The Macro Moment: Chinese GDP Drops Again
(Edited)
The GDP for the 4th Quarter came in. It was down again, reading 4$ growth.
In this video I discuss how this is a big change from the 7.9% registered in Q2. This is a trend that is very alarming considering China is the largest exporter in the world.
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China loves to demonstrate to the everyone that they can send shockwaves around the world to demonstrate their "Power"! Whether it's Economically, Virally, Militarily or otherwise.
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I am not sure their show of "power" is on display. In fact, Xi is at the WEC talking about how things are going to get worse. Second year in a row and all there are ignoring him.
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It will be interesting to see how Chamath Palihapitiya's latest comments about the Uyghur genocide in China plays during the Olympics
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It is very alarming and they are already having issues servicing debt (Evergrande). Does the GDP affect the discretionary spending of the people in China? They have a lot of people so they also buy some things from all over the world.
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I would say the spending is causing helping to cause the drop in GDP. Demand is waning so it is making it harder to supply. In China, it isnt as bad as the US since it is not a consumption based economy but this is felt throughout the economy.
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Summary:
In this video, Task discusses the latest GDP numbers from China, pointing out a significant decline in growth rates over the last few quarters. He questions the accuracy of Chinese government-reported numbers due to past instances of manipulation. Task emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the trend of declining GDP in China and its potential impact on the global economy, particularly on the US market. He warns about potential consequences such as rising unemployment rates and economic challenges in the coming year.
Detailed Article:
Taskmaster4450, in his latest video, delves into the recently released GDP figures from China, highlighting a downward trend in growth rates. The GDP growth rate for China year over year stood at 4%, showing a decline from previous quarters, with Q3 at 4.9% and Q2 at 7.9%. Task raises concerns about the reliability of Chinese government-generated data, citing past instances of delayed reports and suspected manipulation of figures.
The discussion moves into the potential implications of China's slowing economy on the global stage. Task emphasizes China's role as the leading exporter, consumer of natural resources, and importer of commodities, underscoring the ripple effect that a slowdown in China could have on other countries, especially those supplying resources to China. The impact on the US market is a focal point, with Task suggesting that a decline in China's GDP could signify broader global economic challenges, including supply chain disruptions and inventory issues.
Task draws comparisons to historical growth rates, such as when President Trump celebrated 3% growth in the US economy, highlighting the significance of China's shift from high growth rates to the current 4% level. He warns of the implications of China's heavily indebted economy, stating that higher debt-servicing costs reduce the capital available for economic growth. Task also notes the potential increase in US unemployment rates as a consequence of these economic shifts.
In conclusion, Taskmaster4450 expresses skepticism towards optimistic economic forecasts for 2022, predicting severe economic headwinds and potential challenges ahead. He encourages viewers to focus on emerging metrics and trends rather than relying on past data. The video serves as a cautionary message about the interconnectedness of global economies and the need to pay attention to indicators pointing towards future economic developments. Task signs off, leaving his audience with a thought-provoking outlook on the evolving economic landscape.