Crypto Analysis | What's Up With Bitcoin?

11 months ago

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

I can't believe it has been over 6 weeks since my last update

Time flies. I last left you with an outlook for Bitcoin reaching 35k-45k. While (as so often) the market moves slower than anticipated, price seems to be still in an uptrend. But we'll know for sure if we do not make a lower low. One caveat is that volume has been down for a while. Compare the last weeks/months with December/January when we saw the market bottom:

It's about half of what we saw back then. Not quite sure for why we are seeing about a 50% decline in trading, there could be many reasons (not all of them bearish).

Next up the daily chart. Here we can see that price is still in the ascending channel and about to test the support. Up or down is the question like always and while I can't give you a clear answer, let's see what the chart speaks...

Going to the weekly chart might give us more clues. Back in February I made this chart:

We can see that price has not exactly followed the path, but I did get the general direction of the movement correct. If price does not continue to climb, however, the peak was at around 31k, instead of my first target of 35k (still not too bad). But I still think that we can reach 35k. We have had so far 2 pushes upward and if you have studied BTC's chart you probably saw that price likes to moves in waves of 3. Therefore we could see something like this:

A third push upwards getting rejected by the somewhat obvious resistance at 35k. The general shape of the movement does not change, however. After the peak (like outlined above this chart), I see price falling down back to the macro support. And as often this would coincide with the end of the year.

Conclusion

The scenario presented above seems almost too obvious which is why reality could deviate from it. If it does happen, we are likely in for a bigger surprise in 2024 and beyond. Bitcoin always likes to surprise... Therefore it would not be surprising, if price does reach 45k after all or tests the macro support in the coming months already. But even so, the market bottom is quite clearly marked and 2023 and beyond should overall continue with an upward moving market.

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!