Dallas Fed Telling Us What The Philly Fed: Manufacturing Sucks
This is becoming a trend. The latest report out of the Dallas Fed regarding manufacturing in the state gave no reason for optimism.
In this video I talk about the numbers and how bad they really are. They are rivaling May of 2020.
This chart tells it all.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/dallas-fed-manufacturing-index
▶️ 3Speak
0
0
0.000
didn't you hear, @taskmaster4450le , we're not in a recession - the white house blog told me so!
They are right about the definition, officially. Of course, to be in a recession, we have to look in hindsight. And if I am not mistaken, Q1 was negative in GDP. Naturally, that could be adjusted as they revise the numbers.
As the old saying goes, recession or not, if you lose your job, it is a depression.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
true words, @taskmaster4450le . Isn't it silly they cite as the first factors they're considering are lagging indicators like employment? Do these people think we'll never rise up and dethrone them/? I know they think we're stupid, but they can't also truly belive they'll get away with this. they change the definition of m1 money supply too....hate this country right now.
That is valid. So is the M2. They are basically worthless in this era, have been since the 1960s. When people understand what the monetary system is all about, they will stop believing in these garbage things the Fed and government talks about.
Having a clear understanding of how things words and not mythology is vital. Sadly, most opt for the later.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
but these numbers reflect a trend that could also allow us to show signs of improvement
How do you see signs of improvement? The chart shows things are going the other way.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I think things will just get worst because the demand from retail just isn't there. Walmart's earnings were a huge miss and I don't think they will be ordering a lot of stuff.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Was that the Q2 or Q1 earnings?
I didnt pay attention to what retail is doing this quarter (if they started announcing).
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Q2 earnings. It definitely wasn't a good look.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Summary:
In this video, the speaker discusses the recent numbers released by the Dallas Federal Reserve regarding business activity for manufacturing in Texas. The speaker notes a significant decrease in the General Business Activity index, indicating a drop in manufacturing orders and activity. The speaker expresses concerns about the state of the economy, questioning the current narrative of economic strength and inflation while pointing out potential challenges ahead. The speaker also raises issues related to inventory levels, supply chain disruptions, and the possibility of a recession looming based on the data presented.
Detailed Article:
The video begins with the speaker, Task, introducing the topic of discussion, which revolves around the recent numbers released by the Dallas Federal Reserve related to manufacturing activity in Texas. Task highlights the importance of the Dallas region, known for being oil country, and sets the context by referencing the previous discussion on the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. The speaker dives into the specifics, revealing that the General Business Activity index for Manufacturing in Texas dropped to negative 22.6 in July 2022, the lowest since May 2020, indicating a significant decline in activity.
Task points out the implications of this decrease, especially concerning new orders which are dropping at an accelerating rate. The speaker draws parallels with the situation in May 2020 during the lockdowns, emphasizing the concerning similarity in the current state of manufacturing activity. Despite some indicators of growth such as the production index and growth rate, the overall trend signals a decline. The speaker questions the narrative of economic strength and inflation, attributing the situation to factors like inventory levels and production disruptions.
The discussion shifts to the potential impact of supply chain disruptions and fluctuating inventory levels on the economy. Task expresses concerns about a possible whipsaw effect between inflation and deflation as manufacturing activity fluctuates. The speaker predicts a challenging second half of the year, hinting at a looming recession based on the current data and economic indicators. Task emphasizes the interconnectedness of global manufacturing and trade, highlighting the role of Texas as a significant hub for production.
In closing, the speaker encourages caution and skepticism regarding optimistic data and challenges the prevailing narrative of economic stability and growth. Task remains cautious about the future economic outlook, cautioning the audience to be prepared for potential challenges ahead. The video concludes with a message of uncertainty and a call for vigilance in monitoring economic trends and data.