Where Is AI Going And What Is The Impact Of The Economy?
The subject of AI brings out two camps: one that believes it will bring utopia to society or those who feel that all will be dystopian. The reality is neither is correct.
In this video we discuss how AGI does not appear to be in our future for at least decades. That said, there will be a massive paradigm shift in business due to what we are creating. This will end up affecting labor, manufacturing, and real estate.
▶️ 3Speak
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every paradigm shift sometimes affects many aspects of our lives and this should not be the exception. What we must have is to have a broad mind before innovating ideas
While I agree with your general assessment that true AGI is a ways off. I think your view of what is currently possible is off kilter though.
Let's look at DALL-E 2 at first glance it just a painting/art AI. But its ability to recognize different objects and more importantly combine multiple objects into a coherent design is pretty staggering. It's not the one trick recognition pony you are talking about. If allowed to expand into non art work I am sure it would quickly identify the important data/objects.
The Chinchilla AI on the other hand shows us the you can get better results with an order of magnitude fewer data points if the AI is full/correctly trained. This and GPT3 already outperform most high school students at writing tasks.
Okay, last thing. It doesn't taking AGI to devastate the population just 10x better/cheaper than a human would be in the economy and we are awfully close to that already.
Summary:
In this video, the speaker discusses the advancements in AI and the potential impact on society. He addresses the two contrasting views regarding AI - one optimistic about technological advancements and the other concerned about a dystopian future. The speaker believes that while AI brings significant progress, it also presents challenges and unintended consequences. He argues that current AI models are more focused on narrow intelligence rather than achieving true AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). The speaker mentions Elon Musk's efforts in AGI and robotics, expressing skepticism about the timeline for achieving general purpose humanoids. He emphasizes the increasing role of automation, robotics, and software in various industries, which will lead to significant changes in the business world and labor force.
Detailed Analysis:
The video starts with the speaker highlighting the ongoing advancements in AI, acknowledging that while AI has taken a back seat in recent years, it continues to progress rapidly. He points out the contrasting views on AI, with one camp optimistic about a technological utopia and the other fearing a dystopian future reminiscent of movies like Skynet. The speaker argues that both views are flawed, as advancements in AI, like any other technology, come with both benefits and challenges.
He delves into the distinction between Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), explaining that current AI trends are focused on narrow intelligence that excels in specific tasks rather than general adaptability. The speaker expresses skepticism about the near-term attainment of AGI, believing that the current AI development path primarily relies on increased computational power and data.
The speaker discusses Elon Musk's endeavors in AGI and robotics, particularly highlighting the challenges in developing dexterity in robots. He points out that while AI can excel in specific tasks, such as self-driving technology, it lacks the versatility to perform more complex actions like cooking. The speaker emphasizes that automation, robotics, and software automation will have a significant impact on the labor force and business landscape over the next decade.
Furthermore, the speaker foresees major shifts in the business world due to automation and AI, leading to disruptions, affecting profitability, and potentially benefiting disruptors over established companies. He emphasizes the impact of AI on various industries, mentioning the integration of management tools and robotic process automation (RPA) in tasks like data entry and manipulation. The speaker concludes by underlining the transformative effects of AI and automation on society, pointing out that the true implications of AGI may only be a concern after the initial wave of automation and robotic adoption.