Crypto Analysis | Important weekly/monthly close for Bitcoin!

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

Bitcoin is closing in on some important candles

I can't believe that my last post about Bitcoin was one month ago! Back then we outlined two major scenarios: A bearish one as well as a bullish one with me personally leaning towards the latter. Since then, amazingly, nothing much has actually changed. There has not been a movement so far which would confirm either scenario. But we are coming up on an important weekly as well as a monthly candle which could be a good indication of where we are heading.

Since the last post I also came across another important trend line that I had not yet considered. It is actually really impressive going back all the way to 2013! See for yourself:

As you can see the trend line has so far been confirmed rather by wicks than by candles, but this just means that we have to look at both. So far BTC is holding at this support, but as is usual only barely. It wouldn't be interesting if price would remain above the support, right? :D In other words, if BTC closes above this trend line today it could be a catalyst to propel price further up, similarly to what we saw in in 2015.

Another interesting new insight came from drawing a tend line from each bull cycle top to the bottom of the bear market. One can then see a similar price movement in the form of the arrow drawn in the chart. First price crosses under it, then over it and then finally retests it. This has been a very consistent pattern and there is a good chance it could repeat. In fact, it already has been repeated, the question is only if it will be confirmed (and not again retest it). After this pattern the market has so far always transitioned into a sideways movement (no lower lows!)

On the weekly chart, we can draw a somewhat weak trend like as a support coming from 2019. It seems to have some significance and so far has not closed under it. But you can also see that there is extreme price pressure coming from the trend line from the previous highs. Price has run out of space in the resulting wedge and there would be a big impulse wave should it break to the top. Keep in mind that we are now already 1 year into the bear market, and that bear markets have never really lasted longer than that. What comes after that is consolidation phase/ sideways movement for several months or even a year.

Another important clue comes from @edicted who mentioned in his previous post that the volume for BTC is currently very elevated. I didn't notice this as I was mostly using Binance charts which now has massive volume due to their removal of trading fees for the BTC pair. On the coinbase chart it becomes more obvious:

If we look at current trading volume, we can see that it is comparable to bull market tops as well as bear market crashes. What is unusual as well is that it is so prolonged and still increasing. Whatever comes next (a crash or a breakout to the top) will definitely increase volume even further. All of this means that there is currently massive interest in Bitcoin, perhaps contrary to what we often hear as the mantra of "bitcoin is dead" etc. It also means that there is massive support at current levels with bears not being able to push the price further down. I think that only a black swan type of event could topple prices significantly. In other words, Bitcoin is oversold and there are plenty who see this as a buying opportunity.

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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