BTC - Measured move would take us to $17k
Bitcoin may be primed for a move back over the year to date highs
With the month of October closing, we also closed the book on the monthly candle stick.
Ever since we ran up in early 2019 and started pulling back, it has looked like bitcoin has been in a bull flag formation on the monthly chart.
Check it out:
With the October close being what it was, it looks as though bitcoin may have finally broken out of that monthly flag channel to the upside.
What does that mean?
Usually, and I use that word loosely as these things don't always work out, when price breaks out of a bull flag like this one to the upside, it often goes up in a similar amount to the original run up, also known as the flag pole.
In this case, the original run up started around $4k and ran up to almost $14k. That would give us a measured move of about $10k or so.
We can then take that measured move and apply it to the lows of this recent pullback, which was around $7k or so.
Which means, the measured move from this bull flag breakout would take us up near $17k or so.
Awesome, but we do have a couple hurdles first
The first hurdle is going to be really leaving that down sloping channel/flag behind.
Right now we appear to be sitting just outside of it, but we need to hold outside of it and start trending up soon.
Then, we will need to break that resistance around $14k.
Often when these types of setups fail, they rally up to the top of the flag pole and then get rejected from there.
In our case that would be around the $14k level.
These are things to be watching over the coming months as we wind the year down and inch our way closer to the next halving.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
Thanks for this detailed and lucid analysis. Let's hope that we breach the $17k mark soon.
Might take a few more months, but I could see it happening by the halving in May.
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Good info. Thanks! 🐱🏍
You got it.
This comes at a very very crucial time.
Right at the beginning of November?
Hm, yeah... there is a lot of momentum here.
Yep, you have been beating the drum on November for a while now. In fact, if I recall looking at some stats, November is the best performing month for bitcoin returns as well. Though, I will need to verify that.
I posted the chart a few times... it wasn't easy for me to find.
The average return in November is 75.5%, but the information is greatly skewed because 2013 saw gains of 450%. Also, the biggest gains normally occur 6-12 months AFTER the halving event.
However, I think we'll see big Winter gains because Summer was
supposedto be a flat. Everyone thought Bitcoin would have the same pattern of being boring for a year after the bear market was finally over. That didn't happen, and I believe it's due to the impending economic collapse. It was obviously also due to the speculative institutional Bakkt dump and dump but I think that incident was made far more volatile due to economic climate.A Bitcoin halving happens once every 4 years while a recession only happens a third as often. I think the recession is far more bullish than a halving. Just like Bitcoin's first halving, the recession will not be priced in early because the market doesn't know for sure that it's a big deal. In fact, many people are bearish on the recession for Bitcoin. This will cause some really big FOMO as stocks begin to crash but crypto is still going up.
I believe I saw a chart that showed the average return as well as the median return and I think November was still the best or second best month, but again just going off memory.
Thanks for the informative post once again, @jrcornel :)
I do see the strong possibility of it going up to $17k by the May 2020 halving.
Though for now, I guess, the biggest hurdle would be getting past $10k. Once it reaches 5 digits, and stays there, it could re-confirm the return of the bull run.
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Yep, there is that hurdle as well. Probably should have mentioned that one.
Nice analysis. I think it might still correct a bit during Nov-Dec 2019 before it gears up for the next big bull run in 2020.
It's possible, though @edicted will debate you all day on that one!
I can already see a lot more FOMO emerging in the crypto community, it is indeed, as you said, a matter of time...
The tide does seem to be turning for all of crypto, little by little, things have stopped going down and are now showing some signs of life again.
Exactly!!