We Dig Into CPI Report To See What Is Happening
This did not come as a great surprise to those who watch this channel. Energy costs were down for the month of July as oil prices dropped.
In this video we dig into the numbers to determine if what we forecast at the beginning of the year is starting to take shape.
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BEER.I wonder when the price of gas is going to come back to something that was realistic...
Still pretty much double here for gas.
What I am loving is that people are like oh yay, it dropped, let's pump it! What they are missing is that the money is still being devalued at 8.5% per year, so we are still getting screwed. The average yearly raise at a decent company is 3%.
Things are not looking good and as I don't want to rush through my daughter's senior year, but I am really looking forward to getting back to the farm so I can get it going into some self sustaining awesomeness, lol. I have been paying attention to the farmers more than any other industry and yeah, the ones that are gov't subsidized are screwed and are being ordered to basically kill all crops.
As we may be temporarily getting some relief in some sectors, the damage, in my dudely opinion, has already been done and the Titanic is starting to sink.
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STOPCheck out the last post from @hivebuzz:
Good to see that the price of food, gasoline etc dropped in price but not here in Africa. The economy situation here is bad
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The demand destruction is real because people don't have as much discretionary income to spend. I have seen quite a few videos about the car market and I have seen some of them even buy more lots to store cars because they expect a lot of people to lose their cars (people who didn't feel like making their monthly payments).
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Summary:
Task discusses the recent CPI report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, focusing on the unexpected decrease in the inflation rate from the previous month. He highlights how many people do not fully understand the complex factors at play in the economy, emphasizing the importance of analyzing detailed reports rather than just headlines. Task delves into specific areas affected by the CPI report, such as food prices, energy commodities, and the automotive industry. He also touches upon the impact of commodity prices, especially oil prices, on various sectors like housing and transportation services. Task ends by hinting at potential trends to watch for in the upcoming months and concludes with observations on the changing dynamics in the economy.
Detailed Analysis:
Task starts by addressing the CPI report and the surprise surrounding the decrease in the inflation rate. He criticizes the lack of understanding among most people and stresses the importance of looking beyond headlines to grasp the true implications of economic reports. He points out that food prices have seen significant increases, attributing this partly to energy prices, which witnessed a decline in the last month. Task then delves into detailed statistics, highlighting the rise in energy prices over the past year and the potential lag in food prices compared to energy prices.
The discussion moves on to specific sectors affected by the CPI report, such as the automotive industry. Task mentions the drop in prices for used cars and trucks, as well as new vehicles, hinting at a potential shift in pricing trends. He also mentions the decline in apparel prices for the month, contrasting with the overall yearly increase. Task emphasizes the interconnections between different economic sectors, such as how energy prices impact various industries like food and transportation.
Task further analyzes the broader economic landscape, pointing out the consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the United States. He challenges the notion of an overheated economy, stating that the economy's actual performance by volume was poor despite price surges. Task discusses the disparity between goods and services in terms of recovery post-pandemic, showcasing that services have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. He also touches upon the impact of high travel costs on transportation services like airlines.
In the latter part of the video, Task speculates on future trends based on commodity prices, particularly oil prices, and their potential effects on food prices and other sectors. He suggests that demand destruction is becoming evident in real estate and automotive supply chains, hinting at possible shifts in housing and car prices. Task refers to insights from industry experts about a potential crash in the automotive sector and concludes by reiterating his earlier forecasts about the challenging economic conditions in the second half of the year.