Crypto Analysis | DXY Pattern Confirmed and Macro Outlook!
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The DXY has been on a bullish trajectory for a while now
And while at the beginning of the year it looked like the dollar could fall below 0.9 I made the prediction that we would soon see 120 over a half a year ago which is one of the most successful predictions I have made. With a high of 114 we have a bit more to go, but there will most definitely be a big drop before that.
As the DXY has such a strong 1-2-3 pattern charting it is actually not very difficult. The highs currently are the result of being in the final phase of that pattern, i.e. the "3". This is the chart which perfectly anticipated the run up to current levels:
The highs of "3" are predicted mainly by the yellow trend line from 1 and 2. It could be, however, that the Index will fall a bit lower or higher around it, but it will probably be somewhere around 120. The current chart looks like this:
As you can see from the first chart I am expecting a 1-2-3 pattern also for the top of the meso "3". Let's have a close up of the coming years. Here we cans see three red trend lines when we draw a line connecting the lows of the latest impulse wave. Whenever you can draw something like this (three trend lines with an increasing slope with the last one being almost vertical) you can be 99% certain that a bigger correction is coming. The price increase is just not sustainable. Since we also intercepted the yellow line which is a resistance we can assume a correction soon occurring. This will be the "1" of the micro 1-2-3 pattern.
The correction will probably go to the lowest support line at around 105 perhaps at the end of this year. The exact way this will play out is of course ambiguous, but I would expect a general pattern like this:
The whole 1-2-3 pattern could play out over about 1 year. If we get such a confirmation I would then expect a strong macro correction which would first take the index to sub 100 in 2024 and then after a smaller bounce a continuation of that correction in the years ahead. Essentially this macro correction could take us back to the 0.6-0.7 levels in the next 5 to 10 years as seen in the first chart! If so, it might be a wise decision to get out of the dollar starting in 2024/25.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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You have actually done a great analysis, I think the best idea is to wait back and see if the analysis would actually come into place by then
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STOPYour prediction may be right but I'm not entirely sure you can do technical analysis on the DXY because the Fed has such massive influence on it.
that's true, but that is "chart magic" For some reasons these things often work which means you can use this chart to predict what the FED will be doing :P