The Macro Moment: China's Numbers Were Expected To Be Bad

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And they were worse than expected.

In this video I discuss how we are looking at a massive pullback in the numbers coming out of China. When the second largest economy, and largest exporter, is sucking wind so bad, it is not a positive sign. This is what we were warning about since last year.


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21 comments
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5 years this has been happening to me, it started here, around people that are still here. Homeland security has done nothing at all, they are not here to protect us. Dont we pay them to stop shit like this? The NSA, CIA, FBI, Police and our Government has done nothing. Just like they did with the Havana Syndrome, nothing. Patriot Act my ass. The American government is completely incompetent. The NSA should be taken over by the military and contained Immediately for investigation. I bet we can get to the sources of V2K and RNM then. https://peakd.com/gangstalking/@acousticpulses/electronic-terrorism-and-gaslighting--if-you-downvote-this-post-you-are-part-of-the-problem

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5 years this has been happening to me, it started here, around people that are still here. Homeland security has done nothing at all, they are not here to protect us. Dont we pay them to stop shit like this? The NSA, CIA, FBI, Police and our Government has done nothing. Just like they did with the Havana Syndrome, nothing. Patriot Act my ass. The American government is completely incompetent. The NSA should be taken over by the military and contained Immediately for investigation. I bet we can get to the sources of V2K and RNM then. https://peakd.com/gangstalking/@acousticpulses/electronic-terrorism-and-gaslighting--if-you-downvote-this-post-you-are-part-of-the-problem

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We're heading to an underwater cliff it seems like more and more every day.

underwater_cliff_dive.png

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The numbers are indeed not going the way they should. This drop in numbers will affect not just the China economy but the global economy.

Thank you @taskmaster4450le for this beautiful update.

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it is dangerous for all world economies that China has problems since the vast majority of goods are manufactured in that country. So keep an eye on it and be attentive.

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"Worse than bad" ...

Oh well, welcome to another threat to the global economy.

These numbers are frightening especially for developing countries. I really do not know what ways can people follow to save themselves from the collapse

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I agree that China doesn't look that great. From what I saw, I think they defaulted on any dollar-denominated debt and they are only paying the yuan debt. So with that in mind, I don't see why the numbers would go up and they are likely to continue going down.

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That doesnt surprise me about the debt. I didnt see it yet the drop in the YUAN versus the USD means that getting the money to pay the USD denominated debt goes up. They have to get more YUAN to pay the same amount of USD.

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I’ll give this a listen soon! It’s crazy that people think the worlds just peachy. My fear is they often resort to war to boost the economy back. Will it be a war China and Russia versus US and allies? That would be terrible.

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Summary:
In this episode, the speaker delves into the recent economic data coming out of China, focusing on various key metrics such as retail sales, industrial production, infrastructure spending, investment in real estate, and unemployment. The speaker highlights significant declines in these metrics, painting a concerning picture of the Chinese economy's current state. The episode concludes with a discussion on the potential implications of China's economic struggles on the global economy, particularly in terms of supply chain disruptions and inflation.

Detailed Analysis:
The discussion starts with retail sales in China, which were expected to decrease by 6.1% but actually dropped by 11.1%. This significant miss indicates a severe impact of COVID-related lockdowns on consumer spending and the overall economic vibrancy. The speaker notes the ripple effects of income loss and how the situation is unlikely to improve quickly.

Moving on to industrial output, which was anticipated to rise by 0.05%, saw a decline of 0.9%. Given China's status as a manufacturing powerhouse, a downturn in industrial production could have far-reaching consequences not only domestically but also globally.

Infrastructure spending is highlighted as a positive aspect, with a 5.6% increase, aligning with the Chinese government's commitment to invest in infrastructure. However, investment in real estate, which comprises a significant portion of China's economy, faced a decline of 2.7%. The discussion touches on the government's focus on completing real estate projects despite defaults in US dollar-denominated debt.

Unemployment rates in China show concerning trends, with an estimated jump to 6.1%, particularly urban unemployment at 6.7%. The speaker emphasizes the scale of the issue due to China's large population size and its potential impact on the overall economy.

The episode concludes with a reflection on the broader implications of China's economic challenges. There is a prediction of potential supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures in the global economy due to China's reduced production capacity. The speaker questions the effectiveness of monetary tightening policies in combating inflation if Chinese production remains constrained.

The speaker acknowledges the possibility of discrepancies in Chinese economic data and encourages vigilance in monitoring key economic indicators for a more accurate assessment of the situation. The episode leaves the audience with a view of the interconnectedness of the global economy and the importance of monitoring China's economic health for broader implications.

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