Richmond Manufacturing Following Dallas Fed = Bad News
The hits just keep on coming and not in a good way.
Today we get both the Richmond Fed manufacturing index along with the Dallas Fed's services index. Both were rather bad.
In this video I go through how this is on the economy and the future impact on it. We are seeing a lot of forward indications that things are not going so well.
Here are the links to the data;
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/richmond-fed-manufacturing-index
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/dallas-fed-services-index
▶️ 3Speak
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although the economic indicators say one thing for me the best option is the street that is where we can observe the reality of what is happening
You had mentioned before that investing in industrial would be a good idea but I’m wondering what you mean by that? Is there a specific industrial sector? Just looking at this for things as they go down, hoping to be able to get in at the bottom of that and follow it on up.
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Summary:
In this video, the speaker discusses the recent manufacturing numbers from both the Dallas Fed and the Richmond Fed. He emphasizes the sudden decline in manufacturing indexes and the negative impact on new orders, employment, and overall optimism in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, he highlights the shift from positive to negative numbers in the service sector, indicating a concerning trend in the economy. The speaker predicts an inevitable recession based on a variety of factors, including inventory levels, manufacturing declines, potential layoffs, and shifts in consumer spending.
Detailed Article:
The speaker starts by addressing the manufacturing numbers from the Richmond Fed, noting a significant decline in the composite manufacturing index to minus 19 in June from minus 9 in May. He highlights how this downturn is reflected in various component indexes such as shipment and volume of new orders, indicating a worrying trend of things moving backwards in the manufacturing sector over the past few months. The speaker explains the importance of new orders as a leading indicator and how their decline can forecast a future decrease in business activity and numbers.
Moving on to the service sector, the speaker discusses the negative shift in the Dallas Fed survey, with the general business activity index for services dropping to minus 12.4 in June from positive 1.5 in the previous month. He connects this decline in services to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, where products saw a surge in demand while services plummeted due to lockdowns limiting activities like dining out and personal care services. This dual decline in both manufacturing and services is used to question the strength of the U.S. economy and challenge the Federal Reserve's current actions, primarily focused on unemployment and inflation.
The speaker delves into the implications of these economic indicators, highlighting the potential for layoffs, shifts in spending, and price reductions in response to declining demand. He warns of an approaching recession, backed by metrics such as rising inventories, decreasing manufacturing numbers, and possible negative GDP growth. The speaker discusses how these factors can impact inflationary pressures, with potential repercussions on consumer and producer price indexes as manufacturing slowdowns affect raw material demand and market prices.
In conclusion, the speaker emphasizes the complex interplay between various economic factors, predicting a downward spiral in the economy over the next few years based on the current trends and indicators. He stresses the need to closely monitor leading indicators like new orders, employment trends, and price fluctuations to navigate the impending economic challenges effectively. The video ends with a cautionary note about the prolonged effects of macroeconomic shifts and a call to prepare for the inevitable economic downturn ahead.