Football and Gambling - Doing Things I Was Never Much Into

After my bike trip I am now back to spending more time online, so I got to open pages I have been ignoring for months. Not because I am so excited about them, much rather just because they are still there among my bookmarks. And there is some money involved... Take Polymarket for example.

A Bit of Experimenting

I started looking into it back in February, simply because it was new and much talked about. I even gave it a try, with a $10 deposit. I made some bets, won some small change on obvious predictions, took some risk, and made some losses. Most famously, I put money on Orbán Viktor remaining the Hungarian Prime Minister, even though I was just as excited about him being deposed. But it just seemed like he had cemented himself way too much into power for it be realistic. Well, the rest is history, as we say, and I was clearly wrong. Never mind. I still had eight bucks left.

I never saw my first and only deposit as anything more than a one-time playing fee. That means, I never intended to get anything out of it. And since then even my initial interest has faded, realizing that it's most useful for insider gambling. After logging in today, and seeing how my portfolio that used to be counted in USDC has been converted into ... some other coin I had never heard of, my decision has been confirmed: I'm going to use up my deposit and get out of it! But not without enjoying myself a bit first.

It's the Round of 32 in the World Cup

And what occasion offers itself more ideally for making bets, than the ongoing Fifa World Cup? Not that I'm an expert on soccer, by any means. Though some national teams are clearly more likely than others to win, there are a whole bunch of wild cards, and unexpected turns. How is that Curacao even qualified while Italy didn't? Or that Cape Verde got even this far? I'm not a fan of either football or of nation states, but like so many others, during the World Cup I can get into some flag waving. After all, I've got a few ones in my collection...

New Zealand, a country I enjoyed very much and the place my parents call home, is out already. Hungary, the country of my origin, never even made it. Germany, whose passport I carry, is obviously in, though I find them generally too strong to deserve my support. (But their loss against Ecuador suggests otherwise this time.) However, the country whose flag I am waving with both hands right now, is that of my chosen home, México! Their performance so far has been splendid, and I really hope they go far. As far as possible before facing the inevitable...

Where My Money Is Riding On

So I started out with some realistic bets: Canada winning against South Africa. This was also a bit influenced by the fact that my bike trip started out on Vancouver Island. I know, you may be thinking: That's not the way the way to make sports bets! and you're right. But as I explained, the idea is to have some fun while using up my Polymarket portfolio.

Next, I put a dollar on Germany against Paraguay and one the Netherlands against Morocco. Both of them very likely wins, and they may lead to these two rival teams to contend against each other. (Though I'm still not sure who I would be rooting for, if that happens.)

For the game Mexico against Ecuador I'm obviously supporting the Mexicans. Even though Ecuador is proving to be a worthy underdog, and if they were to be playing any other team, my money would be totally on them. Though I also believe Mexico is likely to win this one.

Where I'm taking obvious risks is the France - Sweden game, where I have put a dollar on Sweden, and the USA against Bosnia, where I am in full support of the underdog. The first one is literally a gamble, while in the second one I simply believe the US deserves to lose against a less formidable power. It would have been nice to see a US - Iran match, though that was clearly too much to ask for.

That leaves me with two dollars to bet. Am I going to put one on Japan against Brazil? A probable loss, but having spent a year there I have more to do with it than Brazil. And how about Norway against Cote D'Ivoire? Again the underdog, or the one whose fans have this cool viking rowing culture? Also, the latter one could get me a win for a next bet...! I know, this is how gambling can get into your head, hehehe... Or I could simply sit these out, seeing how things develop over the next few days.

We'll see how things turn out. For now I'm excited to watch the South Africa - Canada match. Tomorrow I'll be traveling, so unless they transmit the game on the bus (which I can totally see, at least for the Mexico - Ecuador game) I will analyze the result.

Update June 28: Watching Canada play 0-0 for most of the time against South Africa, only to win in the last moment, was the most exciting game I can recall! Could it be because I had a chance of winning seventy cents I never wanted, or maybe losing a dollar I had already given up on?

Update June 30: Both Germany and Holland were eliminated while I was on the bus. And no, these games were not important enough to be displayed on the screens. But what an irony in both cases. Brazil is still in, and our comment exchange with @uwelang shows how I was just about to bet on Japan after they scored their goal. But no, that would have been scrambling, and in the end I would have lost that bet. Norway, however, turned out to be victorious. And got me a slight win. Now, let's see how Mexico performs.

Update July 3: Mexico won as expected, and celebrated accordingly. (More on that topic later.) Also, England beat Congo, which earned me a few cents. No big deal. The more exciting game was Senegal - Belgium where it seemed like I would make a bigger win... until Belgium ended up winning, and I lost. And finally even my pick of the underdog Bosnia didn't pan out, not that there was much of a chance there. Yesterday's games I did not bet on, but today: I expect Egypt to beat the Aussies, simply because they've done it so well to the Kiwis. Also, Colombia, which I'm connected to in various ways, should win against Ghana (which they are expected to anyway).