The economic situation as the end of 2022 approaches
The global economy accepts different scenarios in the year 2022, in light of overlapping effects, on top of which is the Corona pandemic and its accompanying repercussions, while the recovery movement slowed down in 2021 with the self-imposed state of “uncertainty”, as a result of the developments of the pandemic and the emergence of new variants.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts indicate that the global economy will achieve a growth rate of 4.9 percent during the year 2022, compared to a growth rate estimated by the Fund at 5.9 percent in 2021.
Regarding the most prominent challenges and opportunities awaiting the global economy in the coming year, Tariq Al-Rifai, CEO of the Corum Center for Strategic Studies in London, said in statements that “the expected risks in 2022 are linked to the extent of central banks’ ability to control the global economy and financial markets, with inflation rates continuing.” high amid policies opposing interest rate hikes in Europe in particular.
The economist expects that, in parallel with the rise in inflation, "major central banks will be forced to raise the interest rate in the second or third quarter of the year, and we will see fluctuations and fluctuations in the financial markets, and it is possible that there will be a decline in global growth, which may reach the point of stagnation (which is linked to the nature of financial policies). and economics taken).
The economist refers to three factors that prompted the current high inflation rates, the first of which is the injection of liquidity by central governments, as well as direct support from governments during the Corona crisis to try to recover economically and maintain growth, and the third of these factors is related to bottlenecks in supply chains, which are expected To continue in 2022.
The expert referred to the US Federal Reserve's decision to reduce the asset purchase program, a program that is believed to have led to a bubble in global assets, as well as high-risk speculation, especially in cryptocurrencies, but he believes that this positive step affects the economic scene.
On the other hand, the economist says in statements to "Sky News Arabia" that in 2022 the growth rate is expected to reach 4.9 percent, which is lower than in 2021, but much better than the year 2020, which witnessed a contraction of 3 percent, speaking At the same time, it revealed positive and negative factors that would give indications about the nature of economic performance in the year 2022.
Notable determinants
Among the positive factors is the expectation of an increase in the percentage of people receiving vaccines, which in developed countries has reached more than 60 percent, while it is still lower in other countries.
The most prominent challenges facing the global economy is the almost double rise in energy prices, which affects economic growth and leads to increases in the prices of food, transportation and other materials.
In addition to these factors, high inflation rates, which have exceeded unprecedented levels in three decades in America, with its also rising around the world, in addition to an increase in unemployment rates, and a sharp rise in debt due to the Corona pandemic.
Al-Assaf believes that the second half of 2022 may witness a clearer improvement compared to the first half, as the pace of growth accelerates with the return of life, the movement of global transport and tourism, and relative stability in prices, with the increase in the number of restaurants.
Changes on the horizon
The economist, Sayed Khadr, believes that the global economy in the year 2022 will witness many changes, all of which are related to the developments of the Corona virus and the nature of the new variants that may pose a great danger and threat to the global economy, in the event of an exacerbation of its danger and the increase in the rates of virus spread, and in light of the lack of economic recovery in 2021 due to the developments of the pandemic and the accompanying repercussions and crises, such as oil prices, which is the ongoing crisis in 2022, which in turn affects global prices in various sectors, especially food prices.
And Khadr indicated, in statements to , that the economic crisis left by the pandemic is completely different from the economic crises that the world witnessed in previous periods, and he succeeded in recovering from it by following various financial policies, given that the current crisis is linked to the most important element in the production process, which is the human being. Thus, the risk of the spread of the epidemic and its continuation remains a major factor threatening the paths of the global economy.
