My Way Too Early Tesla Production And Delivery Predictions
It is still in the first half of Q2. That said, I will lay out my views on where Tesla is going.
In this discussion I will cover what I think the company will make and deliver for the quarter.
▶️ 3Speak
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Summary:
Task shares his early predictions for Tesla's production and delivery numbers in the second quarter. He predicts that Tesla will produce 500,000 vehicles, with 230,000 from Shanghai, 170,000 from Fremont, and a combined 100,000 from Berlin and Austin. Task also estimates deliveries to be around 450,000, factoring in export dynamics and production trends. He discusses the differences in sales bookings between Tesla and traditional auto companies, emphasizing the need for Tesla's vehicles to be signed, sealed, and delivered to count as sales. Task highlights the importance of considering vehicles in transit when analyzing Tesla's delivery numbers.
Detailed Article:
Task provides insight into his forecasts for Tesla's production and delivery numbers in the second quarter, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty in making predictions. He delves into the distinctive sales model of Tesla compared to legacy auto companies, emphasizing that for Tesla, a sale is only registered once the customer has taken delivery of the vehicle. This key difference informs his approach to estimating Tesla's upcoming numbers.
In terms of production, Task predicts that Tesla will produce 500,000 vehicles in quarter two. He breaks down this estimate by attributing 230,000 vehicles to Shanghai, 170,000 to Fremont, and a combined 100,000 to be produced in Berlin and Austin. He supports his estimates by referencing the reported production numbers from Shanghai in April, around 75,000 vehicles, which align with his projections.
Task also discusses the scaling of production plants in Berlin and Austin throughout the quarter. He suggests that the Berlin plant could reach a sustained run rate of 6,000 vehicles per week, highlighting the potential for increased output as the quarter progresses. By considering the scaling of production capacity, Task offers a comprehensive view of how Tesla may achieve its production targets.
When it comes to deliveries, Task predicts around 450,000 vehicles for the quarter. He factors in the export dynamics of Tesla, highlighting that a portion of vehicles may be in transit at any given time. Task notes Tesla's shift towards a more consistent delivery system, aiming to avoid last-minute rushes to boost quarterly delivery numbers. He draws attention to previous instances where a significant portion of produced vehicles were still in transit at the end of the quarter, impacting delivery figures for that period.
Overall, Task's analysis provides valuable insights into Tesla's upcoming quarter, combining logic and estimation to offer a well-rounded perspective on potential production and delivery outcomes. His breakdown of production by location, consideration of scaling dynamics, and analysis of delivery trends contribute to a comprehensive assessment of Tesla's operations in the coming months.
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