Crypto Analysis | Bear Market Ends & Macro Outlook!

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

I am officially calling it: The Bear Market has ended

Last year I made a post in summer in which I suggested the bear market had already ended or would end at the end of 2022. Just like every cycle before, for some reason bear markets end at the turn of the year in December or January. It seems that this cycle was no exception.

The charts speak clearly on this. First let's look at monthly chart. You can see here the trend lines which have reliably predicted the end of a bear market. While there are several more months of sideways movement, the price has always recovered after reaching this "support". Furthermore, you can see the time span from the top to the bottom of a cycle which has been between 365 and 426 days:

Also, the RSI goes into bear market territory somewhere between 40-50 and stays there for several months. There is generally a "U-shaped" recovery. As you can see the RSI is now slowly climbing above this level again.

Amazingly, the trend lines drawn in the first chart can be extended to give us a good estimate of where the next cycle will peak! You can see it here:

So far it has worked like clockwork. There were also a bit more than a 1000 days from the bottom to the top of the cycle. Everything is pointing to the end of 2025 for the peak of the next cycle. The peak is, however, a bit anti-climactic: the chart suggests a high between 130-200k. This is not very amazing in terms of potential gains for this cycle. It's only about a 10x from the lows.

But a 10x is still amazing as an investment in about 3 years... It also shows that now is a good time to get involved with alts. There are far more potential gains on e.g. Hive than there is on Bitcoin. But you have to be prepared for the greater volatility as well!

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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