Crypto Analysis | Rebound or 22k?
Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
The crash came, were you surprised?
After having seen the insight from this chart in the last post it seemed clear that Bitcoin was/is heading for a bigger correction. But as I pointed out last time it is still not completely clear if we are heading straight to 22k or if there will be one more bigger push upwards. Even after the market mayhem yesterday there is still a chance for a bullish reversal. Although it is unclear how much momentum that would have.
The reason I am not ruling out the bullish reversal scenario is that we still haven't made a lower low. The pattern is still bullish with a new higher high established in November and a higher low established yesterday. Obviously we can only call it a higher low once there is an actual trend reversal (on other words a green weekly candle). But at least there is a potential for that to happen. If yesterday prices dropped below 28k, I would officially call this a bear market.
Bitcoin often surprises everyone at the moment when the majority thinks a certain trend has been established. The current narrative is that we are in a bear market. But what if price now goes up and breaks the resistance at ~42k? Everyone would turn bullish again. So it's best not to swim with the mass mentality.
The support at 29k was almost a certainty with an obvious trend line established over several years. You can see it better in this chart:
I pointed to this in in the post "will we have a 100k bitcoin summer?" and you can see the chart here once again:
So let's revisit the current probabilities which are in my opinion most likely. The blue path outlined above has been falsified which still leaves us with the purple and green ones. I think we can state with relative big confidence that if prices can't move up and break out above ~42k Bitcoin will be heading for ~22k which is the strong support coming from the orange trend line (see first chart as well). It will very likely not drop further and therefore start the next bull cycle (which is earlier than in previous cycles).
However, as stated Bitcoin often surprises everyone by doing the opposite of what people expect. For this reason I am still pointing to the bullish reversal scenario seen here in purple. There are quite a few hints that this would be at around 100k, but it would come later than I first argued as I thought that we would see it for this summer. Instead, it would transpire at around fall.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
Congratulations, you have made an interesting description of the situation. I am much more focused on HIVE (which still follows the Bitcoin style). Do you think this situation is a good opportunity to accumulate HIVE?
thanks! I think 30-50 cents would be a pretty safe/good accumulation zone right now if you think the bears will win over the next few months
https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-the-ultimate-bear-scenario-for-hive
do you think HIVE will go down again?
depends on the time scale :D
Wow, thats a drop, but I know it's been there before, and I would like to get some Hive that cheap.
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It's nice to have analysis when in a bear market. I know there's still possiblity for BTC to dip further. I looking forward to your next report, so I can get hints !
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Agreed.
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@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 28/48) Liquid rewards.
I think I agree that it looks like it will go lower and I will start DCA into BTC.
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Earlier I was hoping BTC won't fall below 33k but lo and behold. You gave some pretty good advice here, about not following the crowd mentality when there's a pick. The market is bleeding red.....I just hope BTC doesn't go below 29k.
Thanks for the analysis @tobetada
pretty sure we will see 22k in the coming months... (see first chart)
I'm betting on 29K as support, from that point to the moon
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Check out the last post from @hivebuzz:
I am never surprised by bitcoins volatility, but sometimes surprised by the amount and depth of the drops. But I look at like this…Inever thought I would be able to buy bitcoin below 30k again when Bitcoin was 60k and now I have the chance.
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