Fed Chair Powell Will Be Embarrassed By The End Of The Year
My forecast is the second half of 2022 is going to be a tough time for Jerome Powell and the Fed. Right now, I feel it absurd to be tightening when recession is looming (if not here already).
In this video I discuss how we are seeing a mirror of 2018 when the Fed decided to tighten, only to have to reverse course very quickly. This really is not going to look good by year end.
▶️ 3Speak
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A recession is absolutely already in the US, just like in China and Europe. There are a few indicators that the Fed might look at that might sway them from their current course of action (75 Basis points in July)... but they'll think that they need to kill inflation completely dead and stomp on its carcass to ensure wage inflation doesn't happen... and most likely cause a bunch of deflation in the process.
The wage spiral is already off the table. This is not going to happen. We are already seeing wages lagging the PCI. At the same time, unemployment is drifting up albeit slowly.
Official announcements of recession are always in hindsight so you are right, we can be in one even though they are not called that.
I expect the retailer to start discounting (I am sure they are already) the excess inventory they have.
Of course, once the inventory is cleared out, there is where the next wave of supply chain issues come from.
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Totally agree. Retailers won't just have excess inventory to deal with... all this talk of recession has consumers trying to save (just in case they lose their jobs) so Target, WalMart, etc might all have to out-discount each other to entice people with too-good-to-pass-up deals... while people are just trying to afford to eat and drive to work.
But... is the Fed going to be smart enough to hold off raising rates in July... the market doesn't think so...
No chance of that. We are going to see them raise without a second thought.
The latest PCE numbers give them the cover they need.
To me, the question is Sept. I give them a 50/50 chance at a raise then. Even if they do, I see then turning real dovish by the end of the year.
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Yup, even Atlanta Fed already signaling one. We done been in it already.
the recession may be even stronger so we must be very vigilant so that it does not take us by surprise and have a forecast with some money saved
Yes I think there is recession. We might already be in one and not realize it.
Vital to remember they are named after the fact.
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Summary:
In this video, Task talks about his predictions regarding Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve for the second half of the year. He highlights his belief that the Fed's approach to using unemployment and inflation as indicators is outdated and criticizes their control of market manipulation. Task discusses projections for interest rates, inventory numbers, and the semiconductor industry, indicating signs of weakness in the economy. He anticipates a rate increase by the Fed but expects a quick shift from hawkish to dovish due to economic challenges. Task concludes by suggesting that by the end of the year, the Fed will have to adopt a more dovish stance.
Detailed Article:
Task's video focuses on his analysis of Jerome Powell's outlook and the Federal Reserve's actions for the remainder of the year. He starts by discussing his pessimistic view of Jay Powell's performance in the second half of 2020, drawing parallels to the situation in 2018. Task predicts potential embarrassment for Powell due to what he perceives as outdated indicators like unemployment and inflation being used by the Fed.
He criticizes the Fed's approach, suggesting that they are fighting for relevance in the modern financial landscape. Task argues that commercial banks and the market have more control over crucial financial aspects like interest rates and money supply, undermining the Fed's role. He accuses the Fed of engaging in market manipulation, comparing their actions to those that would warrant legal repercussions for private corporations.
Task discusses the Fed's communication strategy, emphasizing that managing expectations is a primary focus for the central bank. He delves into the fluctuating interest rate scenario around Fed meetings, pointing out a pattern where rates increase before the meeting and then drop afterward, indicating market unpredictability.
Furthermore, Task analyzes inventory figures, highlighting substantial increases in inventory for major retailers like Target and Walmart, indicating potential supply chain challenges ahead. He also mentions concerns in the semiconductor industry, with declining demand for smartphones affecting chip supplies.
Task addresses the broader economic landscape, expressing skepticism about the sustainability of higher interest rates and economic growth given the current financial state. He anticipates rate increases by the Fed but suggests that economic indicators may prompt a swift shift to a dovish stance post-increase.
Finally, Task warns about seismic economic shifts and the potential for a rapid transition from inflation to deflation. He points out the fluctuations in copper and gold prices as indicators of economic trends and speculates on possible future scenarios based on these price movements.
Overall, Task's video provides a critical analysis of the Federal Reserve's policies, economic indicators, and market dynamics, offering a pessimistic outlook on the financial landscape for the rest of the year.