depends on adequate numbers of qualified trainers and training facilities as well as materiel and equipment in working condition or able to be refurbished quickly enough to field as part of a mobilization process. It does not help if fielding the equipment requires industrial rebuilding. Corruption has hollowed out the existing preparedness to an extent foreign military experts or even Russian leaders were unaware of.
What we're looking at is Russia throwing poorly prepared reservists and convicts (in the ranks of the Wagner Group, a PMC) into the meat grinder while a proportion are receiving better training (or maybe not) in Russia or Belarus.
By the way, Russia is already sending men aged 40-50 into combat. Some of them have scarcely any training let alone fresh training. They've even been sending alcoholics and chronically ill people into training centers for quick training and then into combat. This explains the huge numbers of KIA they've had in the last three months. Many of the wounded who would've been successfully treated in the field and evacuated into safety in any Western military have bled to death due to the poor field medical supplies and training. Reportedly, at least 700 000 men have left the country after the "special military operation" began last February.
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Another problem in these 'democracies' (e.g. Austria, Japan) is the fact that there are by far more old people voting. They tend to be conservative, nostalgic and they do not see the long game.
The biggest problem with Germany is they thought by accepting the refugees in they could fill the void ,but the problem is the entire culture will change.