The US Economy Officially In Recession (Regardless Of What White House Says)

I agree with what the White House said.

We are not in a recession....

We are in the GREATER DEPRESSION

Going to get worse for sure and honestly Hive is proving to be almost like a saving grace in terms of value compared to the overall market.

I'm sure we will soon see deep discounts on many things such as new home building and other items as lumber has already come way down from it's all time highs and the housing markets seem to be cooling off.

Totally agree though Food and Energy are going to stick with us and very well could stick with us for a very long time. Grow your own food and offset energy as much as possible are going to be two powerful ways to hold on to your value.

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so this is the positive part of the year hopefully not and the second half of 2022 will bring better opportunities for all of us

When will they admit the recession while everyone acknowledges this fact?

The winter will be worse than ever. The recession + inflation will be unbearable for many developing countries.

The definition is what matters and we are there. It's kind of dumb to see what the white house is saying because they want to change the narrative. It isn't working unless you're dumb.

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Summary:

In this video, Task discusses the latest economic data indicating that the U.S. is officially in a recession, despite some efforts to redefine the situation. He points out the consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, with the economy shrinking by almost one percent in the second quarter. Task emphasizes that the economic decline is slowing down but warns that the real challenges are expected in the second half of the year. He highlights issues like rising food and energy costs impacting household budgets, slowing real estate and automobile sales, and potential increases in unemployment. Task also delves into global economic trends, highlighting challenges in the EU and China. He stresses the importance of looking at forward-looking indicators to understand the true state of the economy, rather than relying on traditional economic metrics like inflation. Task concludes with a cautionary note, advising viewers to brace for worsening economic conditions ahead.

Detailed Analysis:

Task starts by addressing the recent economic data showing that the U.S. is officially in a recession, despite attempts to downplay the situation. He notes that the economy shrank by nearly one percent in the second quarter, following a 1.6 percent decline in the first quarter. Task points out that while the rate of decline may be slowing, the economy is still on a downward trajectory. He cautions that the slowdown is likely to continue in the second half of the year, with challenges such as rising food and energy costs impacting consumer spending.

Task highlights that increased expenditures on essentials like food and energy leave households with less disposable income, affecting other sectors of the economy. He mentions the slowdown in real estate and automobile sales as indicators of weakening consumer demand. Task also notes concerns about inflation and unemployment, anticipating a rise in joblessness as companies adjust to economic realities.

Moving on to a global perspective, Task draws parallels with China, where despite apparent growth in import numbers in U.S. dollars, actual import volumes have decreased. He suggests that similar trends are likely to be observed in the EU, given the economic challenges faced by the region. Task emphasizes the importance of analyzing trends rather than fixating on specific data points that may be subject to revision or manipulation.

Task critiques traditional economic indicators like the Phillips curve, dismissing them as obsolete and unreliable for predicting future economic trends. He advocates for focusing on leading indicators such as inventories and CapEx to gain insights into the economy's health. Task points to examples like the oil industry, where reduced capital expenditures signal a potential decrease in oil production, exacerbating supply chain issues.

Task concludes with a warning about the need to prepare for worsening economic conditions. He mentions the recent interest rate hike by the Fed and the lukewarm response from the bond market, indicating investor skepticism. Task reiterates the importance of paying attention to reliable indicators rather than succumbing to hype or emotion-driven narratives prevalent in mainstream financial media.

In summary, Task's analysis provides a sobering assessment of the current economic situation, urging viewers to stay vigilant and brace for the challenges that lie ahead.