The Macro Moment: Is The Data Pointing Towards Recession?
We got a lot of US data out today. The question is what is it telling us.
In this video I discuss what I am going to be watching. At the top of the list was the second round of Q3 GDP. It was revised from 2.2% down to 2.1%. There was some other data which is concerning.
▶️ 3Speak
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Yikes, the human toll of this downturn + Automation in the workplace is going to catch many by surprise
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I do think demand is dropping because prices are going to go up. I think some of the more general food items (stock earnings reports) are going up 10-20% when the new year starts. In this case I think demand will only drop because people don't have enough discretionary income.
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Summary:
Task presented a macroeconomic update on various indicators for the United States, expressing concerns about the mixed economic news. Key points discussed included a decrease in the GDP growth rate for the third quarter, unexpected increases in oil inventories, disparities between personal income and spending, a decline in durable goods purchases, and shifts in consumer sentiment and new home sales. Task highlighted potential issues with the economy, such as decreasing demand and the impact of high energy prices, suggesting that these trends could have implications for future economic performance and Fed policy decisions.
Detailed Article:
In this video, Task discussed various economic indicators focusing on the United States economy. The key highlight was the revised GDP growth rate for the third quarter, which dropped from 2.2% to 2.1%. He expressed surprise at the decline, attributing it to worse-than-expected economic performance. Task linked this decrease to the Federal Reserve's projections for the upcoming quarters, indicating a potentially challenging economic outlook.
Another notable point of discussion was the unexpected increase in oil inventories, with stocks rising by 1.07 million barrels instead of an expected decrease. Task raised concerns about oil production and hinted at potential demand-side issues affecting the oil market.
Task delved into personal income and spending data, emphasizing a troubling trend where spending was outpacing income growth. He highlighted the implications of this imbalance for individuals' debt levels and overall economic health, signaling a potentially unsustainable situation.
Durable goods purchases were another area of concern, with a consecutive decline over the past few months. Task pointed out the significance of durable goods spending for private companies and employment, underlining the potential impact on broader economic activity.
Shifting to consumer sentiment and real estate trends, Task noted improvements in sentiment but raised a red flag regarding a slight slowdown in new home sales and durable goods purchases. He also touched upon a report from the Port of Los Angeles, suggesting that improved processing of ships might indicate a resolution to supply chain issues but could also reveal underlying demand challenges.
Throughout the video, Task emphasized the importance of monitoring these economic indicators, especially in the context of the United States being a significant consumer globally. He speculated on the potential ripple effects of weakening demand in the U.S. on the global economy, particularly due to high energy prices, which could strain budgets and hamper economic recovery.
In conclusion, Task cautioned that the current economic trends observed could set the tone for the upcoming quarters and influence Fed decisions on tapering. He hinted at the possibility of prolonged economic challenges if the downward trajectory continues, casting doubt on the sustainability of current economic conditions.
Overall, Task's analysis provided a comprehensive overview of the economic landscape, identifying key concerns and potential implications for future economic performance and policy decisions, urging viewers to stay informed and watch for further developments in the coming months.