Splinterlands - perfect storm incoming?
Hi, fellow Splinterlands players.
I have been playing Splinterlands since July 2021. I know, the worst time that I could possibly pick to start playing Splinterlands. But who could predict that time was top of the crypto market and that everything would go down 90% shortly after? I surely didn't.
I started investing, not much maybe 100 USD, and I was buying cards. You would earn some DEC and you could buy a nice card every 1 or 2 weeks. But that was not the case for long. Cards skyrocketed! One day you were short 100 DEC that you expected to get in 2 days. Then, in two days you were short 500 DEC for the same card. It was nearly impossible to build a good deck without heavy investment as assets just kept getting more expensive. My prediction is that this is going to happen again, in the near future with all Splinterlands assets!
My main point here is that Splinterlands is implementing all the hard choices during the Bear market. By doing this when the Bull market starts we will have a healthy game ready for success.
How is Splinterlands setting up for a perfect storm?
Some hard choices had to be made in the last year by the Splinterlands development team. I remember that at that time I was not supporting all of their decisions but I kept playing the game and investing into it.
It wasn't fair that people who do not invest in the game acquire DEC, SPS, or even cards as a reward. Therefore Starter/Ghost cards feature has been implemented, which reduced the number of Reward Shares you got if you have a card that is lower level than it should be for a league in which you are currently playing. I was not happy about that but I understood why this change is implemented. It was mainly done to counter bots in the lower leagues but it also works as a tool that helps us to keep the value of the cards stable. It affected both the regular market and the rental market and now after a few months, it seems like a good decision.
SPS Battle Requierments
Not that long ago we replaced Collectio Power with SPS Staked Requirements. More about that you can find in this article: https://peakd.com/splinterlands/@splinterlands/sps-staking-multiplier-for-ranked-battle-rewards. By doing that we finally got a use case for SPS besides Staking Rewards. This change had a positive effect on the SPS price as it SPS went from 0.015 USD to 0.024 USD. This is another measure that will enable keeping SPS assets value at reasonable levels. The good thing is that we are now able to rent SPS in almost the same way we are able to rent cards. It would be nice if Splinterlands could implement a more sophisticated SPS market, but for now, this market will do just fine.
Soulbound Reward cards
Another change was implemented to counter BOT farms. We can't just sell cards right after we get those, but now those rewards cards are locked for some time. We will be able to unlock them one day for a certain fee that we should pay in DEC. This will prevent bots from farming cards and it will make cards more valuable as we will have to invest some DEC into those cards if we want to sell them. It feels bad when you get GF legendary cards that you can't sell so you could invest that money into other cards, SPS, or whatever you need. But I am waiting the day when that will be possible. The good thing is that BOT farms are nerfed as those can't extract that much value anymore.
All those changes were at least a little bit controversial and they surely negatively affected some players that may left the game. On the other side, there were all really hard changes that had to be made, and that as a result encourage some players to leave the game. That could be seen if you take a look at a number of battles in the last 6 months:
6 months ago number of battles per day was 5135118. Today that number is way lower, at 504022 per day. That number is that much lower because of a new system that does not allow an infinitive number of battles per day that bots used to get on the top of the leaderboards. So lower number of battles does not mean that the game is falling apart. It just means bots farm are not playing as much as they used to. But yes, some bot farms probably left the game, at least for now.
The same goes for the number of daily active accounts. The average of 95000 over the last 6 months is not that bad. Actually, it is very good for a crypto game in the Bear market. Last few days there is around 50-60k active daily users. We can probably say that most of the bot farms already left and that only we maybe remained in the game. And that is a good thing.
Now Splinterlands marketing team should figure out how to bring those Daily Average Account numbers over 100k. Because we do need new players and they will come, if not now then in the Bull market. But we want those players to be happy and that they earn something which will make them stay in the game. If they come at the peak as I did they will probably spend some money and then leave the game. We don't want that. We want players that will play this game for a long time.
The good(amazing) parts
Everything that you read so far could be taken as a negative. And it probably is. Cuts should have been made in order to create a healthy game. And now we have a good foundation at least if we are talking about the economy. Yes, there are other things that should be improved like acquiring new players, visually improving the game, animating the game, developing better mobile APPs, developing a launcher, implementing Battle Pass, and better arts(like Marvel Snap) and so on and so on. The good thing is that there is a lot of room to grow and a lot of potential. But what is happening now?
Chaos Legion and Riftwatchers are now old news. Everyone has Chaos Legion cards as those are very cheap while Riftwatchers are more expensive. Those who wanted some cards already bought them and now people are preparing for new expansions. You can find Chaos Legion packs on the market for 1.2 USD and Riftwatcher packs for 3.7 USD. Chaos Legion packs at this moment look like a very good deal.
What is exciting are the new expansions that will hit the market in the next 6 months. A new mini-expansion is announced and it should land by the end of the summer. That could be exciting! Rebellion is something that we are talking about for a long time. It should land by the end of Q1 2024. Rebellion could be the last expansion in the Bear market and therefore you should try to build a decent deck with that one because after that prices could skyrocket. And we all know that portfolios are made when everything is cheap and when no one is buying.
Phase 1.5 should land in a week or two. And that is really huge for Splinterlands. You will not have to use bots anymore if you don't want to compete with other amazing players. You can just stake your most valuable cards on a plot of land and harvest resources that you will then be able to sell for some DEC. I expect that you will be able to earn a lot, especially in the early days. I hope that you are prepared for this expansion. Then Land 2.0 will be something way bigger that we can't even imagine right now. The golden time of the Splinterlands is coming and you better prepare.
There is always a comparison between Splinterlands and maybe the most popular TCG game out there, Hearthstone. That is why Hearthstones Arena mode is taken as an example of what to build in Splinterlands. Developers admitted that they are looking at Arena but also Battle Pass where you would get rewards in a fashion similar to the Hearthstone model. It is encouraging that developers are looking at some of the most popular titles in the TCG universe and trying to build an even better model for this game.
Perfect storm incoming?
If we take all this into consideration then we should have a bright future in the Splinterverse.
Developers already created a healthy foundation and we must admit that even though our rewards may be smaller, Splinterlands is in a way better state than it was 6 months ago.
Amazing things are about to happen with Land, new expansions, Soulkeep, and all other things that are coming into Splinterverse. Is this the time when you should invest heavily because everything is so cheap? Maybe, I don't know. I know that I am trying and SPS and cards are now looking sweeter than ever before. By the end of the year, we should have another part of the picture. We will see how much players will use land and how the economy will react to it. I know that I am really excited about the times ahead.
Could SPS go to 1 USD in a year? Can our portfolios be 10x or maybe 100x in the next year? It is possible. Things are looking very good. Just remember, when everyone starts posting how they are getting 2 USD per battle or 200, 300, or 500 USD per season, it is not time to buy anything. Then it is time to sell and prepare for another round.
Please, do your own research before investing. This post is not financial advice!
This presents an opportune moment to strategically acquire new cards and revitalize your deck. It is essential to exercise caution, as the influx of new players can potentially lead to heightened demand and subsequent price fluctuations within the market. For those who have not yet embarked on their Splinterlands journey, now is an ideal juncture to seize the benefits of acquiring exceptional cards at special prices. I invite you to join the Splinterlands Discord community, where you can gather further insights and delve deeper into this captivating realm of gameplay.
Official Splinterlands Discord: https://discord.gg/A6yNcVqbU6
If you are new here
Splinterlands is an exceptional NFT trading card game that operates on the play-to-earn model. For newcomers, this implies that engaging in the game not only offers an immersive and enjoyable experience but also presents an opportunity to generate income through the acquisition of SPS. If you have yet to create an account, I highly recommend registering using my referral link. In doing so, kindly reach out to me via direct message, and upon confirming your presence on my referral list, I will gladly provide you with 100 DEC to facilitate your initial foray into the game.
Have fun and see you on the battlefield.