Russian Sanctions Are Working...Against the EU
Is it time to make it official? Can we now say we have some of the leaders in the West ever seen in the history of humanity? Certainly it is not just one country but most of them. This is not, of course, exclusive to the EU. We can add the UK, USA, and Canada into the mix.
We also can note this is nothing new as we can cite Trump, Tony Blair and Bush 2 as other examples. This has been going on for a while.
Nevertheless, the trend seems to keep moving further down. Unfortunately, the damage is being done and average people are suffering in a major way.
Of course, sanctions against Russia was a braindead affair from the start.
Food and Energy Prices Soaring
I said earlier in the year, the Europeans would be kissing Putin's ring come fall. It was so obvious that a blind person could have seen it. Sadly, the Brits along with those in the EU are really feeling the pain. Just wait until the weather starts to turn cold.
The above image shows how things are going for the UK versus Russia. Of course, if we think back a few months, Boris Johnson has the bright idea of wanting to sanction Germany for buying Russian gas. If nothing else, at least that fool is being booted from office. Sadly, the replacement is likely equally as bad.
At the core of the issue is trying to crush the Russian economy. That was complete stupidity simply because of the baseline they operate from. When one understands that, it shows how the Russians could not be truly harmed.
What is their baseline?
Russia is a major food and energy producer. This means that, no matter how bad their economy gets, they can still feed their people and keep the heat on. The same cannot be said for the EU.
Since they depend upon the sun shining and the wind blowing (in addition to whatever comes out of Johnson's mouth), they were in trouble. Germany decided to close all nuke plants. This turned out to be a foolish move by Merkel. Now they are dependent upon the Russians to keep warm.
Nord Stream 1 Turned Off
The Germans are about to feel the pinch. We see the Russians turning off Nord Stream 1, the major flow of gas to Germany.
For their part, the Russians are claiming the sanctions against the country and its energy companies are to blame.
“Problems in pumping arose because of the sanctions imposed against our country and against a number of companies by Western states, including Germany and the U.K.,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday, according to Russian state news agency Interfax.
Well, we know Dimitry is full of crap. The Russians are doing this on purpose. Sure there could be some problems with the pipeline and difficulties in getting parts. This, naturally, feeds into the stupidity of the West for cutting off needed supplies such as this.
That said, it is rather convenient as we head into Fall and the temperatures are going to start moving down.
Perhaps the Europeans have a different take.
European lawmakers have repeatedly accused Russia, traditionally its largest energy supplier, of weaponizing energy exports in an attempt to drive up commodity prices and sow uncertainty across the 27-nation bloc. Moscow denies using energy as a weapon.
Once again, the Russians are full of crap. Of course they are weaponizing energy. Why wouldn't they? Do any of these morons in leadership positions in London, Washington, Ottawa or Brussels think the Russian government is going to sit by idly and take what the West is delivering? Of course not.
It appears the Germans would love to have an 80% increase in their energy bills. Unless this situation gets resolved, we are likely to see their bills drop a great deal. When there is no gas flowing, no bill is going to arrive. Better have a lot of extra blankets.
Outsmarting A Room Full Of Idiots
Putin might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer. Did he see this coming as a result of his action or did he luck into it? I have no idea. Whatever the case, the backlash against his move on Ukraine is working to his advantage. Once again, when a country can feed itself and keep the energy flowing no matter how poor its economy is, trying to destroy it economically is not a bright idea.
For this reason, the leaders of Western Europe are going to have to swallow their pride and kiss the ring. If they hold onto their arrogance, then millions are going to suffer. As stated, it is one thing to have high energy prices; it is a completely different manner when it comes to having no energy at all.
Then we have the United States. The old man sleeping in the White House is causing major havoc. Well, actually, whomever is his puppet master is. Fortunately for the American citizens, they are going to go mostly unharmed. Being a full ocean away while also being able to fully support oneself does have its advantages. Once again, the United States gets to create mischief without having to feel the full repercussions.
We have to wonder if Putin was the head of Germany, and this was being done, how would he react? Would he sit there and take it like most of the leaders in the EU are?
Naturally, we will never know. What is becoming obvious is that everyday Germans, British, Irish, and Italians are suffering. The sad part is it will likely get worse. As we approach fall, unless something changes, the ramifications are only going to grow.
Germany is still the largest part of the EU economy. How is it going to fare if the energy is cut off, even for a portion of the time? What will that do to the rest of the Eurozone?
At the same time, businesses are seeing their energy bills go through the roof. How do they handle that? Obviously the money has to come from somewhere. That means no raises for employees and likely job cuts. It is easy to see how this could push the EU into a depression.
The crippling of the economy due to sanctions appears it might be working. What could be a problem is the fact it is the wrong economy that is bearing the brunt of it.
This might be the first time we can see a block of nations sanctioned itself.
Perhaps it is time to try another tactic to try and get Putin to leave Ukraine. The present approach appears to be only aiding him in his fight with the West.
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It's a good one for Russia, if it's luck or strategic, what's important now is that it all worked out in their favour.
The sanction was a ridiculous move... Putin was 2 steps ahead... Note: Winter is coming😩😩
What's the missing adjective?
Inquiring minds gotta know.
"incompetent"?
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I was assuming he meant to include the word "worst" :-)
But IMO it doesn't have much to do with the elected leaders at all, but instead the long-term people who advise on strategy with Russia. I also think task has this one all wrong, and that those guys know exactly what they are doing in this case.
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the nightmare that doesn't end..
I have to respectfully disagree with most of your thesis. I think you're looking at the sanctions too much in isolation from the overall battle between Russia and the western world.
In my opinion, Putin made probably the dumbest mistake in modern warfare by invading Ukraine, and Russia is going to lose most of its influence in the world as a result. So that's my "meta-view", but let's take a look at the details.
First, let's look at one of the key elements: the war in Ukraine itself. Russia had built up one of the largest conventional armies in the world and this was one of its major threats to other countries. But the foolish decision to invade Ukraine has allowed the west to engage in a proxy war with Russia with none of the losses of personnel that would have typically prevented a united front among western countries which are notoriously subject to "loss of appetite" for war with even small numbers of casualties. Now the west is systematically dismantling Russian military power and even making it look like a joke in the process.
Russia is now engaged in a grinding war that they are going to slowly lose, and Putin can't pull out without risking being overthrown as a result of the humiliating defeat involved. I've actually often wondered if the west didn't slow walk some of the military aid at Ukraine at the beginning just to make sure Putin was still optimistic to the point that he committed enough forces that he couldn't pull out early and declare his "special operation" had achieved some false victory. The rapid increase we see now makes me think that my early assessment of US strategy was correct (although the US military will never admit it, of course).
So let's move on to the second arm of this battle, the economic one. You're assuming that the sanctions were to stop the war. If that were true, it would be fair to say that the sanctions have failed, since of course there was never any chance that the sanctions would stop the war: if nothing else, Putin could never stop the warn based on the sanctions and save face, and once again he would come up looking weak. But what if you've completely missed the real aim of the sanctions?
The real effect of the sanctions, intentional or not (and again I believe the intention was there, because there are some smart people in State department, despite the incompetence of most of our elected officials), is to weaken Russia's status in the world and its ability to project its power into the world. The Russian government has been a thorn in the side of the western world ever since the Soviet Union era and is directly responsible for a lot of the current problems around the developing world.
Russia's actions in Ukraine gave the western world a legitimate argument for imposing severe sanctions on Russia, and these sanctions have already an immense impact on Russia. If you just look at the dollars from oil & gas, sure, it seems small. But the truth is a powerful nation has to have many types of industry, not just one. It's fine to have a really big source of money from resources, but if you lack all the rest, you're not going to be a major player in the world. The sanctions have already decimated foreign investment in Russia, and that money isn't likely to return any time soon.
And the counter steps by Russia to the sanctions with regard to contracts and nationalization will have destroyed any trust in any likely Russian government for decades to come.
And that's not counting the inevitable brain drain that's occurring as all the smart tech guys leave for a better life. Ukraine was asking for a ban on visas for Russians, but you can absolutely bet on that not happening: it's something the west wants to happen because it once again weakens Russia in the long term.
Again, I think it's a classic case of the US outplaying Putin (I say the US because I think much of the ultimate strategy is led by the US). They played a slow walk game on the sanctions, leaving Putin to think that Russia could weather them without much problem, then slowly tightened the screws after he dug in on Ukraine more and more. Putin played right into their hand.
Russia was already very slowly turning into "first among 3rd world countries" in many respects where its entire economy was predicated on O&G wealth, due to its corrosively corrupt government. But the pace of that decline has dramatically accelerated and the West wins as a result, although the world will all pay the cost in the short term.
My best guess is that once the West has totally crushed Russia's technical economy (which doesn't seem like it will be long at this point and probably has already happened) and the West is no longer benefiting from Putin-based insanity, there will be a strong effort at regime change in Russia (internal/external/probably both). If nothing else, Russia is full of Ukrainians, and one thing that should be very obvious at this point is that those guys can carry serious grudges. The real threat in all of this, of course, is the chance that Putin will pull some really insane move and use nuclear weapons. But I also wouldn't be surprised if there's enough intelligence on that front to detect the beginnings of such an effort and lead to an acceleration of that regime change option.
So, finally, to address your counterpoint arguments about the costs to the West, I think it is important to point out the economic damage, while real, won't be but so damaging on the long term scale. I'll completely agree with you that Germany was stupid to shut down their nuclear power plants (I was very much against it when it happened), but despite such missteps, Europe will absolutely recover (although the US will obviously gain in relative strength during this whole affair due to its strong energy position).
In the long term, there may even be some benefits for Europe in highlighting the urgency for a move to renewables for electric power generation. Gas will continue to be used for a long time for heating, of course, but I suspect its future use will be prioritized in that direction (along with industrial use, ofc), and it's not like all the gas that will get bottled up in Russia isn't still there, ready to be consumed once things change there. Higher prices will also likely lead to more economical use of fuel: as a society, the west has been amazingly wasteful because of its extreme wealth, and it's really a shame how inefficiently and sometimes outright wastefully we've been using oil and natural gas in particular.
This would suffice for a complete post in response.
Great input I must say.
I only wish there would be a peaceful resolution to this crisis.
Me too. War is surely the single most wasteful activity of mankind and we really need to get to a point in development of civilization as fast as possible where a few nutty idiots can't create them.
But for now, I don't see Putin backing down easily and the Ukrainians and the west won't for sure, so I would make a 50/50 bet that regime change in Russia will be the most likely way it ultimately ends.
And you do we arrive at that?
Is it a combination of financial, technological, and societal change to the point where it becomes intolerable.
We saw a rise over the last 100 years in the standard of living in many countries yet the wars (even though not defined officially as such) keep coming.
Do we just start executing the nutcases?
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There are two somewhat obvious steps I think:
You bring up a lot of good points.
To me, which you alluded to, the long term prospects of Russia were written before any of this. The two biggest factors that I see are:
Those two factors led me to believe the path for them is written. By the way, the German demographics are also troubling so I think they are going to have issues going forward.
You bring up a great point about the elected leadership versus those who are actually running things. This could bring up an entirely different discussion about who is in power and the deep state versus the "front people". I do agree we can say the West but when it comes to these matters, it is likely the US is running the show.
As for the war tactics themselves, I think Putin followed a winning strategy. Unfortunately, the Ukrainians mounted a defense he did not see in 2008 and 2013 (I believe those were the years). That approach failed as did their second tactic. But isnt that what military strategy is about? Adjusting and adapting.
I think part of the reason that the West views his approach as a failure is because he didn't do what the US does. It seems we like to go in full force, level everything in site, then give billions (trillions) to rebuild what we just destroyed. Putin didnt want to obliterate Kiev or level the country in my opinion. Sure he engaged in WWII style tactics in terms of the invasion but, when it comes to that warfare, the Russians do excel.
If there is regime change, which might be the case, we will have to see if that is of benefit to the West and/or Russia. There is a chance the one who steps is could be nuttier. Personally, I dont think Putin would go the nuke route but there are some other high up the Russian food chain who might.
To me the EU is cooked. Before the situation with Russia I predicted negative annual GDP growth for the Eurozone within 3 years. Right now the NY banks do not want to touch EU debt. That is going to make funding all the promises they made very difficult. Couple that with the demographics issue that are starting to hit in Germany, Italy, and Spain, and we can see where a path like Japan could arise.
And yes, this is a hindrance to the US without much long term impact. We see to wage these battles and not feel the impact. The US economy is not only the largest, but the most diverse. We also have physical safety by being bordered by two oceans. Our banking and financial system is the most advanced. Finally, we have a currency and bonds which never were defaulted on nor destroyed.
All that leads to the future where the US, in spite of its issues, still standing on the global stage. The question is who is else is going to be there?
China? That could be the subject of my next article.
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I would in general agree, but that's a 2 edges sword. And in general Europe and Russia are pretty much all in at this point ( on different sectors, but same effects).
If this should become a forever war, things can become much worse than today. Second-world states already moving together.
And the political damage is already done ( because of weak communication in western states).
IDK, we saw forever wars in the past. If this should become one, it will damage all players.
Sadly the pawns are the ones filling the pain more.
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The people are the ones who always suffer when the politicians and bureaucrats start to play their games. They operate from afar while there are innocent people feeling the pain of famine, bombs, and violence.
It is repeated throughout history. Ukraine is just another on the list in this century which isnt even 25% done. We can add in many other nations like Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan to the list.
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European leaders have long since lost their minds. They believe that there are much more important things than a home and a plate of food on the table.
Well, we already sanctioned them and sending weapons to Ukraine. Other than declaring war what we can do? Hard times are coming to a lot of people for sure. The US is winning here with the EU sitting in the middle of the shitstorm created by the big guys.
If only this crisis would be amicably resolved.
It seems like, at the elected level, nobody is working for peace. We have leaders who just want to inflame things.
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the EU may be the most affected so the nations continue to enter into disputes to see who has more power and nobody wants to give even a little
It's a dumb move to sanction Russia and I knew that Russia would weaponize it against them back. It's too bad that they never built those backup plans when they had a chance because they didn't want to spend the money.
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There is one element that might explain current European policies towards Russia and which is missing from most considerations. "Good old" nationalism.
It is best seen in so-called Old Europe, countries which were part of USSR, Russian Empire or East Bloc, where the notion of settling decades or centuries old grievances appears to carry more weight than worrying about having to experiences years of previously unimaginable economic pain. I live in part of the world where the same kind of reasoning took hold in late 1980s and early 1990s. With devastating long-term consequences, of course.
The phenomenon is, for obvious reason, less prevalent in West European countries, but with enough economic pain, decline of civilisation amenities generations took for granted an/or media manipulation, can rear its ugly head. And in some rather unpredictable and rather dangerous ways.
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