Speculating on Stellar XLM and Looking At Past Performance.

I've been a pretty big fan of XLM since it was originally listed on Bittrex and I discovered it was Jed McCaleb's company and possibly a Ripple competitor. I jumped in and it was one of my larger positions in my portfolio. Back then I was still trading pennies and when I finally decided to toss a paycheck into crypto, XLM was one of the bigger positions I bought.

I started near the beginning as a hedge against my XRP position and paid under a penny a piece for them. Since that time I've bought and sold them many times. With the current rally, I thought I'd take a look at past performance and speculate on where we could end up in 2021.

DISCLAIMER: Should go without saying but for legal reasons you've been warned.

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Disclaimer: Nothing here is meant as financial advice. Seek a duly licensed financial advisor for financial advice, not some guy on the internets who refers to himself as The Dood or some other anonymous cartoon character.

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Let's start with the 1 week chart showing the intense 2017 rally.

Anyone that purchased Stellar XLM under a penny was pretty happy when things started rocking and rolling in the 2017 bull run. All at once coins just started rallying and adjusting to the BTC rally. Looking at this 1 week chart, the giant green dildo represents a price spike from around 1 cent to an ATH of 51 cents.

This spike happened in a matter of a week and spikes like this weren't uncommon in 2017. I dumped about half my position between 40 and 50 cents.

Current market conditions remind me a lot of 2017 heading into 2018.

The tall golden colored spike between 2017 and 2018 was XLM rallying in BTC price. The price dropped in Satoshi's, then as the bitcoin price rally really kicked in towards the end of 2017 many of the alts adjusted accordingly and this time the blue spike in USD climbed along with the price in Satoshi.

Going towards the end of the graph in 2021 we see a huge spike in USD price in blue, but Satoshi price really hasn't moved. I'm seeing this in so many charts right now. The price in satoshi is rising in USD value with the rising bitcoin price but it's barely moving in sats. Many alts haven't even began to adjust in Satoshi's.

XLM is a top 20 altcoin traded on well over 30 exchanges under several different trading pairs. This coin is easily available to a lot of people with a daily trade volume in the high six figures pushing on seven figures.

I should disclaim myself here and say I did buy back what I sold in 2018 and also added to my position. In the spirit of full disclosure I hold a nice position of these

In 2021 we've already beat our ATH in USD value topping out around 60 cents USD on most exchanges but have barely budged in satoshi.

Looking at the chart I'm calling this the bottom around 800 satoshi. If this chart decides to adjust and XLM decides to rally in satoshi there is soooo much room for growth here. Being conservative at today's BTC price if we hit 2800 sat range we're going to be looking at about $1.60 USD per XLM. That's being conservative. If we beat the previous ATH in sats we're going to be looking at 6000 sat XLM or around $3 USD / XLM easily.

Part of my strategy on this play is also taking into consideration the fact that many people are predicting $100K BTC if this rally continues through the year. In that event we could be looking at much higher prices for XLM if the prices adjust accordingly.

For this reason, I'm still holding a nice portion of my position. I had to take some gains, because it would be foolish to leave the unrealized gains in USD on the table. I'm still holding most of my investment though waiting for an adjustment in sats. For the most part my position is paid for and I see no reason to sell in what's shaping up to be a really strong crypto market.

Obviously a huge BTC correction or black swan event could put a huge monkey wrench in this strategy. However, I'm taking that chance and hanging on to the rest of this position waiting for better prices. I see a lot of room for potential growth and think this is a strategy worth pursuing. If I'm wrong, I'll hodl for a few more years.

Nothing here is meant as financial advice. This is simply a strategy I'm working on and thought I'd share it with the community in the spirit of conversation. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor for financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and I don't pretend to be one on the internet. I'm just a Dood having a little fun trading stocks and shitcoins. Sometimes I even manage to show a profit ;) other times I Don't.

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